The divisional spherical of the playoffs for the 2025 NFL season has two extra nice video games, and we’ve got you coated with what you want to know.
On Sunday, the Texans hope to win the franchise’s first divisional spherical sport once they play the Patriots. Then quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams go to quarterback Caleb Williams and the Bears in Chicago.
Our NFL Nation reporters take you contained in the locker room with the perfect factor they heard this week, and analytics author Seth Walder offers a key stat to know for every matchup. NFL analyst Ben Solak additionally provides us daring predictions, whereas NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies one matchup X issue to look at. Betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks an intriguing wager for every sport, and employees author Kevin Seifert tells us what to know in regards to the officiating crews. Plus, our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection, and 4 analysts — Eric Moody, Maldonado, Solak and Walder — give us ultimate rating picks for each sport.
Every part you wish to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff soccer. Let’s get into the total divisional slate.
Soar to a matchup:BUF-DEN | SF-SEAHOU-NE | LAR-CHI
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | ESPN | NE -3 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Texans: Houston is within the divisional spherical for the third straight season, however the franchise is 0-6 all time in these matchups. QB C.J. Stroud views this divisional sport as an thrilling likelihood to show one thing. “I believe it is an amazing alternative for us to go on the market in our subsequent sport and put our greatest foot forward of us and attempt to get a ‘W’ in a harsh atmosphere in opposition to a very good soccer workforce,” Stroud mentioned. “So, it is simply one thing on our thoughts that we have to get finished. That is all our focus is true now.” — DJ Bien-Aime
What we’re listening to on the Patriots: Coach Mike Vrabel referred to as the Texans the perfect protection his workforce has confronted to this point. Among the many key areas for New England is the left facet of the offensive line with rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Campbell (LSU) recalled going through DE Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama) as a freshman in faculty, and now they meet once more in a pivotal matchup. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Patriots common 8.6 air yards per try, the third-highest mark within the NFL. However the Texans’ protection permits solely 4.8 air yards per try, the league’s lowest. Will QB Drake Maye have sufficient time — and can his receivers get open sufficient — for him to throw downfield? — Walder
Editor’s Picks
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Daring prediction: Search for rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to attain on large performs in opposition to man protection downfield as Houston’s offense continues to thrive with a menu of run, run, run, run, shot play. The Texans will probably be with out WR Nico Collins (concussion) for this sport, however their receiver corps is deeper and extra numerous than folks notice. — Solak
Matchup X issue: Texans S Calen Bullock. He can restrict the Patriots’ vertical passing sport, utilizing his vary to trace the ball from the put up or the deep half. And Bullock brings a playmaking component to the sector, with 4 interceptions this season, plus a pick-six off Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers of their wild-card win. — Bowen
One intriguing wager: Patriots -3. That is a quantity constructed for New England to win ugly at dwelling. Houston’s protection travels, however the offense typically does not — particularly banged up and on the street. New England can take in sacks, management area place and hit simply sufficient explosive performs to drag away late. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Texans have been damage extra by particular groups penalties than all however two groups, primarily based on EPA. They’re tied for the Tenth-fewest complete penalties on particular groups (18), however there have been a number of high-leverage infractions this season. — Seifert
Accidents: Texans | Patriots
Maldonado’s decide: Patriots 24, Texans 17Moody’s decide: Patriots 20, Texans 13Solak’s decide: Texans 24, Patriots 17Walder’s decide: Patriots 27, Texans 20FPI prediction: NE, 51.7% (by a mean of 0.6 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Texans’ Collins dominated out vs. Patriots with concussion … Can Texans WR Kirk replicate wild-card outburst? … Moments from previous and current with Patriots’ coach Vrabel
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | LAR -3.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Rams: The temperature in Chicago is forecast to be within the single digits at kickoff, with a wind chill beneath zero. It was within the 80s in Los Angeles this week because the Rams had been making ready for the sport. In accordance with ESPN Analysis, quarterback Matthew Stafford has by no means performed in a sport the place the temperature was beneath 20 levels at kickoff. However Stafford mentioned the chilly climate will probably be a difficulty for each groups and “you simply go on the market and execute the perfect you possibly can.” — Sarah Barshop
