I wished to proceed studying and offering knowledge on new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. At this time’s objective is to have a look at his prior tendencies and success within the run sport Atlanta, evaluating that to his time as offensive coordinator in Tennessee together with Pittsburgh’s current outcomes, and see what that might imply for the Steelers in 2024.
First, here’s a desk from my first research – linked above – of Smith’s run sorts utilized in 2019-2020 with the Titans, sorted by most makes an attempt:
This fast reminder reveals outdoors zone runs had been most utilized by far, and was extremely profitable from a yardage perspective, particularly contemplating that quantity. Being an “outdoors zone man” has been a standard speaking level about what Pittsburgh ought to count on with the addition of Smith.
The primary research additionally pointed to optimism on the addition, studying that outdoors zone was the second most utilized run kind by Pittsburgh, at a good 4.2 YPA from main RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Another attention-grabbing/shocking findings had been Harris fared finest with 4.3 outdoors zone YPA, in comparison with Warren at 3.7 YPA, with the latter holding the higher inside zone mark (4.2 YPA) on Harris (3.9 YPA).
Smith’s stellar 5.9 YPA quantity on outdoors zone as Tennessee’s OC will hopefully marry properly with Harris’ stronger quantity during the last two years, and the crew usually. Taking a look at particular person seasons, the Titans had been second and eighth in large zone yards within the span (sixth and seventeenth in makes an attempt).
Very spectacular, and hopefully carries over to Pittsburgh. Try the hyperlink on the high of the article in order for you a deeper breakdown on Smith’s time in Tennessee.
Now, let’s have a look at and examine his three seasons as head coach for the Atlanta Falcons:
What jumps out immediately is stretch runs had been the commonest run kind by Smith in Atlanta, not outdoors zone. The tallies are available in comparable, with stretch at 318 makes an attempt, and 312 outdoors zone makes an attempt. Each featured wholesome YPA, with 4.4 in stretch, and a 4.6 outdoors zone quantity.
From a YPA perspective, outdoors zone noticed way more success in Tennessee (5.9 YPA versus 4.6 with Falcons), a considerable distinction from Smith and RB Derrick Henry certainly. Regardless of the a lot larger utilization, stretch was extra profitable with the Falcons by an entire yard per carry (4.4 YPA versus 3.4) which could be very notable.
In response to Sports activities Information Resolution’s charting, Atlanta led the league in stretch makes an attempt and yards in 2022 and 2023 and was the one crew within the three-year span to eclipse 100 makes an attempt in every (144, 123). Expectedly, additionally they led the league in yards each of these seasons (673, 542), and ranked thirteenth in 2021 with 194 yards on 51 makes an attempt (tied for fifth-most).
This factors to an encouraging willingness to lean on completely different ideas in every job, which will probably be attention-grabbing to observe play out in Pittsburgh.
Listed below are Smith’s run sorts with extra YPA in Tennessee than Atlanta:
Outdoors Zone: TEN 5.9 YPA (227 makes an attempt). ATL 4.6 YPA (312 makes an attempt).
Inside Zone: TEN 4.4 YPA (149 makes an attempt). ATL 3.6 YPA (174 makes an attempt).
Lead: TEN 5.7 YPA (145 makes an attempt). ATL 3.8 YPA (163 makes an attempt).
Duo: TEN 5.2 YPA (60 makes an attempt). ATL 4.2 YPA (55 makes an attempt).
Zone-counter: TEN 5.7 YPA (14 makes an attempt). ATL 3.5 YPA (18 makes an attempt).
FB Dive: TEN 4.0 YPA (5 makes an attempt). ATL 2.8 YPA (4 makes an attempt).
Draw: TEN 2.0 YPA (two makes an attempt). ATL N/A.
Sweep: TEN 15.0 YPA (one try). ATL 0.3 YPA (three makes an attempt).
An necessary reminder that the pattern sizes are completely different when contemplating the makes an attempt (two years in Tennessee, three in Atlanta), however included them for context. Of the 16 included run sorts, precisely half of them (eight) noticed higher YPA in his time with the Titans.
After the aforementioned outdoors zone outcomes, inside zone was higher in Tennessee by practically a whole yard (4.4 YPA). Lead was used extra and was extraordinarily profitable with Tennessee, with that wonderful 5.7 YPA on substantial makes an attempt far exceeding his 3.8 quantity in Atlanta. Duo was additionally used extra in Tennessee and featured a YPA differential of plus-one.
Then we see the much less utilized schemes. Giant distinction in zone counter YPA and sweep. The latter was a 15-yard achieve on the lone try for the Titans (15.0 YPA), whereas three alternatives for the Falcons landed on the opposite excessive of the spectrum (0.3 YPA).
Draw could be very notable, with Smith avoiding it total. Solely two makes an attempt in Tennessee (2.0 YPA), and extremely none over three seasons with Atlanta, in comparison with it being Pittsburgh’s sixth commonest of the span (53 makes an attempt).
Runs with extra YPA in Atlanta than Tennessee:
Stretch: ATL 4.4 YPA (318 makes an attempt). TEN 3.4 YPA (59 makes an attempt).
