On January 27, 2023, myself (Yanyan Li), Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Robert Gibbs, Nicole Miller, Anya Pelshaw, and James Sutherland put collectively SwimSwam’s way-too-early 2024 U.S. Olympic trials predictions, round a 12 months and a half earlier than the competitors started. Now that the meet has concluded, let’s have a look again at our predictions to see how correct we had been.
To take a look at the unique prediction article, click on right here.
Closing Outcomes
Earlier than calculating the ultimate rating, I put collectively a scoring system to find out who most precisely picked out the 2024 U.S. Olympic staff. For one occasion, writers who acquired the precise placement of a swimmer right earned three factors, writers who appropriately positioned a swimmer within the prime three (or between fourth to sixth place for the 100 and 200 free races) earned one level, and writers who appropriately positioned a swimmer within the prime six however not the highest three/backside three for 100 and 200 free races earned half some extent. Primarily based on this scoring system, Nicole had essentially the most correct predictions with 116.5 earned factors, whereas Braden had the least correct ones with 95.5 earned factors. The utmost quantity of factors you possibly can earn by this method was 288 factors.
I perceive that this scoring system isn’t good, however I felt that it was the system that accounted for accuracy in essentially the most goal method.
Scoring System:
Appropriate placement: 3 factors
Accurately positioned in prime 3 (or in prime 4-6 for the 100/200 free): 1 level
Accurately positioned in prime 6 for 100/200 free (however not prime 3 or prime 4-6): 0.5 level
Rankings:
Nicole — 116.5 factors
Yanyan — 111.5 factors
Sophie — 107 factors
Robert — 106.5 factors
James — 104.5 factors
Anya — 101 factors
Braden — 95.5 factors
Regan Smith (and Ryan Murphy)…?
Essentially the most controversial pattern in our predictions was the insecurity in Regan Smith. Each Anya and I picked her to overlook the Olympic staff in its entirety, three writers had her lacking the staff in each backstroke occasions, and 4 writers had her lacking the 200 again — an occasion the place she was then the world report holder in. Within the 200 again, James was the one author who precisely predicted her successful the occasion.
We acquired quite a lot of flack for being this skeptical over Smith, and rightfully so. At trials, she was arguably the top-performing feminine swimmer, successful the 100 again, 200 again, and 200 fly. As well as, she additionally broke the world report within the 100 again closing. So clearly, she made us eat our phrases.
I can’t communicate for everybody, however a attainable motive for the wariness round Smith’s profession then was her sudden transfer to go away Stanford and collegiate swimming to coach with Bob Bowman at Arizona State as a professional. She was simply six months faraway from making that call, and there was nonetheless some uncertainty round whether or not she’d nonetheless succeed after making such a giant life change (that being mentioned, on the time she was additionally coming off a meet the place she broke 2:05 within the 200 again for the primary time since 2019). As well as, at that time, she had simply missed two consecutive worldwide groups within the 200 again. Clearly, these issues about Smith didn’t pan out over the following 12 months in a half.
One other miss within the backstroke division got here inside the males’s 100 again. Solely Robert and James had Ryan Murphy successful the occasion, and solely three writers had him making the staff. In the meantime, 5 of seven writers had Hunter Armstrong successful the occasion, whereas those that didn’t decide Murphy to make the staff picked both Daniel Diehl or Shaine Casas to take action. Murphy proved his naysayers incorrect, occurring to win the 100 again at trials by a snug margin.
Notably, these predictions had been made when Armstrong had quite a lot of momentum — he beat Murphy within the 100 again closing on the 2022 World Championships, and was additionally the world report holder within the 50 again at that time. Diehl was additionally simply over a month faraway from almost breaking the 53-second barrier within the 100 again as a 17-year-old, whereas Casas put up Worlds medal-worthy performances in a number of occasions at U.S. Nationals in August 2022.
So go forward, be at liberty to roast us, we admit that we actually missed the mark with these picks.
