Fernando Mendoza narrowly beats Diego Pavia in our Heisman poll: How close will final vote be?

All that’s left to do is depend the votes.

The 2025 Heisman Trophy race didn’t finish with the marquee victory by Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza on Saturday in opposition to Ohio State. In The Athletic’s remaining straw ballot of writers and editors, Mendoza edged Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia by three factors. Only one voter may have flipped the outcome.

The precise trophy can be awarded Saturday in New York. Mendoza, Pavia, Notre Dame operating again Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin had been named finalists Monday.

Pavia gained floor on Mendoza from per week in the past, choosing up a slight majority of the assist that Sayin relinquished after the Buckeyes had been held scoreless within the second half in opposition to the Hoosiers within the Huge Ten championship.

Mendoza threw for 222 yards on 15-of-23 passing within the 13-10 win with one landing and one interception. He led an 88-yard drive within the third quarter to place Indiana on prime for good. And Mendoza helped IU maintain a pair of drives within the fourth quarter that chewed greater than eight minutes of clock.

Mendoza punctuated his remaining assertion in memorable vogue. His 33-yard strike to Charlie Becker on third-and-6 from the Indiana 24 with 2:26 remaining successfully secured victory within the No. 1-vs.-No. 2 matchup. With the win, Indiana moved to 13-0 and earned the highest seed within the Faculty Soccer Playoff.

A junior who spent three years at Cal and entered school as a three-star prospect out of Miami, Mendoza loved a Heisman second final month when he led the Hoosiers on an 80-yard drive within the remaining two minutes to win at Penn State. Mendoza beat Oregon and Iowa on the highway.

Was it sufficient?

Pavia capped his Heisman marketing campaign on Nov. 29 by throwing for 268 yards and dashing for 165 in Vanderbilt’s 45-24 win at Tennessee. He directed the Commodores to their first 10-win season and a spot within the Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl in opposition to Iowa.

The Heisman won’t watch for postseason outcomes. Voting opened Saturday and closed Monday.

If the 930 voters see the race because it performed out in our straw ballot, the margin can be slim. The Athletic follows Heisman voting protocol, assigning three factors to a first-place vote, two for second place and one for third.

In a single fewer sport, Pavia threw for extra yards than Mendoza (3,192 to 2,980). Mendoza owns the sting in yards per try (9.43 to 9.39), touchdown-to-interception ratio (33-6 to 27-8) and completion share (71.5 to 71.2).

Pavia’s dashing edge is critical — 826 yards and 9 touchdowns on the bottom to Mendoza’s 240 yards and 6 touchdowns. However Mendoza additionally has an edge in crew success.

This remaining straw ballot featured the narrowest hole of the season between first and second place. And it mirrored the clearest separation between the highest three contenders and the remainder of the sphere.

In 11 weeks, 32 gamers obtained a first-, second, or third-place vote. A season-low seven had been named on this ballot. Love positioned a robust third. He obtained point out on 21 of 26 ballots and picked up the lone first-place vote not awarded to Mendoza or Pavia.