Key thoughts and analysis as Champions League knockouts begin

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The Champions League knockout stage kicked off this week, with half of the remaining contributors in motion. Under, we dissect the largest speaking factors from the primary batch of last-16 matches.

Is anybody fearful of Bayern?

Bayern Munich was juggernauts of each competitors they entered. They bullied their rivals into promoting them their greatest gamers, attracted a number of the greatest coaches, and once they stumbled, they’d shortly rediscover their stability.

Not so this season. Each defeat – and there have been six of them up to now – has eaten away at Bayern’s confidence. A complete blackout in opposition to third-tier opposition within the German Cup set off an existential disaster that threatens to go away them trophyless for the primary time in 11 seasons. Tuesday’s ineffectual 1-0 capitulation to Lazio within the first leg of their last-16 Champions League matchup – during which they didn’t register a single shot on track – adopted a listless 3-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen that prolonged the hole on the high to 5 factors. Who is aware of how a lot farther Bayern will drop?

It is unimaginable how shortly a traditionally well-drilled membership can lose its method. Bayern used to personify German footballing excellence. However within the years since Karl-Heinz Rummenigge stepped down as CEO, there have been many messy boardroom-level breakups and public disagreements. Supervisor Thomas Tuchel additionally has a status for quarreling with higher administration over transfers or the shortage thereof. It would not really feel just like the Bayern of previous.

Whereas Tuchel has reliable excuses at his disposal – Bouna Sarr, Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry, Konrad Laimer, and Alphonso Davies are all out injured – which supervisor hasn’t needed to take care of a thinning squad this season? Each group preventing for trophies has misplaced a big variety of man video games because of the more and more grueling schedule. It isn’t a difficulty that completely impacts Bayern (extra on that later).

No surprise opponents really feel emboldened to assault and harry Bayern. Lazio overran their German counterparts in midfield on Wednesday, urgent them into uncommon errors, together with the foolish problem that resulted in a purple card for defender Dayot Upamecano and the profitable penalty for Lazio. Bayern hadn’t misplaced a first-leg last-16 fixture in 12 years, and no group on report has ever fired 17 photographs or extra with out hitting the goal in a Champions League match. These are damning statistics. They might solely be an indication of issues to come back.

KDB’s return emphasizes Foden’s development

The issues that Kevin De Bruyne’s return to health would dilute Phil Foden’s effectiveness and even cut back his sport time at Manchester Metropolis quickly evaporated.

Since De Bruyne’s comeback after 5 months of overcoming a hamstring damage, Foden has been current for 96% of the Belgian’s 366 minutes on the pitch. Throughout that point enjoying collectively, Foden has scored 5 targets and assisted twice – the equal of a objective contribution each 50 minutes. The 23-year-old’s report throughout all competitions earlier than De Bruyne’s return was a objective contribution each 134 minutes.

De Bruyne has additionally strutted again into gear following his spell on the sidelines, registering two targets and 6 assists over three begins and 4 substitute appearances.

The best way the pair is combining for Pep Guardiola’s aspect is ominous for the remainder of Europe and was highlighted by the one-two that led to Foden’s late objective in Tuesday’s 3-1 victory at FC Copenhagen. Foden knew precisely the place to go when he slipped a ball towards the byline for De Bruyne and was there to faucet it residence when the next move rolled to the sting of the six-yard field.

Foden is underlining his development on this Metropolis aspect. His excellent run of type began months earlier than De Bruyne was again in competition as he demonstrated his elevated maturity and composure and improved decision-making. He alleviates stress by wriggling freed from opponents earlier than passing to a person in house. He doggedly wins again possession in advantageous positions. He is working tougher for his teammates whereas nonetheless in some way bringing his creativity and ending to a different degree.

Foden appears to have heeded Guardiola’s warning from final October.

“I feel Phil has a free intuition as a footballer,” Guardiola mentioned on the time. “He is not a participant who thinks a lot when he performs; he is a hen – fly wherever you need. However there’s a step he has to achieve and a few duties he should do for the group.”

Foden has shortly developed into a frontrunner able to carrying the group on his again. He needs the accountability. And with De Bruyne again within the group, Foden needs to make sure his affect is undiminished whereas proving he is the celebrated playmaker’s equal.

When will Madrid hit breaking level?

No one goes to have a lot sympathy for Actual Madrid – we’re not precisely coping with plucky underdogs right here, in any case – however the fixed barrage of accidents Carlo Ancelotti’s group has been pressured to resist this season is, fairly frankly, preposterous. And it exhibits no indicators of ending.

With Jude Bellingham nursing a sprained ankle, Ancelotti turned to artful operator Brahim Diaz in his stead. The little Spaniard made essentially the most of his alternative, scoring a sensational winner in Tuesday’s first-leg victory over RB Leipzig. He, too, then suffered an damage, pulling up within the closing minutes of the 1-0 triumph with a calf concern – due to course.

