This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat e-newsletter. To learn the total e-newsletter, click on right here. And subscribe to get it repeatedly in your inbox.
Requested lately about the opportunity of Max Fried re-signing with the Braves, I gave this social media response:
“I used to be satisfied Freddie [Freeman] would return. I assumed [Dansby] Swanson would return earlier than it turned apparent he wouldn’t a few week into final yr’s offseason. My assumption is that this will likely be Max’s final season [with the Braves]. So, he’ll most likely signal a 20-year deal subsequent week.”
I used to be joking. There’s no means Fried will get a 20-year deal. However I used to be critical about my assumption this upcoming season would be the final he spends with the Braves.
Was it good to see the Braves averted arbitration with Fried for a 3rd straight yr by giving him a one-year, $15 million deal on Friday? Positive. However that’s not going to affect the doubtless huge payday the left-hander might get as soon as he hits free company on the finish of this yr.
Might the Braves forestall Fried from reaching free company by giving him an extension? Positive. However it’s a must to weigh the motivation from each side.
As you may keep in mind, inside a latest e-newsletter, I predicted Fried will win the Nationwide League Cy Younger Award this yr. If wholesome, the lefty definitely has the potential of turning into the primary Braves pitcher since Tom Glavine in 1998 to seize this honor. He has completed within the high 5 of balloting in two of the previous 4 seasons.
Projected well being was at all times going to be a problem for Fried, who turns 30 on Thursday. This turned a much bigger subject this previous yr, when left forearm irritation restricted the Braves veteran to simply 14 begins. He remained wholesome over the season’s ultimate two months. However on this period of extremely profitable long-term offers, it’s price questioning how excessive and the way lengthy a staff ought to go together with a veteran pitcher.
Aaron Nola acquired a seven-year, $172 million take care of the Phillies in November. Nola has posted a 4.09 ERA over 96 begins because the begin of 2021. The three.31 FIP he has constructed inside this span signifies he’d have fared higher with stronger protection.
Fried has posted a 2.71 ERA and a 3.02 FIP over 72 begins inside this identical three-season span. Nola’s sturdiness definitely carries some worth, however Fried has been the extra productive pitcher throughout this span.
So if he does keep wholesome this upcoming season, there’s a great probability he’ll be getting a deal that mirrors or exceeds the one given to Nola, who turned 30 in June.
Nola’s contract has a mean annual worth of $24.6 million. Round this time final offseason, baseball evaluators have been projecting Fried may get one thing much like the six-year, $162 million ($27M AAV) Carlos Rodón received from the Yankees.
Rodón posted a 6.85 ERA over 14 begins for New York final season. Yankees followers can delight within the truth there are solely 5 years and $135 million left on the 31-year-old hurler’s deal.
One thing might at all times transpire with Fried over the course of this yr, but it surely simply doesn’t really feel just like the time is correct for he or the Braves to debate an extension.
Coming off an injury-plagued season, Fried has the chance to re-strengthen his worth and presumably earn $30 million a yr together with his subsequent contract. No one is denying his functionality of getting an enormous payday if he enters the free-agent market with Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler and presumably Gerrit Cole subsequent offseason. If you happen to forgot how competitors can financially assist free brokers, keep in mind what Swanson gained throughout the “yr of the free-agent shortstops.”
As soon as groups are assured Fried’s forearm subject received’t create a lingering concern, it is going to be fascinating to see the contract projections.
Sitting right here in January, it is unnecessary for the Braves to make a suggestion and even much less sense for Fried to simply accept one thing earlier than getting an opportunity to show he’s wholesome. Possibly the time will likely be proper in August or September.
However for now, there doesn’t appear to be a cause to anticipate a Fried extension.