What we’re listening to on the Bears: “It feels prefer it’s dipped slightly bit,” coach Ben Johnson mentioned in regards to the Bears’ operating sport. “Not one thing that we definitely need. Definitely late within the season, we wished that to choose up. Playoffs, climate video games like this, you definitely need to have the ability to lean in your run sport.” Chicago ran for a season-low 65 yards in Week 18 and 93 (fourth lowest) within the wild-card spherical. Igniting the run sport may spark a sooner begin on offense. “It is each environment friendly runs to remain on observe and forward of the chains, and in addition explosive runs as nicely,” Johnson mentioned. “The place can we discover just a few of these … we’ll need to be on our ‘A’ sport to have the ability to run it on this crew.” — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Rams rank Tenth in EPA allowed per dropback, however they drop to twenty ninth (!) in that very same metric when going through play-action. And it isn’t only a large play or two, as success fee tells the same story. That is an issue in opposition to the Bears: Chicago runs play-action on 31% of its dropbacks, the third-highest fee. — Walder
Daring prediction: Bears QB Caleb Williams will finish the day with 60-plus dashing yards and a dashing landing. The Rams have a devastating cross rush, however Williams is the perfect escape artist they’ve confronted all season — and Bryce Younger confirmed how profitable QBs may be on the transfer in opposition to the Rams. — Solak
Matchup X issue: Rams edge rusher Jared Verse. L.A. should maintain Williams within the pocket and restrict his capacity to create outdoors of construction. Verse, who had 7.5 sacks and 49 pressures this season, will probably be tasked with containing the second-year QB, and he will get a optimistic matchup reverse Bears LT Theo Benedet. — Bowen
One intriguing wager: Rams -4. Chicago can rally late, however weak stress and leaky protection will let Stafford dictate early and end drives. Purple zone effectivity tilts outcomes constantly within the playoffs. The Rams’ protection has the third-best fee within the league (46.2%). — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Hochuli’s regular-season crew tied for the second-most flags thrown per sport (17.9). The Rams had been the least-penalized workforce (93 complete) however drew the fifth most (121) from opponents. The Bears tied for the eight-most dedicated penalties (139) and drew the sixth fewest (95) from opponents. — Seifert
Accidents: Rams | Bears
Maldonado’s decide: Rams 38, Bears 30Moody’s decide: Rams 30, Bears 24Solak’s decide: Bears 33, Rams 31Walder’s decide: Rams 33, Bears 28FPI prediction: LAR, 61.8% (by a mean of 4.5 factors)
Matchup must-reads: WR Adams: There is no place like … the L.A. Rams … Why Bears QB Williams choked up whereas saluting coach Johnson
Earlier video games
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | DEN -1.5 (45.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Payments: Buffalo is attempting to make it to a second straight AFC Championship Sport and the third of QB Josh Allen’s profession. However that will probably be a tricky process for a Payments offense coping with a plethora of large receiver accidents (Tyrell Shavers, Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer). Allen can be banged up (proper foot, left knee and proper finger accidents) however was a full participant in Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices. Defending Allen will probably be a high precedence, particularly in opposition to a Broncos protection that had 68 sacks within the common season (tied for fifth most since 1963, when sacks had been first tracked). — Alaina Getzenberg
What we’re listening to on the Broncos: There is a double dip of postseason drama for Denver. For some followers, Allen will all the time be the one which acquired away as a result of the Broncos and then-GM John Elway did not draft him in 2018. Add that to the Payments shoving the Broncos out of the playoffs a 12 months in the past in a 31-7 wild-card win. The Payments convey the league’s No. 1 dashing assault (159.6 yards per sport) and the NFL’s main rusher in James Cook dinner III (1,621 yards) this time round. Two of the three groups that beat the Broncos this season (the Colts and Chargers) rushed for greater than 100 yards. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: It is no secret that run protection is the Payments’ weak spot. They rank thirty first in EPA allowed per designed run. Can the Broncos capitalize? Denver is recording simply minus-0.04 EPA per designed run, which is nicely beneath its 0.12 EPA per dropback. And the Broncos lean cross heavy. Denver has the fifth-highest cross fee over anticipated, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder
What to know for the NFL playoffs
• Previewing the divisional spherical• Massive questions, judging overreactions• Sport plans for divisional spherical upsets• Bracket and schedule | Extra content material
