The NBA is a zero-sum league: Each season produces precisely 1,230 regular-season wins and 1,230 regular-season losses. The one approach so as to add to your individual workforce’s win complete is by subtracting from one other’s.
Thus, within the yin and yang of preseason predictions, I can’t inform you about 5 groups that I count on to exceed their projected win complete — as I did earlier this week — with out additionally giving the names of 5 others that can fall quick.
All of the groups beneath have at the very least some cause for optimism, however I can’t mission off best-case eventualities. What’s extra possible, to me, is that every of those golf equipment lands about three to 6 wins wanting the place Vegas tasks them. Some groups will inevitably fall approach quick, however these eventualities normally outcome from harm cascades which can be unattainable to forecast in September.
Once more, I’m utilizing BetMGM’s win complete over/beneath numbers as of Sep. 19 because the baseline, however most homes are related. And earlier than we begin, let’s evaluate how I did final 12 months, after I picked the Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards and LA Clippers to fall quick. I went 3-for-5, lacking by half a win on the Grizzlies after they rudely gained a meaningless season finale in opposition to Dallas with each groups resting all their key gamers. I used to be approach off on the Clippers, although.
So, we forge forward. Listed here are the 5 groups that I feel are over-projected heading into 2025-26:
New York Knicks (53.5)
The Knicks gained 51 video games final season with a coach (Tom Thibodeau) who’s famend for his willingness to completely disregard any bigger-picture ramifications in pursuit of wins within the right here and now. And we’re saying, after changing him, that they’ll win extra regular-season video games this season? The logic doesn’t compute.
Sure, the Knicks’ high seven gamers are good and the East is weak, however New York was additionally largely wholesome final season (Mitchell Robinson being the primary exception); the 5 starters missed a complete of 40 video games.
In the meantime, any upside of this roster already appears just about locked in, proper? All the important thing gamers are both of their prime or turning the nook out of it, besides reserve guard Miles McBride. There are not any notable younger gamers ready within the wings, and New York has no property left (or house beneath the collective bargaining settlement’s second-apron payroll threshold, for that matter) to amass extra.
As a secondary consideration, the depth scenario past the highest eight gamers appears to be like considerably dire, significantly at ahead. The Knicks are compelled by their second-apron scenario to maintain solely 14 gamers and will must backstop the final two roster spots with late second-round picks who usually could be on two-way contracts. Pacôme Dadiet and Tyler Kolek don’t precisely appear primed to take the league by storm both. Ought to accidents hit, this might slide downhill quick.
Possibly I’m too pessimistic; the Knicks’ roster is powerful on the high, and the East is a smooth puddle. However return to the massive image: Transitioning from Thibodeau to Mike Brown wasn’t a transfer made for the sake of accelerating the regular-season win complete. I believe the outcomes may also replicate that.
Boston Celtics (42.5)
I assume persons are so used to the Celtics racking up regular-season wins that they didn’t get the memo: Boston’s greatest opponent this season is the luxurious tax, not the opposite groups within the East playoff chase. Sure, Boston nonetheless has some good gamers left — Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, notably — however with Jayson Tatum injured and Al Horford, Kristaps Porziņģis, Luke Kornet and Jrue Vacation gone, it is a very totally different workforce.
The opposite a part of this equation is that Boston in all probability isn’t executed. Anfernee Simons’ $27 million expiring contract appears prone to be on anyone else’s books by February, except the Celtics can discover a taker for Sam Hauser as a substitute. Shifting at the very least a type of two will get Boston all the way in which out of the CBA’s punishing repeater tax and units the Celtics as much as construct again with a recovered Tatum a 12 months from now.
One ingredient specifically that stands out is how schematically vital the bigs have been to Boston’s success, with Horford and Porziņģis capable of swap on one finish and shoot 3s on the opposite. That functionality doesn’t exist on this roster anymore. As a substitute, the Celtics are rolling with Luka Garza, Neemias Queta, Chris Boucher and Xavier Tillman. Keep in mind above after I mentioned the Pacers had the league’s second-worst heart scenario? For this reason.
Very like the Pacers, the Celtics have their very own first-round decide this season and 0 incentive to take a position something of their 2025-26 roster except it has longer-term advantages. They’ll in all probability chase the Play-In Event in the event that they’re shut, and this convention is definitely able to maintaining them within the race. However 42.5 wins? It seems like loads of issues must go proper for Boston to drag that off.
Indiana Pacers (38.5)
Indiana gained 50 video games final season and got here on like gangbusters on the finish, however the uncompensated lack of two of the three finest gamers from final 12 months’s NBA finalists possible relegates Indiana to a a lot decrease place within the standings.
As close to as I can inform, the essential case for Indiana to remain .500-ish this 12 months is a few mixture of the Pacers being comparatively deep final 12 months, religion that the workforce normally finds options to roster holes and Rick Carlisle being a warlock.
Rick Carlisle and the Pacers have to interchange Tyrese Haliburton this season. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Photos)
I don’t disagree with any of these factors. The large fly within the ointment, nonetheless, is that the Pacers don’t have a magic button that recreates Tyrese Haliburton, who tore his Achilles in Recreation 7 of the NBA Finals and can miss the season. Andrew Nembhard possible will transfer to level guard to start out video games, and T.J. McConnell will do T.J. McConnell issues off the bench, however that’s not the identical factor. Haliburton is maybe one of the best participant within the league at producing simple transition alternatives for teammates, whereas Nembhard is a savant on protection however nonetheless a little bit of a minus as an offensive participant. Indy’s finest approach to acquire again a few of what was misplaced offensively isn’t by way of Nembhard, truly, however a possible breakout from fourth-year wing Bennedict Mathurin.
