The Athletic has reside protection of the second launch of the 2025 School Soccer Playoff rankings.
In a season that has featured loads of surprises, Week 11 didn’t have many on the prime of the rankings, at the very least by way of pure wins and losses. Indiana and Oregon barely survived Large Ten highway assessments, however survive they did. There was a prime 10 staff that misplaced, however BYU was a 10-point underdog at Texas Tech, so the Pink Raiders’ convincing win wasn’t technically all that stunning.
In consequence, the highest of the percentages board to win the nationwide title remained principally the identical. Ohio State remains to be the favourite with +200 odds on BetMGM. The Buckeyes are 9-0 after beating Purdue 34-10 (in a sport that was 3-0 Purdue after 1 / 4).
By surviving at Penn State and being the primary staff within the nation to succeed in 10 wins, Indiana is seen because the second-most possible nationwide champion at +600. The shut name didn’t dissuade the sportsbooks’ view of the Hoosiers, which had been +700 every week in the past.
Texas A&M bought a pleasant surge, shifting up from +1100 to +700 with a convincing win at Missouri. The Aggies handed Alabama, which dropped from +700 to +800 after beating LSU 20-9. The Crimson Tide gained and lined the unfold (barely), however nonetheless moved down a bit. Go determine.
Georgia and Notre Dame stay subsequent at +1000.
Indiana didn’t drop with its shut name, however Oregon did. The Geese wanted a last-second subject aim to win by two at Iowa and dropped to +1500 to win the nationwide title. Oregon is coping with plenty of accidents to receivers, which isn’t serving to efficiency or projection.
As for odds to make the School Soccer Playoff, Texas A&M joined Ohio State and Indiana as groups which can be off the board so far as CFP betting. All three are digital locks. With undefeated data, these groups are clearly in their very own tier for now. Talking of tiers, let’s break down the CFP contenders into tiers and see what the percentages need to say about every staff’s possibilities.
Undefeated groups: Already in
Ohio State
Indiana
Texas A&M
Indiana already has 10 wins, Ohio State is 9-0 with two video games towards bottom-half Large Ten groups arising, and Texas A&M is 9-0 with a sport towards an FCS staff nonetheless on its schedule. All are off the board, shifting on.
One-loss groups wanting good
Alabama (-2000)
Georgia (-2000)
Ole Miss (-2000)
Texas Tech (-1100)
Oregon (-500)
The SEC trio is the probably to make it amongst this group as a result of they seem like the probably to get in with 10-2 data. Alabama has a troublesome sport towards Oklahoma this week, however is favored by almost a landing and even with out that sport would solely need to beat Japanese Illinois and Auburn (on the highway) to get to 10 wins. It’s not a whole stretch to suppose Alabama may lose to Oklahoma or Auburn, however each appear unlikely.
Ole Miss wants solely to separate a house sport towards Florida (as 16.5-point favorites) and the Egg Bowl at 5-5 Mississippi State to succeed in 10 wins.
Georgia, 8-1, has a house sport towards 1-8 Charlotte sandwiched by robust assessments towards Texas and Georgia Tech. Much like Alabama, it’s doable Georgia loses a type of, however each can be stunning.
Texas Tech turned the clear favourite to win the Large 12 with its win towards BYU. The Pink Raiders have UCF and West Virginia remaining. These groups are a mixed 3-10 within the Large 12. Tech seems to be secure.
Oregon squeaked by Iowa and has accidents hampering its passing sport. The Geese’ remaining video games are all towards groups already bowl-eligible: Minnesota, USC and at Washington. Anticipating Minnesota to win in Eugene is a stretch, however the different two are dicier. A ten-2 Oregon staff in all probability nonetheless will get in, nevertheless it could possibly be tight.
One-loss groups wanting much less good
Georgia Tech (+220)
BYU (+350)
The Yellow Jackets bought some assist in the ACC race with fellow contenders Louisville and Virginia shedding. Georgia Tech is favored to win the ACC (+200) and has a slender path to an at-large berth that may require a win vs. Georgia and a loss within the ACC title sport as an 11-1 staff.
BYU is an fascinating case because the least-respected one-loss energy convention staff. The truth is the Cougars usually are not seen as extremely as their rating. BYU is favored by lower than a landing this week towards TCU, and subsequent week’s big sport at Cincinnati figures to be more durable. Austin Mock’s projection mannequin places the Bearcats as 5-point favorites for that sport and solely provides BYU a 13 % likelihood of ending 11-1. Would a 10-2 BYU get in? The percentages suggest some skepticism.
Two-loss staff with a very good path
The Combating Irish play at a ranked Pitt staff this week, so it’s not that tough to see Notre Dame’s possibilities getting derailed. Nonetheless, the Irish are favored by double digits and can be favored by extra towards Syracuse and Stanford to shut out the common season. There are a variety of two-loss groups that would get in with a 10-2 report. None has a neater remaining schedule than Notre Dame.
Two-loss groups with robust paths
Texas (+200)
Oklahoma (+250)
Utah (+300)
Vanderbilt (+320)
USC (+350)
Miami (+350)
Cincinnati (+600)
Michigan (+675)
Virginia (+750)
Pitt (+800)
Louisville (+1000)
The awkward half about this checklist is that the groups on the prime are those with the toughest schedules. Texas has Georgia and Texas A&M nonetheless. Oklahoma has to go to Alabama this week. If both staff wins out, they may possible be in, and Texas even has an opportunity to win the SEC. Doing so is the onerous half. It’s too early to think about the chaos state of affairs of a three-loss staff within the CFP, nevertheless it’s doable the Longhorns and Sooners may make that argument if there are sufficient losses elsewhere.
Utah can be favored in its final three video games (at Baylor, vs. Kansas State, at Kansas), however would have a tough time getting in forward of BYU, which beat the Utes.
Vanderbilt must win at Tennessee within the regular-season finale, a sport the Commodores will possible be underdogs in.
USC has a troublesome Iowa staff this week and has to play at Oregon subsequent week. If the Trojans get to 10-2, it’s a very good resume, however, like Texas and OU, getting there can be tough. Similar for Michigan, which must beat No. 1 Ohio State.
Non-power convention contenders
South Florida (+120)
James Madison (+200)
North Texas (+200)
Tulane (+600)
Memphis (+2500)
Navy (+3000)
After weeks of assuming it might be the American that will get the fifth conference-winner spot within the CFP, James Madison of the Solar Belt has surged within the odds. The American contenders hold beating one another up. The Dukes’ solely loss is to a ranked Louisville, and JMU is extra prone to win the Solar Belt (-325) than any American contender is to win that convention (USF is the favourite at even cash).
South Florida performs at Navy this week.
