With every season bringing recent faces to the ranks of baseball’s elite, we all know it gained’t simply be the same old suspects vying for MLB’s high statistical honors in 2025.
What main surprises would possibly form the season forward? To search out out, we requested 5 MLB.com writers to draft darkish horse stat leaders — one hitter and one pitcher every — throughout a spread of classes.
1. House runs: Oneil Cruz, OF, Pirates2024 house runs: 21
Cruz’s 2024 homer whole was a profession finest, however given the quantity of drive he creates along with his swing, you’ll anticipate him to flirt with 40-plus dingers yearly.
Cruz swung at 78.6 mph on common final season, second quickest within the league behind Giancarlo Stanton. And Cruz’s 75.6% fast-swing price (his share of swings with a pace of a minimum of 75 mph) put him behind solely Stanton and Kyle Schwarber and simply in entrance of Aaron Decide (75.1%).
Cruz additionally ranked within the ninety fifth percentile or higher in barrel price (15.7%), hard-hit price (54.9%) and common exit velocity (95.5 mph). Solely 5 different hitters ranked as extremely in every of these classes: Stanton, Schwarber, Decide, Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani. These 5 gamers every recorded a top-10 at-bat-per-HR price final season (minimal 400 ABs). In the event you swing exhausting and make optimum contact, you usually tend to hit a house run. Fairly easy.
However Cruz’s AB/HR price final season (25.76) ranked 78th amongst certified hitters. What was the issue? One simply identifiable situation was his 48.1% ground-ball price, nicely above the league common of 44.4%. Soto was the one different member of that group with a ground-ball price above 41%.
Cruz has excellent bodily energy, and he transfers that energy to his bat extraordinarily nicely. With some small changes, he can high a house run leaderboard. — Brian Murphy
Having signed an eight-year, $82 million extension with the Brewers earlier than ever enjoying within the Majors, Chourio made his massive league debut on Opening Day final yr amid appreciable hype — and proceeded to slash .207/.251/.323 over his first 51 video games.
Nonetheless, the extremely touted prospect quickly discovered his footing, hitting .305 with 16 homers and an .888 OPS over his ultimate 97 video games en path to a third-place end within the Nationwide League Rookie of the 12 months Award voting. There was nothing fluky about that efficiency: He made dramatic strides in quite a few key areas, swinging at fewer pitches exterior the zone, hanging out much less and producing higher contact.
With blazing pace, bettering bat-to-ball expertise and an all-fields strategy, Chourio may very well be a severe batting-title contender for years to return. His potential is off the charts as he enters his age-21 marketing campaign. — Thomas Harrigan
Even simply within the AL, the competitors for the OPS crown consists of Aaron Decide, Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Gulp. On condition that, you would possibly as nicely intention excessive — and Caminero’s potential as a hitter is gigantic. Briefly No. 1 general on MLB Pipeline’s Prime 100 checklist late final season earlier than graduating from prospect standing, Caminero conjures up awe along with his means on the plate from Rays gamers, coaches and executives. (In actual fact, he as soon as impressed a uncommon batting-practice standing ovation as a visiting participant.)
“I don’t know if I’ve seen any individual hit the ball persistently as exhausting as he does.” — hitting coach Chad Mottola
“When he connects with the baseball, it’s particular.” — president of baseball operations Erik Neander
“It’s superb how the ball jumps off his bat.” — supervisor Kevin Money
Caminero posted a .921 OPS within the Minors regardless of all the time being extraordinarily younger for his stage, and he held his personal final yr because the third-youngest hitter within the Majors. The Rays are relying on him as a lineup centerpiece in 2025, and massive issues may very well be forward. — Andrew Simon
4. WAR: Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs2024 WAR: 4.0 FanGraphs/3.4 Baseball Reference
If you consider gamers with the instruments to have the most effective all-around seasons, there’s little doubt that Carroll’s title will come up. He has elite pace, which helps him cowl a ton of floor within the outfield. That pace, mixed along with his acumen on the bases, made him probably the most priceless baserunner in MLB in each 2023 and ’24, per Statcast. His worth comes not solely from his means to steal bases, but in addition the best way he takes further bases.
Whereas his bat wasn’t as productive in 2024 as in ’23, we’ve seen what he can do in that division, and there’s no motive he can’t regain that type. Carroll was ninety fifth percentile in batting run worth in 2023.
Masking all aspects of the sport at a excessive stage is an effective way to build up a number of WAR. Carroll is a superb candidate to take action. — Sarah Langs
This man makes a reasonably robust candidate for a future stolen-base king. Mitchell will get on base and he can positively run (29.5 ft/sec avg. dash pace in 2024), so it’s not a query of functionality. The Brewers stole the second-most bases final season (217; the Nationals stole 223) and have been the most effective baserunning crew by run worth (+18 runs), so there’s no motive to anticipate a change in technique. Almost 1 / 4 of these 217 steals additionally belonged to Brice Turang (50), which looks like a sign that the teaching employees in Milwaukee is prepared to offer a younger participant the inexperienced gentle and see the way it works out.