Madrid misplaced Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao to ACL tears earlier than the season even began. David Alaba, nearly inconceivably, sustained the identical ailment in December. Antonio Rudiger is sidelined proper now. Midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni, who’s additionally missed time this season, is enjoying in central protection – and doing a really admirable job.

Membership captain Nacho, left-back Ferland Mendy, midfielders Eduardo Camavinga and Arda Guler, and celebrity ahead Vinicius Junior have all been within the remedy room for various quantities of time this season.

And none of it issues. Not but, at the least.

Actual Madrid maintain rolling alongside. They’re 5 factors clear atop La Liga – and an enormous 10 factors up on everlasting rivals Barcelona in third – and are excellent within the Champions League up to now. Their slim, if contentious, win in Leipzig was their seventh in as many matches on this season’s competitors. Solely fellow favorites Manchester Metropolis boast the same mark.

How lengthy can it final, although? Sooner or later, even for a group as loaded as Madrid, the expertise drain will probably be an excessive amount of to beat if accidents persist into the latter levels of the competitors when the opponents grow to be extra esteemed and the margin for error disappears. Even in a event they personal, the vaunted Actual Madrid mystique can solely carry them up to now. There must be a restrict. Proper?

Fast free-kicks

Lunin cashing in on uncommon alternative

When Courtois was misplaced for the season, Andriy Lunin was hardly a consideration as a short-term substitute. Actual Madrid moved shortly to signal Kepa Arrizabalaga on mortgage from Chelsea, leaving Lunin, a mere spectator to his group’s success over the previous couple of seasons, as soon as once more on the sidelines. However an damage to Kepa in November lastly supplied Lunin the possibility he lengthy deserved. He is made essentially the most of it, too, constructing on a number of star performances to cement his place within the lineup even with Kepa match and out there for choice once more. The Ukrainian shot-stopper made two glorious saves within the last 20 minutes of Madrid’s win Tuesday in Germany to maintain Leipzig’s pesky attackers at bay and tally his eighth clear sheet of the season. “It might have resulted in a draw, let’s be trustworthy,” Ancelotti mentioned, based on Get Spanish Soccer Information. “This was Lunin’s greatest sport since I met him.”

Grealish cannot catch a break

Guardiola arguably named Manchester Metropolis’s strongest lineup for the journey to Copenhagen. However above everybody else, Jack Grealish wanted to show he belonged in that XI. Guardiola mentioned final week that the Englishman’s dip in type was the only cause for him enjoying round 20 Premier League minutes and beginning only one match – an FA Cup go to from Huddersfield City – in 2024. Jeremy Doku, a direct rival for Grealish’s place, has additionally excited onlookers since arriving from Rennes final summer season. In an enormous alternative to rediscover his contact, Grealish was seeing loads of the ball throughout the early exchanges in Denmark and accomplished all 20 of his passes. It was going effectively till a muscular damage ended his match within the twenty first minute. Grealish will probably be hoping he is not condemned to a prolonged layoff and has time to make sure this season is not wasted from a purely particular person perspective.

Do not write off Actual Sociedad

Imanol Alguacil performed a harmful sport in remaining dedicated to Actual Sociedad’s aggressive press and excessive defensive position in opposition to Paris Saint-Germain and their pacey assault – but it surely was working. Earlier than the interval, PSG accomplished 65% of their passes in La Actual’s half and 83% throughout the entire pitch – the bottom halftime percentages of the Luis Enrique period – and Mikel Merino struck the crossbar within the forty fourth minute. The Basque aspect was harmful. Finally, the apparition of Hamari Traore determined the sport. Traore was off the pitch recuperating from a knock when Kylian Mbappe scored on the again submit – the world that the Malian would’ve absolutely occupied for PSG’s nook – and did his greatest hologram impression when Bradley Barcola ran by means of to attain. A equally robust begin from Actual Sociedad’s assault within the second leg, paired with uncompromising defending and buoyed by a raucous Anoeta residence crowd, might shortly get Alguacil’s aspect again on this tie. PSG do not are inclined to make their lives straightforward on this competitors.

Stakes are larger this season

With the Champions League ditching its longstanding format and turning into a 36-team competitors subsequent season, two European leagues will every be allotted an additional berth within the 2024-25 event, getting 5 locations as a substitute of the same old 4. A coefficient rating will decide which two leagues get the extra spots, making ends in the knockout levels of the Champions League, together with the Europa and Convention Leagues, extra very important than ever. If the tournaments ended as we speak, Italy’s Serie A (14.285) and England’s Premier League (13.875) can be the massive winners primarily based on the typical coefficient of their European representatives, based on a radical breakdown of the factors system from Dale Johnson of ESPN. The Bundesliga and La Liga are very a lot nonetheless within the combine, although. Allegiances will probably be examined within the coming months. Are you keen to place your tribalism apart and cheer for a hated rival if their continental success might presumably give your group a greater probability of qualifying for subsequent season’s Champions League?

Stat of the week

Good luck stopping Manchester Metropolis from retaining their title.

Tweet of the week

You’ll be able to take the gamers out of Tottenham, however you may’t take Tottenham out of the gamers, apparently.