Everybody and their mom is anticipating a shootout between the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Payments on Sunday. In spite of everything, each groups characteristic offenses which are arguably and statistically the very best within the league. The Lions and Payments are coming off 34- and 42-point performances, respectively.
Why would anybody count on in a different way on Sunday? Let’s dive into it.
Daring prediction of the week: Lions and Payments have low-scoring slugfest, first to 24 takes the sport
We all know each of those groups have high-powered offenses, however what does the remainder of the matchup shake out like? Nicely, for starters, fairly good defenses. The Payments move protection and run protection rank eleventh and eighth within the league in DVOA, respectively. The Lions move and run defenses rank 1st (!) and sixth in DVOA, respectively. You’ll be able to learn extra about these matchups on this week’s On Paper.
The Lions preserve these defensive rankings regardless of a carousel of gamers on their protection. After coming into Week 14 already decimated, the Lions watched a number of extra starters head to the sideline all through their Thursday night time matchup in opposition to the Packers. With a mini-bye week since then, although, the Lions are wanting as wholesome as we might fairly count on. Alim McNeill, D.J. Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike have all been cleared from the damage report as of Friday afternoon. That’s an enormous boon to the inside of the defensive position, which will probably be tasked to close down James Cook dinner and the Payments’ dashing assault, making Buffalo one-dimensional.
The Payments protection has held their very own in opposition to some very respectable offenses, too. Within the final two months, the Payments have held the Seahawks, Chiefs, and 49ers offenses to 10, 21, and 10 factors, respectively. That’s no joke. Their protection stays actually wholesome for this level within the yr, they usually’re slated to be down only one starter in Week 15 in Rasul Douglas.
On high of the sturdy matchups, I’m betting on the Payments having a little bit of a hangover impact. After watching the Payments put up 42 factors every week in the past, it’s simple to suppose they’re going to do the identical to the Lions. However usually occasions it’s the alternative impact. The Payments left all of it on the sector in an exciting sport and got here up brief; it’s onerous to show round and replicate that effort. The Lions, however, are coming off of a detailed win with three further days of relaxation and a number of other gamers returning to full well being.
There’s a whole lot of motive to suppose I may very well be very mistaken right here. The Payments, as a staff, are very wholesome and moved two beginning receivers off the damage report on Friday. They’ve clearly proven they’ll put up factors in opposition to good defenses. Josh Allen is taking part in clear soccer, with no interceptions the final two weeks after throwing 5 within the 4 video games prior. And whereas the Lions’ protection is wholesome relative to final week, they’re nonetheless down a number of of their finest gamers. Nonetheless Buffalo is coming to city in opposition to a well-rested Lions staff taking part in at house, and Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has discovered a solution to shut down probably the most formidable of opponents this yr regardless of who’s manning his protection.
The Payments haven’t scored lower than 30 factors since early October. The Lions, simply as soon as since September. Right here’s to hoping the Lions put up much more than 24 factors. However I might see this being a low-scoring sport, at the very least by the usual of the groups concerned. Sunday, I’m taking whoever will get to 24 first.