Pitch: ATL 5.4 YPA (112 makes an attempt). TEN 4.5 YPA (86 makes an attempt).
Counter: ATL 5.6 YPA (25 makes an attempt). TEN 3.7 (11 makes an attempt).
Energy: ATL 4.5 YPA (14 makes an attempt). TEN 4.3 YPA (58 makes an attempt).
Entice: ATL 4.9 YPA (12 makes an attempt). TEN 2.3 YPA (4 makes an attempt).
Jet Sweep: ATL 5.3 YPA (4 makes an attempt). TEN N/A.
Wham: ATL 5.0 YPA (three makes an attempt). TEN 3.0 YPA (one try).
Backward Move: ATL 7.0 YPA (one try). TEN 5.5 YPA (two makes an attempt).
Stretch is clearly most notable, as beforehand talked about. Pitch is the opposite encouraging consequence, given the substantial alternatives and YPA of practically a whole yard.
The remainder of the ideas are 25 makes an attempt or much less, pointing to much less fascinating outcomes total in Atlanta as anticipated. A number of components akin to extra duties as a head coach and caliber of crew may level to this, with the info giving added context. Counter was profitable for Smith and the Falcons at 5.6 YPA on 25 makes an attempt, in comparison with 3.7 in Tennessee (11 makes an attempt).
The information on energy runs jumps out, solely 14 makes an attempt in his three years in Atlanta (4.5 YPA), and lots of extra makes an attempt (58) in simply two seasons with the Titans on the same 4.3 YPA. Entice labored properly for the Falcons and Smith (4.9 YPA, 12 makes an attempt), whereas Tennessee used it much less with poor outcomes (2.3 YPA).
The remainder had been 5 makes an attempt or much less. No RB jet sweeps for the Titans with Smith however did it on 4 events in Atlanta with a wholesome 5.3 YPA. Wham and backward move had been hardly ever utilized by Smith in both teaching spot as properly.
For comparability, I wished to incorporate Pittsburgh’s crew knowledge for the final three seasons. It’s necessary to notice that Warren wasn’t with the crew in 2021, however wished to get an identical pattern measurement to Smith’s time as a head coach in Atlanta for this text:
Inside zone tops the listing for Pittsburgh, with comparable makes an attempt all three seasons. This was within the high three run sorts for Smith throughout the research, so count on a excessive dosage to proceed in 2024. Outdoors zone is second for Pittsburgh, with 101 makes an attempt in 2021, rising to 132 in 2022, then a notable dip to 65 final season. Harris and Smith’s success in that scheme are very encouraging, and hopefully marry properly in 2024.
Up subsequent in quantity for the Steelers was duo (99 makes an attempt) and pitch (97). Smith ran duo 55 instances in Atlanta (sixth commonest), and encouragingly had stronger YPA than Pittsburgh in each teaching spots. Pitch was generally used throughout the board, with Smith’s items getting 4.5 YPA (TEN) and 5.4 in Atlanta, wholesome numbers.
Noticeable variations in quantity begins with energy scheme. Pittsburgh ran it 87 instances (fifth-most), in comparison with simply 14 for the Falcons the final three seasons. 58 in Smith’s time in Tennessee (two years), and had sturdy YPA with each golf equipment, so it is going to be attention-grabbing to see what this seems like with the black and gold. 53 attracts for Pittsburgh (5.1 YPA), and Smith avoiding it with simply two makes an attempt in all 5 seasons.
The largest shock was Smith’s high run kind being stretch in Atlanta (318 makes an attempt, 4.4 YPA), in comparison with simply 47 makes an attempt for the Steelers the final three years (3.4 YPA). Maybe this will probably be a package deal that leans extra to Warren, who averaged 4.3 YPA the final two years (albeit simply 15 makes an attempt), in comparison with Harris’ 3.3 YPA on 29 makes an attempt. Price monitoring, contemplating Smith ran stretch far much less in Tennessee.
Pittsburgh’s following schemes had been below 50 makes an attempt: stretch, counter, entice, zone-counter, wham, sweep, jet sweep, lead, backward move, and FB dive. Together with the stretch findings, lead is one other idea that stands out. Smith leaned on the idea in each spots closely, with 163 makes an attempt in Atlanta (3.8 YPA), and 145 in Tennessee with a significantly better 5.7 YPA. Compared, Pittsburgh has simply seven makes an attempt and a 2.7 YPA the final three years.
So, Smith certainly has tendencies which might be well-documented, however confirmed a willingness to regulate scheme at every teaching spot, encouragingly. A commonality was his high six schemes no matter teaching place/spot: stretch, outdoors zone, inside zone, lead, pitch, and duo. Outdoors zone, inside zone, pitch, and duo tendencies align equally with Pittsburgh, whereas stretch and lead was utilized rather more by Smith than the Steelers the final three seasons. Energy and attracts had been within the high six commonest run sorts for Pittsburgh the final three seasons, which may downtick given the findings on Smith the final 5 years.
Very excited to proceed studying this offseason, with success charges, EPA, and extra dives on Smith coming quickly. Hopefully his addition aids a extra constant dashing assault for Pittsburgh in 2024.
