The Detroit Lions are following up probably the most disappointing losses in latest reminiscence with a rematch of probably the most heartbreaking playoff defeats in franchise historical past. Many followers have spent the week in a little bit of a tailspin, and whereas the rematch has misplaced some chew following the devastating harm to second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels, it nonetheless provides an opportunity for a get-right recreation.
Detroit has dropped two of its final three and appears as weak because it did late in 2023, when it misplaced to the Packers and Bears in a three-week span—practically collapsing towards the Saints in between these two losses. However after that stretch, the Lions rebounded in a giant manner, blasting the Broncos 42-17 on Saturday evening earlier than rolling by the postseason to the NFC Championship Recreation. Dan Campbell has confirmed again and again that when he says one thing is fixable, he genuinely means it.
With Marcus Mariota and a struggling Dan Quinn protection now up subsequent—plus a Commanders crew that isn’t in peak well being, this recreation presents a possibility to reestablish rhythm and remind everybody why Detroit belongs within the championship dialog.
With the Lions’ offense underneath scrutiny—and the Commanders lacking Daniels and prime receiver Terry McLaurin—this preview breaks down three key statistical matchups, specializing in Detroit’s offense versus Washington’s protection, that might decide whether or not the Lions can get again on observe and reaffirm their place among the many NFC’s contenders.
Observe: Until in any other case indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Professional, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Professional Soccer Reference and exclude rubbish time.
Second-and-long misplaced Lions
The Lions’ offense has been underneath the microscope for its latest struggles, with each possible scenario dissected. One space that’s drawn specific scrutiny: their second-and-long (second-and-7+) inefficiency.
Detroit leads the NFL in run charge on these downs (44.7%), however the issue is their lack of effectiveness on the bottom. On 42 dashing makes an attempt in these conditions, the Lions have managed only a 28.6% dashing success charge (Twenty ninth)— steep drop from 50.5% (4th) final season.
The problems prolong past the run recreation. Right here’s how the Lions rank total on second-and-long this season:
When Detroit fails on first down, drives usually unravel earlier than they begin. Sustaining possessions and producing factors turns into practically unimaginable—as evidenced in Week 9 towards Minnesota, when the Lions went three-and-out on 4 consecutive drives.
Fortuitously, their Week 10 opponent presents a possibility to get again on observe.
Dan Quinn’s Commanders protection—now lacking key contributors like Dorrance Armstrong, Deatrich Sensible Jr., former Lion Wil Harris, and most not too long ago Marshon Lattimore Jr.—has regressed from final 12 months’s middle-of-the-pack normal. Even rising gamers like Mike Sainristil have taken a step again. That’s notably evident on second-and-long.
Washington’s protection on second-and-long this season:
The Commanders can nonetheless create disruption with stress and run stuffs, however as a rule they’re weak to being pushed round and exploited.
This matchup provides Detroit’s offense an opportunity to reestablish competency in a scenario that’s quietly derailed too many drives. As John Morton continues to settle into his play-calling id and the offensive line works to strengthen communication and chemistry—particularly with a brand new left guard—second-and-long success will probably be a key measure of progress. The Commanders protection is the best place to start out discovering it.
The Lions’ opponent final week, the Vikings, sit on the prime of the meals chain with regards to bringing the blitz. Their 42.3% blitz charge leads the NFL. The Commanders aren’t fairly as aggressive, but it surely’s nonetheless a lever they haven’t any hesitation pulling. They rank eleventh in blitz charge at 28.1%, sandwiched between two latest Lions opponents—the Chiefs and Ravens—and never far behind the Buccaneers. Detroit’s offense has confronted its share of pressure-heavy groups this season and, up till final week, had dealt with them properly.
The place Washington runs into hassle, although, is once they don’t blitz.
Commanders go protection when not blitzing this season:
Regardless of nonetheless having the ability to generate stress, Washington’s protection when dashing 4 is among the many worst within the league—arguably the worst. Whereas John Morton has repeatedly emphasised working the soccer even when it isn’t working as a result of it’s a part of the crew’s id, it is a matchup that ought to lean on Jared Goff and the passing recreation. When your offense is looking for cohesion, generally the only answer is staring you within the face.
The Lions ought to particularly assault first downs, the place Washington permits a ten.4 YAC/reception (thirty second) and a 39.1% explosive go charge (thirty first) when not blitzing. This secondary isn’t constructed to carry up in protection for lengthy—and so they’re even much less able to tackling in area as soon as the ball is accomplished. Detroit ought to unleash an aerial assault early and let Goff carve up this decimated and declining go protection to set the tone and open up the run recreation later.
On the season, the Lions common a 15.0% play-action charge—center of the pack at 18th within the NFL—a notable drop from final 12 months once they led the league in each frequency (20.2%) and effectivity (60.9% passing success charge). They’re nonetheless efficient once they use it, rating tied for eighth with the Colts at 54.2% success charge, however during the last month, they’ve gotten away from what as soon as made them so tough to defend.
Since Week 6, Detroit’s 11.7% play-action charge ranks simply twenty sixth league-wide. They’re solely hurting themselves by not leaning on it extra—and this week’s matchup provides the right alternative to get again to it. Washington’s protection includes a weak again seven, together with linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu and security Quan Martin, who’ve all struggled in area notably towards play fakes.
Commanders go protection vs. play-action this season:
Whereas Washington isn’t persistently gashed on play motion from a success-rate standpoint, the harm they’ve allowed when it does hit has been devastating. The Lions have to let their playmakers get the ball in area, rack up yards after the catch, and discover rhythm by straightforward, high-leverage completions.
John Morton ought to lean on these “straightforward buttons”—early-down passing and play motion—even when it doesn’t really feel gritty. It’s about placing gamers in positions to succeed and constructing confidence from there. Be adaptable and show the naysayers improper.
With Marcus Mariota at quarterback, Detroit ought to have a transparent expertise edge over Washington’s ghost-ship fleet. That is the week to re-establish who they’re offensively, and to point out they nonetheless belong within the NFL’s elite tier earlier than subsequent week’s heavyweight matchup with Philadelphia.