Gretchen Walsh Expectations
A 12 months and a half upfront, most SwimSwam writers anticipated Gretchen Walsh to be America’s prime feminine sprinter previous to Paris. 4 out of seven writers had her successful each the 50 and 100 free, and each author in addition to Robert picked her to assert a person spot in both occasion.
On the finish of 2022, Walsh was the fifth-ranked 100 freestyler and third-ranked 50 freestyler in America, and was coming off a U.S. Nationals meet the place she broke 54 seconds within the 100 free for the primary time 2019. She additionally garnered huge momentum because of the ongoing 2022-23 NCAA season, the place she was then undefeated in particular person occasions inside collegiate competitors. Nonetheless, she had by no means certified for a senior worldwide meet at that time.
Walsh nonetheless ended up being a profitable dash freestyler, taking second within the 50 free and third within the 100 free at Olympic trials. Nonetheless, what SwimSwam didn’t envision was that her Virginia coaching companion Kate Douglass would find yourself changing into America’s prime sprinter. Douglass, who received the 100 free and have become the American report holder within the 50 free, was not put within the prime three for the 50 free by any author and solely Braden had her getting a person spot within the 100 free (ending second).
In the meantime, writers didn’t foresee that Walsh would attain the highest of American dash butterfly. Solely Yanyan and Nicole picked her to make the staff within the 100 fly (ending second), and she or he later went on to not solely win the race at trials, however break the world report for the occasion in semi-finals.
Close to/Whole Misses
There have been notably 9 Paris Olympians — Emma Weber, Chris Guiliano, Anna Peplowski, Keaton Jones, Blake Pieroni (who introduced his preliminary retirement in August 2022), Charlie Swanson, Luke Whitlock, Aaron Shackell, and Charlie Swanson — that weren’t picked by a single author to qualify for the meet. Notably, this got here even after Swanson made the 2022 U.S. World Championships staff.
There have been additionally 4 Olympians that had been solely picked by a single author to make Paris, with these swimmers being Jack Alexy (Robert, fifth within the 100 free), Alex Shackell (Nicole, second within the 200 fly), Erika Connolly (Robert, sixth within the 100 free), and Emma Weyant (Anya, second within the 400 IM). Weyant and Connolly had been each on the 2022 U.S. World Championships, and Weyant was the reigning worlds bronze medalist within the 400 IM on the time.
In the meantime, Jake Magahey, Claire Curzan, and Bella Sims had been picked by each author to qualify for Paris, however none of them did. Curzan and Sims had been each 2021 Tokyo Olympians and members of the 2022 Worlds staff, whereas Magahey nonetheless has but to qualify for a protracted course Worlds or Olympic video games.
Appropriate Sweeps
13 placements had been appropriately predicted by all seven writers: Caeleb Dressel successful the 50 free/100 fly, Bobby Finke successful the 800/1500 free, Nic Fink successful the 100 breast, Carson Foster successful the 400 IM, Katie Ledecky successful the 200/400/800/1500 free, Douglass successful the 200 breast, Katie Grimes successful the 400 IM, and Grimes getting second within the 1500 free.
Most of these picks appeared like just about a given even a 12 months and a half upfront. Nonetheless, there have been some query marks surrounding Dressel and Douglass’ sweeps. At that time, Dressel was on a aggressive swimming hiatus, which began in June 2022 when he abruptly left in the course of the 2022 World Championships and didn’t finish till Could 2023. There have been many questions surrounding whether or not he’d ever return to type then — which he did, nevertheless it solely occurred this 12 months (he missed the 2023 World Championships staff).
In the meantime, Douglass didn’t actually acquire a dominant benefit on Lilly King till she broke the American Report within the 200 breast this January. She beat King for the primary time at a global qualification meet this 12 months, however completed second to her at each the 2022 and 2023 World Championship qualification meets.
Shoutout to Robert, who was the one author that appropriately predicted a whole prime three in an occasion (the lads’s 400 IM).