Clearly, there’s a “however” coming. Mitchell, at 26, has by no means performed greater than 69 mixed video games in an expert season. He set that profession excessive in 2024, and in that first substantial take a look at his baserunning with the rule modifications that led to a virtually 30% improve in stolen bases from 2022-23, he had 11 steals. So on the one hand, we don’t know the place his ceiling is, however on the opposite … we don’t know the place his ceiling is. — Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru
Alcantara is again. No, actually — he’s all the best way again. After lacking all the 2024 season whereas recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure, Alcantara was again to pumping 99 mph fastballs in his first begin of Spring Coaching.
The Marlins’ Opening Day starter is about 17 months faraway from his operation. He’s absolutely wholesome and doesn’t seem to have any limitations in 2025. If that’s all true, Alcantara will make a severe run at being MLB’s chief in WAR this season. He completed fourth with 5.9 fWAR throughout his 2022 Nationwide League Cy Younger Award season, and his 13.2 WAR from 2021-23 tied for sixth within the Majors.
FanGraphs Depth Charts initiatives that Alcantara will accumulate 3.5 WAR this season. If we’re actually about to see pre-surgery Sandy once more — the workhorse who averaged greater than 200 innings per season from 2021-23 whereas registering a 3.14 ERA — that projection will show to be too conservative. — Brian Murphy
After posting an ERA north of 5.00 as a rookie in 2023, Brown seemed to be on his approach towards an identical end result when he recorded a 7.71 ERA over his first 9 begins final season. Nonetheless, every thing fell into place after the right-hander tweaked his repertoire in Could, including a sinker to his fastball combine alongside his four-seamer and cutter.
Over his ultimate 22 begins, Brown pitched to a 2.31 ERA with 138 strikeouts and 39 walks (3.54 Ok/BB ratio) in 132 2/3 innings. He led MLB in fastball run worth (+24) throughout that stretch, a stark distinction to his first 9 begins (-11).
On the yr, Brown tied for the MLB lead (minimal 300 batted balls) with a 30.3% hard-hit price allowed, down from 44.4% (thirteenth percentile) in 2023. His sinker was an enormous motive why — solely 11 of the 109 batted balls (11.9%) he allowed on the pitch have been categorized as hard-hit (95+ mph exit velocity). If he carries that success into 2025, he may very well be a severe contender for MLB’s ERA crown. — Thomas Harrigan
In 2023, a younger Braves right-hander constructed on a powerful rookie season to guide the Majors in strikeouts (in addition to wins and FIP). That, after all, was Spencer Strider. Now, setting apart crew, handedness, age and expertise, let’s be clear that Schwellenbach is just not Strider. They’re very totally different pitchers, and Schwellenbach doesn’t have fairly that stage of explosiveness. However is there a path to Schwellenbach making a run towards the highest of the strikeout leaderboard in 2025? Maybe.
You’ll be able to’t pile up Ok’s with out innings, and when you mix Schwellenbach’s work within the Minors and Majors, he threw 168 2/3 in his age-24 season. With a stable grip on a Braves rotation spot, that units him up nicely for 2025. And whereas Schwellenbach doesn’t have Strider’s wipeout fastball-slider combo, he brings a various, six-pitch arsenal (four-seamer, slider, cutter, curve, splitter, sinker). 5 of these choices boasted a optimistic run worth final yr, giving Schwellenbach myriad methods to assault hitters on any given day. He will get hitters to chase (96th percentile in 2024) and will construct on his Seventieth-percentile Ok-rate shifting ahead. — Andrew Simon
Profitable video games is about pitching nicely, after all. However it’s additionally useful to be on a great crew. With the Purple Sox anticipated to be higher throughout this yr, any good starter figures to be ready to rack up loads of wins. Houck went a minimum of 5 innings in 27 of his 30 begins final season — the minimal to qualify for a win as a starter.
Houck had 87 strikeouts on his sweeper, second most of any pitcher on sweepers final yr behind solely Sonny Grey (112). Behind that major pitch, his sinker was his second-most ceaselessly used. Inducing floor balls ought to serve him nicely this yr, with a defender like Alex Bregman behind him. — Sarah Langs
Saves are a “proper place, proper time” stat, so to guide the league in saves not simply by advantage of being wholesome and on a crew that gained a number of video games, you must be borderline unhittable — suppose Ryan Helsley’s MLB-best 49 saves for the 83-win Cardinals in 2024. Martinez, now 23, is getting into his second full massive league season. Right here’s how his rookie yr regarded:
So not solely is there one thing distinctly Helsley-esque about Martinez, he additionally pitches for the Diamondbacks, who’ve been closing by committee since 2019. He’s projected to avoid wasting 17 video games in 2025; so is A.J. Puk. Whether or not the D-backs are severe about their spring nearer tryouts stays to be seen, however it is a wager on Martinez taking one other step ahead in 2025 and proving that he’s undeniably the person for the job in Arizona. — Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru
