Spring Coaching is in full swing as we gear up for the 2024 common season. Which means it is a good time to have a look at projections for the way issues would possibly prove this 12 months, and as common, house runs are on the forefront of that dialogue.
Courtesy of FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, now we have a breakdown of every membership’s projected house run chief for the 2024 season, together with a man you need to keep watch over as a possible energy supply because the season progresses.
As a normal reminder, projections are conservative by nature and are not designed to foretell large seasons.
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (36)2023 chief: Guerrero (26)
Guerrero led the Blue Jays in house runs for 3 straight seasons and is projected to take action once more. Vlad Jr. hasn’t climbed again to his lofty heights of 2021 (48 house runs, 167 OPS+) however he is getting into his age-25 season and his batted-ball high quality suggests he is in line for a giant 2024.
Keep watch over … Daulton Varsho (24): He mixed for 47 house runs within the final two seasons and will sneakily lead the Blue Jays in homers if Vlad Jr. performs equally.
Orioles: Anthony Santander (29)2023 chief: Santander/Gunnar Henderson (28)
Santander leads Orioles hitters with a mixed 79 house runs since 2021 and has hit at the least 28 in every of the final two seasons. The switch-hitter does not affect baseballs like the sport’s premier sluggers, however he excels at pulling fly balls — the optimum batted-ball consequence for producing energy.
Keep watch over … Jordan Westburg (11). The younger infielder slugged .404 in his first stint within the Majors and hit 45 homers within the Minors from 2022-23.
Rays: Isaac Paredes (26)2023 chief: Paredes (31)
Paredes used plus contact expertise and an excessive pull energy strategy in a breakout 2023 season. He grew to become the fourth participant within the pitch-tracking period (since 2008) to drag all of his house runs in a 30-plus house run season. The contact high quality is not spectacular, however it does not have to be once you pull fly balls this a lot.
Keep watch over … Junior Caminero (10): MLB Pipeline’s No. 4 general prospect, Caminero has elite energy and would possibly hit 30-plus homers as a rookie if he is up for greater than 100 video games.
Pink Sox: Rafael Devers (36)2023 chief: Devers (33)
Since turning into a full-time common in 2018, Devers has crushed 162 house runs — a quantity bested solely by 14 hitters. Devers has three 30-plus-home run seasons below his belt and constantly ranks close to the highest of the league in barrels, hard-hit fee and common exit velocity.
Keep watch over … Tyler O’Neill (22): O’Neill is not far faraway from a 34-home run season in 2021 and will obtain on a regular basis at-bats in Boston.
Yankees: Aaron Decide (46)2023 chief: Decide (37)
Decide is the simple house run king proper now. He adopted up his record-breaking 62 house runs in 2022 with 37 house runs in simply 106 video games in ’23. Assuming Decide is wholesome for a full season, there is not any cause to imagine that he will not threaten for the third 50-home run season of his profession.
Keep watch over … Anthony Volpe (20): Thirty house runs is just not out of the query for the proficient Yankees shortstop in his second season.
Guardians: José Ramírez (28)2023 chief: Ramírez (24)
Ramírez is as dependable as ever and continues to provide robust general numbers. From an influence perspective, he is hit at the least 23 house runs in each full season — excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season — since 2017. Ramírez has led Cleveland in house runs in every season since 2020.
Keep watch over … Bo Naylor (14): After hitting 11 house runs in a 67-game debut in ’23, the youthful Naylor might compete together with his older brother Josh because the Guardians’ house run chief.
Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. (31)2023 chief: Witt (30)
Witt broke out in 2023 when he grew to become the primary Royals participant with a 30-30 season. The younger star in the reduction of on his strikeouts final season, permitting Witt to faucet into his huge uncooked energy extra steadily. Based mostly on his trajectory and expertise, he might threaten for 40 house runs.
Keep watch over … Nelson Velázquez (19): Acquired on the 2023 Commerce Deadline, Velázquez crushed 14 house runs in simply 40 video games.
Tigers: Spencer Torkelson (30)2023 chief: Torkelson (31)
After hitting simply 12 house runs within the first half final season, Torkelson had an influence surge with 19 house runs within the latter half. The No. 1 decide from the 2020 Draft has at all times had the potential for 30-home run seasons and this would possibly turn out to be a daily prevalence for the 24-year-old.
Keep watch over … Colt Keith (14): Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 22 general prospect, Keith has plus hit and energy instruments to challenge for 20-plus homers on an annual foundation.
Twins: Byron Buxton (29)2023 chief: Max Kepler (24)
Accidents have steadily been part of the image for Buxton, who’s an electrical baseball participant when he is on the sphere, particularly on the plate. Even when Buxton performs in 100 video games, he is wager for 25 house runs — probably extra if he stays wholesome.
Keep watch over … Matt Wallner (16): Wallner hit 14 house runs and slugged .507 in 76 video games as a rookie whereas posting an elite 18.8 p.c barrel fee.
White Sox: Luis Robert Jr. (33)2023 chief: Robert (38)
Robert was a vivid spot in a down 2023 season for the White Sox, clubbing 38 homers whereas ending twelfth in AL MVP voting. After coping with accidents from 2021-22, the White Sox middle fielder stayed wholesome for 145 video games and will surpass 30 homers once more if he stays wholesome.
Keep watch over … Eloy Jiménez (29): Simply 27 years previous, Jiménez has flashed 30-home run potential like he did in his rookie season in 2019 (31 homers).
Angels: Mike Trout (36)2023 chief: Shohei Ohtani (44)
With Ohtani leaving for the Dodgers, Trout is well the highest energy menace on the Angels. Accidents have sadly turn out to be extra frequent for the Angels famous person, however when he is stayed comparatively wholesome, he is produced loads of energy — like when he hit 40 homers in 119 video games in 2022.
Keep watch over … Logan O’Hoppe (22): If Trout is hampered by accidents once more, O’Hoppe — who hit 14 homers in 51 video games as a rookie final season — could lead on the Angels in house runs as an on a regular basis catcher.
Astros: Yordan Alvarez (39)2023 chief: Alvarez (31)
Alvarez has blossomed into one in all baseball’s finest hitters since debuting in 2019, rating third with a 165 OPS+ (min. 1,000 plate appearances) in that span. His prodigious energy has produced at the least 31 homers in every of his final three seasons and his first 40-home run season is inside attain.
Keep watch over … Yainer Diaz (21): Diaz hit 23 house runs as a rookie final season and can now step in because the Astros’ on a regular basis catcher.
Athletics: Brent Rooker (26)2023 chief: Rooker (30)
Acquired off waivers earlier than the ’23 season, Rooker rewarded the A’s with a 30-home run season and an All-Star look. The 29-year-old seems to be poised to strategy 30 homers but once more with on a regular basis at-bats in the midst of the A’s lineup.
Keep watch over … Zack Gelof (21): Gelof had a formidable rookie displaying in ’23, hitting 14 homers with a 137 OPS+ in 69 video games.
Mariners: Julio Rodríguez (33)2023 chief: Rodríguez (32)
J-Rod is likely one of the true superstars in baseball and a real affect participant in all aspects of the sport, particularly from an influence perspective. Rodríguez mixed for 60 house runs in his first two seasons and will strategy or exceed 30 house runs but once more in ’24.
Keep watch over … Mitch Haniger (20): Again in Seattle after a 12 months with the Giants, Haniger crushed 39 homers in his final wholesome season with the Mariners in 2021.
Rangers: Adolis García (32)2023 chief: García (39)
García stole the present within the 2023 postseason, successful ALCS MVP and serving to the Rangers to their first World Sequence title. “El Bombi” mixed to hit 47 house runs in 163 video games between the common season and the postseason. García hit 97 house runs from 2021-23 and is an effective wager to steer the Rangers in homers once more.
Keep watch over … Wyatt Langford (17): One in every of baseball’s prime prospects, Langford’s meteoric rise has him on the cusp of an MLB debut and spot in the midst of the Rangers lineup.
Braves: Matt Olson (41)2023 chief: Olson (54)
Olson broke the Braves’ single-season report together with his 54 house runs in what was an all-time efficiency from Atlanta’s offense. Since 2021, Olson’s 127 house runs path solely Decide’s 138 homers and the lefty slugger ought to strategy 40 but once more in ’24.
Keep watch over … Jarred Kelenic (17): A former prime prospect, Kelenic is simply 24 years previous and would possibly profit from a change of surroundings to one in all baseball’s prime lineups.
Marlins: Jake Burger (27)2023 chief: Soler (36)
Burger — a 2017 first-round decide — broke out final season with 34 house runs for the White Sox and Marlins. The righty slugger ranked within the 89th percentile or higher in barrel fee, hard-hit fee, common exit velocity and anticipated slugging share.
Keep watch over … Bryan De La Cruz (18): Getting into his age-27 season, De La Cruz has the offensive profile to probably hit 25-30 homers in a season.
Mets: Pete Alonso (41)2023 chief: Alonso (46)
No person has hit extra house runs (192) than Alonso since he debuted in 2019. The 2-time Residence Run Derby champion has cleared 40 homers in consecutive seasons and has by no means completed with fewer than 37 house runs outdoors of the shortened ’20 season.
Keep watch over … Francisco Alvarez (25): The younger catcher clubbed 25 house runs in his rookie season and will take a step ahead in his age-22 season.
Nationals: Lane Thomas (24)2023 chief: Thomas (28)
It was a breakout season for Thomas, who posted a 20-20 season because the Nats’ prime offensive performer. Given on a regular basis at-bats for the primary time in 2022, Thomas has hit a mixed 45 house runs in that timeframe and appears like wager to clear 20 homers once more.
Keep watch over … James Wooden (2): One of many Nats’ prime prospects, Wooden has made noise with a powerful Spring Coaching and if he is promoted rapidly, he might hit double-digit homers within the Majors.
Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (42)2023 chief: Schwarber (47)
Solely Decide is projected to hit extra homers than Schwarber and for good cause. Philadelphia’s slugging leadoff hitter has crushed 93 house runs in two seasons with the Phillies. Schwarber’s eager eye and elite energy make him one of many sport’s most feared energy threats.
