Costa Vs. Kopylov Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Final Combating Championship (UFC) Middleweight bruisers Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov will conflict TONIGHT (Sat., July 19, 2025) at UFC 318 inside Clean King Middle in New Orleans, Louisiana.

What the hell occurred to “Borrachinha?” In 2020, he was undefeated, 28 years outdated, and coming off a win over Yoel Romero to problem for UFC gold. 5 years later, he’s received only a single battle and — worse than mere outcomes — is laid low with hesitancy. The place is the bruiser who terrorized his opponent’s livers mercilessly and shook off any return fireplace?

Hopefully, he’ll make one other look at UFC 318.

After an 0-2 begin to his UFC profession, Kopylov has actually mounted his fuel tank and turned it round. The slick Southpaw kickboxer has received six of his final seven, most not too long ago sealing an superior victory over Chris Curtis with a last-second head kick. On this match up, Kopylov has the prospect to seize essentially the most high-profile win of his profession.

Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Costa vs. Kopylov Betting Odds

Paulo Costa victory: +190
Paulo Costa through TKO/KO/DQ: +550
Paulo Costa through submission: +1600
Paulo Costa through resolution: +400
Roman Kopylov victory: -230
Roman Kopylov through TKO/KO/DQ: +300
Roman Kopylov through submission: +3000
Roman Kopylov through resolution: +100
Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook

How Costa Wins

Costa is actively preventing himself. At his greatest, he was a mauler, an elite mixture of uncooked physicality and punishing combos. Since dropping to Israel Adesanya, Costa has tried reinvention, however he’s not constructed to be a slick exterior striker. He’s promised to return to his roots, however … we’ll see.

There’s some idealized model of Paulo Costa who’s each in a position to jab like he did versus Robert Whittaker and strain his opponents relentlessly. If compelled to decide on, nevertheless, I might throw away the jab and return to strain, notably towards a nasty Southpaw distance kicker in Kopylov. Plain and easy, Costa pays dearly if he doesn’t rediscover his aggression and confidence. He doesn’t need to spend quarter-hour getting kicked within the liver.

The brilliant facet is Costa has proven the abilities to win. He fights Southpaws properly together with his personal kicking sport, and he is aware of methods to punch the physique well. Kopylov’s footwork has failed him earlier than in avoiding the fence. If Costa is just prepared to comply with the apparent sport plan and press Kopylov, the percentages of his victory skyrocket.

How Kopylov Wins

Kopylov is a variety of enjoyable to observe. The Southpaw fires combos and kicks in fast bursts, and he makes use of basic Southpaw techniques just like the left hand/left kick double menace properly. Higher but, there are fascinating wrinkles to his boxing, like his behavior of countering with physique punches.

All instructed, he’s stopped 12 foes through knockout.

Your complete Costa part was about breaking out of his shell, so it stands to motive that Kopylov’s objective is to persuade Costa that opening up is a foul thought. Proper off the bat, he ought to blast a couple of left kicks even when they land on the guard. Let Costa get a style of his energy, give him a motive to be nervous. Planting his toes early and sitting down on a counter mixture might equally shake Costa’s confidence.

If Costa does come ahead closely, Kopylov has to counter with linear assaults and physique works. A couple of well-timed snap kicks into the stomach might actually steal some wind from Costa’s sails, shopping for Kopylov extra time to go to work together with his distance weapons at a extra snug tempo.

Costa vs. Kopylov Prediction

Firstly, a confession and a advice: I’ve a tough time choosing towards fighters who’ve an apparent path to victory, even when they’re untrustworthy. I’ve been burned by Costa predictions greater than as soon as. I don’t advocate tailing this decide.

Nonetheless, Costa has such an apparent technique. If he simply pressures Kopylov relentlessly — which, once more, was the foundational pillar of his complete sport and success — he’ll break the Russian down. Kopylov nonetheless fatigues and doesn’t react properly when bullied. Costa is (was?) an all-time nice bully.

I view this bout as definitive proof of whether or not or not Costa is completely hopeless. If he can’t return to his earlier type and elegance right here, stick a fork in him. For one final time, I’ll intention some optimism within the “Borrachina” path. There isn’t a motive a 34 yr outdated with simply 18 skilled bouts and a single knockout loss must be completely shot.

Prediction: Costa through resolution