However making a home-field benefit within the fashionable NFL isn’t straightforward. For years, an enormous array of things — together with sports activities science and the web secondary ticket market — has diminished the vaunted fringe of taking part in at dwelling in entrance of rabid followers. So although dwelling groups have gained extra because the pandemic dip — they’re 144-112 (.563) this season, by Week 17 — it’s not essentially as a result of they’ve had a home-field benefit, in keeping with three oddsmakers for main U.S. sportsbooks.
“The variety of groups within the NFL proper now which have an actual home-field benefit could be very small,” John Murray, the chief director of race and sports activities at Westgate Las Vegas, mentioned.
Total, it’s apparent one of the best ways to create a home-field benefit is to draw proficient personnel, construct a superb group and win video games. And in an period of unprecedented NFL parity, dwelling edges are small however vital. Simply take a look at how they’ve helped groups just like the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Payments, Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns this season.
For Washington, the top of this disastrous season has highlighted the sturdy headwinds it faces to enhance at dwelling. The Commanders haven’t completed .500 or higher at FedEx Discipline since 2017, and their dwelling level differential (minus-116) is on monitor to be the worst of any group since Jacksonville in 2013 (minus-127). Final week, San Francisco 49ers followers have been the most recent to flood FedEx, boo the house group and pressure the offense into silent depend with chants of “DE-FENSE!” Count on extra of the identical Sunday within the season finale in opposition to the rival Cowboys, who’re taking part in for the NFC East crown.
Traditionally, oddsmakers thought taking part in at dwelling was price three factors. Even into the late 2000s, Washington’s sturdy dwelling crowd was “undoubtedly” price three or extra, in keeping with Jason McCormick, vp of race and sports activities for Station Casinos. However it’s diminished vastly in recent times.
“Their home-field benefit has turn into negligible,” McCormick mentioned.
“There’s nonetheless some home-field benefit there,” Johnny Avello, director of race and sports activities operations for DraftKings, mentioned. “Possibly a degree, probably a degree and a half relying on who they’re taking part in.”
Critically for Harris, it appears troublesome to fabricate an edge. Oddsmakers mentioned the league’s two latest stadiums, in Las Vegas and Los Angeles, don’t give their groups a significant enhance. In December, the Commanders confronted the Los Angeles Rams at lovely, sterile SoFi Stadium, and afterward, a number of gamers mentioned they didn’t really feel like the gang had given the Rams a home-field benefit.
“At occasions, we have been capable of go on common cadence,” tight finish Logan Thomas mentioned. He added: “I believe a brand new stadium clearly would assist [us], particularly if it is an space the place the vast majority of the followers are. However I believe profitable cures all.”
“If we win, followers present up, [we] acquired home-field benefit,” cornerback Kendall Fuller mentioned.
McCormick argued the Commanders shouldn’t be in comparison with Las Vegas or Los Angeles as a result of the Raiders, Rams and Chargers have been relocated from different areas.
“You continue to have a regional bias within the D.C. space [toward the Commanders],” he mentioned. “If the stadium is constructed and so they can discover a technique to put a profitable product on the sector, we all know that these individuals need to be Commander followers.”
Murray echoed that sentiment — as a result of he’s a kind of individuals. He grew up in McLean, Va., as an enormous fan of the group. His household had season tickets and named their canine after linebacker LaVar Arrington. However on journeys dwelling over the previous decade, Murray has hated the lengthy drive to FedEx Discipline and the relative lack of life round it. In distinction, he loves the straightforward metro to Nationals Park and operating into previous associates at close by bars earlier than and after ballgames.
If Harris actually desires to provide his group a home-field benefit, Murray mentioned it issues whether or not he places the brand new stadium in D.C., Maryland or Virginia.
“They’ve to return to having a stadium in D.C.,” Murray mentioned, including, “If we may return to the previous RFK days with the gang rocking and the bleachers shaking? I imply … that’s price a few factors.”
Earlier this season, the DMV flashed a few of its previous ardour for the group. Followers packed coaching camp, as many as 10,000 some days. In early September, restricted accomplice Mitchell Rales mentioned at an financial discussion board that the Commanders have been anticipating a sellout dwelling opener — with few followers from the visiting Arizona Cardinals.
“There’s going to be near 60,000 followers which might be rooting for one group,” he mentioned. “These gamers have by no means seen that. That may very well be price a victory or two to us at dwelling this yr, the place our dwelling file in years previous is mostly worse … than it was on the street. We’d like all people to step up and assist, and our dedication in return is to proceed to reinvest within the franchise.”
However after beating Arizona, Washington misplaced its subsequent six dwelling video games. A group spokesperson mentioned each sport has offered out, and the Dallas sport is “trending towards” a sellout as effectively. However after the Chicago Bears thrashed the Commanders in Week 5, the crowds haven’t been as sturdy for the house group.
In November, Harris went to Seattle for the Commanders’ loss to the Seahawks. He noticed how the famously loud dwelling crowd hollered when Commanders quarterback Sam Howell tried to name performs and hushed up when it was Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith.
“It was an edge, proper?” he mentioned not lengthy after at a sports activities enterprise convention.
For now, Harris’s desires of re-creating RFK’s legendary home-field benefit are on maintain. However the truth that it stays a risk — even an out of doors risk — is a part of why he’s right here within the first place.
“I perceive this [fan base] is a sleeping large,” he informed The Washington Submit in July. “That inherent data is how I may very well be on this scenario now. As a result of let’s face it, we paid the biggest value ever for U.S. sports activities group. That’s simply the truth of it. And we did that as a result of we … consider if we do our jobs, and it’s on us, town will come again, and the group will come again.”
Nicki Jhabvala contributed to this report.
