Cowboys analytics roundup: Welcome back to last place, defense

Can inconsistency be constant? The Cowboys are definitely looking for that out. They nonetheless have but to win (or lose) consecutive video games this season after getting blown out by the Broncos in Denver. The loss appeared to obliterate any and all optimism that was rising, as has been the case each different week this season.

As all the time, we glance to the impassive knowledge to assist supply steerage on this complicated, confounding, and contradictory Cowboys workforce. Let’s dive into some analytics.

The Cowboys dropped all the best way from ninth in whole workforce effectivity to twentieth. That’s the most important motion of the week, by far. Loads of that needed to do with the protection, which had been on the upswing, getting ripped aside by a Broncos offense that was gravitating in the direction of the decrease half of the league in effectivity coming into the sport.

One thing that additionally bears mentioning: particular groups is a matter. Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin cowl up quite a bit, however Nick Sorensen’s unit is wildly undisciplined. Dallas is only one flag away from being essentially the most penalized particular groups group within the league, and so they’re lifeless final in hidden factors, a measurement that estimates factors of subject place gained by the opponent. This unit is a ticking time bomb proper now.

In a simply world, the Cowboys would see their brand clumped proper in there with the Chiefs, Payments, Packers, and Colts. Their offense is definitely ok to be there, and their protection has usually been ok in years previous. I ponder if Inexperienced Bay appears like there’s something or anybody who’s helped their protection get into that higher echelon?

All snide remarks apart, this chart actually lays the Cowboys’ issues naked. The protection is what’s protecting them from being top-of-the-line groups within the league, nevertheless it’s not simply dangerous, it’s like an anchor tied round Dak Prescott’s neck. Even common defensive play would put them firmly within the playoff hunt, however that appears like a extra unreasonable ask with every passing week.

The offense took a step again, and rightfully so. Their efficiency towards the Broncos was objectively dangerous, with hardly any positives to remove. Nevertheless, a cause they don’t drop extra dramatically is as a result of the Broncos have top-of-the-line defenses within the league, which is one thing that must be considered.

On the entire, this offense remains to be in superb form. They received’t face one other high 10 protection (by DVOA) till Thanksgiving, and that’s no less than in AT&T Stadium, the place they’ve crossed 40 factors each sport to this point. It’s a momentary bruise on the ego, however the offense ought to get again to its high-flying methods as quickly as Monday.

Dak Prescott had his first dangerous sport of the 12 months, and boy was it a stinker. For the primary time since Week 1 – which was impacted by the drops from CeeDee Lamb – he posted a adverse completion proportion over anticipated (CPOE). Prescott was additionally sixteenth in EPA/play, which isn’t horrible nevertheless it’s nicely under the usual he’s set this 12 months.

The excellent news? It’s just one sport, and towards an elite protection. Followers will certainly want their quarterback was capable of overcome elite defenses, however Prescott remains to be having top-of-the-line seasons of any quarterback proper now.

How good has Prescott been? Simply ask his offensive line. For the third straight week, Prescott’s stress fee has gone up whereas his adjusted sack fee has gone down. He now has the bottom adjusted sack fee within the league. Briefly, Prescott is bailing out his inconsistent move safety.

A lot of that has to do together with his tackles. Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele are each among the many high 10 tackles in pressures allowed this season; no different workforce has each tackles that prime. The one different groups to have each tackles even within the high 15 are the Jets and Saints, who’ve a mixed 2-14 file. Dallas wants higher sort out play.

This protection appears to purely feed off power proper now. That’s not one thing that the analytics observe, nevertheless it’s the perfect clarification. They had been legitimately good towards Washington, and so they began off sturdy towards Denver. Trikweze Bridges picked off a move on the opening drive, and so they compelled a three-and-out that was in the end undone by an arbitrary offsides penalty. After that penalty, although, they imploded.

That implosion brings the protection again all the way down to final place, or very near it, in each class that issues. For what it’s value, Matt Eberflus continued the schematic adjustments he’s been injecting, together with extra blitzes and man protection, however with so many accidents on Sunday it didn’t appear to make a distinction.

Let’s clear one thing up about Kaiir Elam. His season-long stats aren’t spectacular, however Elam has flashed immense potential when working in press protection. Dallas has used press protection extra every of the final 4 weeks, and Elam is giving up a 25% completion fee and a 46.7 passer score in these video games. When the Cowboys safeties get wholesome, Eberflus has loads of cause to ratchet up the press protection much more and unlock Elam’s potential.

The linebackers, nevertheless, stay a problem. Shemar James performs with grit for a fifth-round rookie, however he’s been a legal responsibility in protection. Kenneth Murray has been worse towards the run, however he’s loads dangerous in protection too. Maybe we judged you too harshly, Jack Sanborn. Both manner, DeMarvion Overshown can’t come again quickly sufficient.