Daring prediction: Broncos RB RJ Harvey may have his first 100-yard sport because the workforce prioritizes bleeding the clock and successful area place in opposition to the explosive Payments offense. Harvey’s profession excessive is 75 yards, however with J.Okay. Dobbins (foot) absent, it is time for the rookie to energy the offense. — Solak
Matchup X issue: Payments WR Brandin Cooks. He has seven receptions for 159 yards in his previous two video games. Cooks is a vertical stretch goal for Allen and may have alternatives to win downfield versus the Broncos’ man-heavy protection. The Payments might want to create explosive performs to drag off the upset. — Bowen
One intriguing wager: Below 46.5. Buffalo can transfer the ball, however it’ll face a Denver protection with the perfect pink zone effectivity fee within the league (42.6%). The Broncos wrestle to complete drives on offense, which implies fewer touchdowns from each side and longer possessions. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Broncos had been flagged for an NFL-high 20 defensive cross interference penalties this season, together with eight by CB Riley Moss. Their aggressive nature helps in lots of situations, nevertheless it price them 350 yards within the common season. — Seifert
Accidents: Payments | Broncos
Maldonado’s decide: Broncos 20, Payments 17Moody’s decide: Broncos 27, Payments 24Solak’s decide: Broncos 19, Payments 13Walder’s decide: Broncos 27, Payments 21FPI prediction: DEN, 50.7% (by a mean of 0.4 factors)
Matchup must-reads: How NFL gamers put together for the coldest video games of the 12 months … How DC Joseph has resurrected profession, Broncos’ protection … Payments’ WR Shavers performed with torn ACL in 2nd half vs. Jaguars … Broncos wish to create extra turnovers within the NFL playoffs
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox | SEA -7 (45.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the 49ers: There was a 17-week hole between their first two matchups, however there’s little to no buffer this time round. The Niners performed one sport since they final noticed the Seahawks, and Seattle is enjoying consecutive video games in opposition to San Francisco. Coach Kyle Shanahan cautioned this week in opposition to paralysis by evaluation, wanting to make sure his workforce does not overthink what went incorrect in that Week 18 loss. WR Kendrick Bourne sees the brief turnaround as a bonus: “It is nearly higher to play a workforce nearer to one another since you’re extra acquainted, extra conscious of what they will do.” — Nick Wagoner
What we’re listening to on the Seahawks: Seattle delivered a defensive masterpiece in Week 18, holding San Francisco to 173 complete yards and a area purpose. If the Seahawks wish to come anyplace near replicating that, they’re going to need to deal with like they did two weeks in the past. Coach Mike Macdonald considers San Francisco to be the NFL’s greatest offense with regards to yards after the catch, however his protection held the 49ers to 2.7 YAC of their final assembly. “There’s some performs the place guys had been in robust spots, however guys had been enjoying with nice effort, and whenever you try this, you possibly can take a few of these extra aggressive angles to get rid of a few of that area,” Macdonald mentioned. “And the blokes did an amazing job of that.” — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey has recorded an NFL-worst minus-180 rush yards over anticipated this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And the Seahawks are the perfect run protection within the league by EPA per play and opponent success fee. So, the bottom sport does not appear like a viable possibility for the 49ers. They’re going to have higher luck getting the ball to McCaffrey by way of the air. — Walder
Daring prediction: With Seahawks QB Sam Darnold coping with an indirect damage, we are going to get a goal-line snap from rookie QB Jalen Milroe. On third-and-goal from the 2-yard line, he hits a designed QB run for a walk-in landing. The group goes wild. — Solak
Matchup X issue: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III. In Week 18, he had 4 carries of 10 or extra yards, ending with 97 dashing yards. In Klint Kubiak’s zone run scheme, Walker can get to the perimeters or press the ball by way of creases of daylight, which creates offensive tempo for Seattle. — Bowen
One intriguing wager: Seahawks -7. Seattle dictates tempo, wins early downs and drains the clock. The San Francisco offense collapses when compelled beneath, and now the 49ers haven’t got TE George Kittle (torn Achilles). Seattle already proved this script works in Week 18. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: This sport will characteristic two of the NFL’s least-penalized groups. The 49ers completed the season with the second-lowest complete (102), whereas the Seahawks (117) ranked eighth. Referee John Hussey’s regular-season crew threw the fifth-fewest flags per sport (13.7). — Seifert
Accidents: 49ers | Seahawks
Maldonado’s decide: Seahawks 21, 49ers 10Moody’s decide: Seahawks 30, 49ers 17Solak’s decide: Seahawks 20, 49ers 13Walder’s decide: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20FPI prediction: SEA, 59.2% (by a mean of three.6 factors)
Matchup must-reads: 49ers’ Warner will not return vs. Seahawks … How Seahawks began over at QB with Darnold