The opposite piece of that is that Myles Turner was Indiana’s third-best participant final 12 months, and the Pacers have changed him with a bag of hammers. I presume Obi Toppin will end loads of video games as a small-ball heart, however with out Haliburton pushing the gasoline pedal on the tempo, one wonders if he and fellow frontcourt speedster Pascal Siakam will go thirsty. Indiana’s solely true facilities, comparable to they’re, are the rail-thin Isaiah Jackson (contemporary off a torn Achilles tendon), Greenback Retailer Turner clone Jay Huff and The Concept of James Wiseman. Restricted banger Tony Bradley can be round on a non-guaranteed contract, at the very least for now.
Speaking your self into the Pacers at this quantity requires Siakam staying at an All-Star stage, the younger guys (Mathurin, Jarace Walker, perhaps Johnny Furphy) breaking out and a legit starting-caliber answer rising from what, on paper, is the league’s second-worst heart scenario.
It’s a lot simpler to consider within the state of affairs the place the Pacers chillax by a “hole 12 months” however don’t totally tank. That entails creating the younger guys, pulling off the throttle on Siakam and McConnell, scanning the commerce marketplace for a long-term heart and including a 2026 lottery decide (fortuitously reacquired days earlier than Haliburton’s harm) earlier than Haliburton returns subsequent season.
Portland Path Blazers (34.5)
An over/beneath of 34.5 shouldn’t be too onerous to hit for a younger workforce that gained 36 video games a 12 months in the past and completed 23-18 within the second half of the season, proper?
Properly, not precisely. Two headwinds blow within the Blazers’ faces as they attempt to construct on an encouraging end to 2024-25. First, they have been lucky to win as many video games as they did with their scoring margin, ending twenty second in web score with a margin that usually produces 33 wins. Second, and maybe extra importantly, offseason modifications to the roster determine to considerably diminish an offense that was already struggling (twenty third in effectivity final season), taking some steam away from what must be a reasonably imposing protection.
The Blazers traded Anfernee Simons to Boston for Jrue Vacation and acquired out Deandre Ayton’s contract, with no offsetting additions to interchange their manufacturing. Simons had his flaws however was clearly the Blazers’ most gifted offensive participant, whereas Ayton was endlessly irritating but in addition scored at a excessive fee for a middle and shot 59.4 p.c on 2s.
Now, the place do the factors come from? Changing Simons with the 34-year-old Vacation is kind of the gamble; Vacation performed a really restricted position final season (18.1 factors per 100 possessions) and wasn’t notably environment friendly whereas doing it. With Vacation possible unable to be a full-time level guard, an enormous duty falls on the shoulders of Scoot Henderson after two pretty forgettable seasons.
Portland’s go-to man will likely be Deni Avdija, who was legit good final season and deserved extra consideration for it but in addition appears to be like to be the least gifted go-to man within the convention by a fairly sizable margin. Past that, there simply isn’t loads of offensive assist, with Shaedon Sharpe the closest factor to a plus creator and the Blazers utilizing their complete midlevel exception on the injured Damian Lillard. Portland is younger and feisty and can guard you, however on this rugged West neighborhood, the Blazers want extra.
Wizards (21.5)
This can be a low quantity, and but, it’s a quantity that I really feel the Wizards could have a really tough time exceeding, even in a dilapidated Jap Convention that can present numerous alternatives for wins.
The Wizards gained 18 video games final 12 months, and that determine nonetheless manages to flatter them. They did so with a staggeringly unhealthy minus-12.4 factors per recreation scoring margin that was the third worst in NBA historical past. By any affordable evaluation, the Wizards have been far and away the worst workforce within the NBA.
Wait, it will get worse. Statistically, Washington’s three best gamers final season have been Jonas Valančiūnas, who now performs for the Nuggets; Jordan Poole, who now performs for the Pelicans; and Malcolm Brogdon, who now performs for the Knicks.
Washington has two different good veteran gamers on the workforce, for the second, in CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, however there isn’t a cause to count on the grown-ups will likely be within the constructing for lengthy. Every has an expiring contact, every is rather more precious to a contender than they’re to the Wizards, and each possible will likely be purchased out on the commerce deadline in the event that they aren’t moved for draft capital earlier than then.
As soon as these two transfer on, the Wizards’ finest participant is … Cam Whitmore? Julian Champagnie? Washington will as soon as once more make investments heavy minutes in current lottery picks, however not one of the 4 on the roster (Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington) appear to be NBA starters but, a lot much less impactful ones.
All instructed, the Wizards appear to be a shoo-in for 60 losses whereas they bide their time for the Might draft lottery and hope they will get in on the Darryn Peterson-AJ Dybantsa-Cameron Boozer enjoyable. Within the meantime, this workforce will as soon as once more sport the league’s worst scoring margin. Even 21.5 wins appears wildly optimistic.
Signal as much as get The Bounce, the important NBA e-newsletter from Zach Harper and The Athletic workers, delivered free to your inbox.
(Picture of Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown: Brian Fluharty / Getty Photos)