Keep watch over … Alec Bohm (18): Bohm has made large strides as a hitter and hit 20 homers for the primary time in ’23.
Brewers: Rhys Hoskins (31)2023 chief: Willy Adames (24)
After lacking all the 2023 season on account of an ACL tear, Hoskins brings his 30-plus-homer pop to the Brewers following a six-year stint with the Phillies. Hoskins is the proprietor of 148 profession house runs and has 4 seasons through which he is hit at the least 27 homers.
Keep watch over … Jackson Chourio (16): One in every of baseball’s prime prospects, Chourio might be an on the spot 20-20 menace within the Majors.
Cardinals: Nolan Arenado / Paul Goldschmidt (28)2023 chief: Nolan Gorman (27)
A 12 months after Goldschmidt received the NL MVP and Arenado completed third in voting, the 2 Cardinals hitters took a step again in 2023. If the Cardinals need to proper the ship after an uncharacteristic last-place, 71-win season, they will want their two sluggers to carry out nearer to their profession norms.
Keep watch over … Jordan Walker (18): Getting into his age-22 season, Walker might take a giant step ahead in his second 12 months and hit 20-plus homers.
Cubs: Cody Bellinger / Christopher Morel (24)2023 chief: Bellinger / Morel (26)
Bellinger and Morel tied for the staff lead in house runs in 2023 they usually’re projected to take action once more in ’24. The just lately re-signed Bellinger made wholesale modifications in ’23 to make extra constant contact, whereas Morel has huge uncooked energy and will clear 30 homers.
Keep watch over … Michael Busch (12): The previous Dodgers prime prospect hit 20 homers in every of the final two seasons at Triple-A and has that potential within the Majors.
Pirates: Bryan Reynolds / Oneil Cruz (25)2023 chief: Jack Suwinski (26)
Reynolds has been a constant on a regular basis performer in Pittsburgh since debuting in 2019 and has strung collectively three straight 20-home run seasons. Cruz missed a lot of the 2023 season after fracturing his fibula however is absolutely wholesome once more and has the uncooked energy to hit 30-40 homers.
Keep watch over … Henry Davis (15): The previous No. 1 general decide is making noise this spring with loud contact and robust manufacturing that might carry over right into a breakout season.
Reds: Matt McLain / Christian Encarnacion-Strand (24)2023 chief: Spencer Steer (23)
The Reds have a plethora of younger hitters who’ve the abilities to steer the membership in homers this season. McLain was very good as a rookie in ’23, ending fifth in NL Rookie of the 12 months voting due to a 129 OPS+ and 16 homers. Encarnacion-Strand, in the meantime, slugged 13 house runs in 63 video games.
Keep watch over … Noelvi Marte (14): Marte impressed in his first stint within the Majors in ’23 and has a well-rounded skillset to probably lead the staff in homers.
D-backs: Christian Walker (29)2023 chief: Walker (33)
Walker has blossomed into one in all baseball’s prime first basemen, hitting a mixed 69 house runs since 2022 whereas taking part in premium protection. Getting into his age-33 season, there is not any cause why Walker should not strategy 30 homers once more and play his position as a dependable middle-of-the-order bat in Arizona.
Keep watch over … Joc Pederson (20): Getting into his first season with the D-backs, Pederson has 5 20-homer seasons in his profession and will add a sixth one in ’24.
Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (40)2023 chief: Mookie Betts (39)
Ohtani will strictly hit in his first season with the Dodgers, which might open the potential for a fair larger offensive season. The famous person has blossomed into one in all baseball’s premier hitters and crushed 44 homers in 2023 earlier than his season was reduce brief after 135 video games.
Keep watch over … Will Smith (22): Smith is one in all baseball’s prime catchers and has averaged 23 house runs a season since 2021.
Giants: Jorge Soler (32)2023 chief: Wilmer Flores (23)
Keep watch over … Marco Luciano (13): Penciled in because the Giants’ on a regular basis shortstop, the 22-year-old Luciano has the uncooked energy to probably strategy 20 homers.
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (37)2023 chief: Juan Soto (35)
Getting into his age-25 season, Tatis is trying to return to his 2019-21 kind. After lacking all the 2022 season, Tatis carried out fairly effectively final season (113 OPS+) however was not fairly at his profession norms (143 OPS+). He seems to be poised to have a giant 12 months in a Juan Soto-less Padres lineup.
Keep watch over … Luis Campusano (17): Campusano is the clear-cut on a regular basis catcher for the Padres and will hit 20 homers in his age-25 season.
Rockies: Nolan Jones (23)2023 chief: Ryan McMahon (23)
Jones was a breakout star for the Rockies in ’23, posting a 138 OPS+ and a 20-20 season whereas taking part in high quality protection. Jones has legit pop, rating within the 94th percentile in barrel fee in ’23, which bodes effectively for a hitter who performs half of his video games within the pleasant confines of Coors Subject.
Keep watch over … Kris Bryant (21): It has been a tricky begin to Bryant’s Rockies tenure, however he is not far faraway from a 25-home run season in ’21.
