Tadej Pogačar is placing previewers out of enterprise. He’s received the final three editions of this race and his late season kind appears so good so he can trip into the historical past books this Saturday and swap comparisons with Eddy Merckx for one with Fausto Coppi who received this race 4 instances in a row (1946-1949)… but additionally took a fifth win in 1954.
It’s laborious to jot down in regards to the different contenders as a result of find out how to get forward of Pogačar? Nonetheless it could be enjoyable to see them attempt.
The RouteOf all of the 5 Monuments, Lombardia’s route modifications essentially the most. As this morning’s L’Equipe mused this comes with peril because the race searches for its cultural anchor factors. Watch the race on Saturday and it’ll seem like Lombardia and the annual Bergamo-Como parentheses certainly work higher than previous editions of years in the past the place the race completed in Milan, removed from any climbs.
This yr’s version is Bergamo-Como, west to east, 252km and properly over 4,000m of vertical acquire. The primary 4 climbs contribute lots to the day’s vertical acquire with the Selvino a staple of the race and locals alike. It makes the primary two hours or extra laborious going.
The Madonna del Ghisallo is tackled through a “new” route. Quite than the “poor man’s spaceship” ramp out of Bellagio as Gianni Brera as soon as wrote, this manner up is extra a pauper’s travelator or in additional biking phrases, a giant ring sort of climb. On the prime the race will go the chapel and biking museum within the different path earlier than descending to the lake for a breather. Solely simply because the street is slim and being in place for the Sormano climb counts for many.
Colma is an outdated phrase for a go or a peak (from the Latin culmen, as in culminate) and it is a acquainted climb but it surely’s not the Muro, the vicious facet street, however simply the primary climb up. It’s a quasi-Alpine climb, 13km at 6.4% but when we scratch the small flat space earlier than the highest most if the climb is 7% or extra.
The End: no Citiglio and the San Fermo options as soon as which makes for a much less selective end, and possibly extra motion earlier than on the Sormano. Nonetheless it’s not straightforward, a good flip at foot locations a premium on moving into first earlier than the slim street twists up by the woodland, it’s 2.7km at 7% reaching 10% earlier than the highest. Then it’s downhill and a slight modification to the end with the race not ending by the lake however extra inland due to excessive water but it surely stays flat.
The Contenders: Tadej Pogačar has received the final three editions, the course fits and he’s in kind. To paraphrase Pavel Sivakov after the Zürich Worlds, Pogačar was doing 700 watts uphill and Sivakov’s drawback was he saved doing this on the descent, then on the flat and he simply couldn’t observe the relentless tempo. This makes him the five-chainring decide however in sport they don’t equate to 100% chance.
Pogačar’s helped much more by a powerful UAE squad the place Marc Hirschi, Jan Christen, Adam Yates and Pavel Sivakov may all win but when they’re someway within the combine for the win then so will probably be others from rival groups in order a lot as UAE could need to redistribute some alternative, why danger it? For some that is boring, for others it’s the prospect to see somebody main of their discipline at their pomp, like watching Fangio, Jordan or Woods. There’s no proper and mistaken right here. Nonetheless returning to the workforce they’re sturdy however lack a tractor-like rider who can pull on the flat in addition to the climbs and rivals would possibly need to exploit this.
As ever the way in which to win is to maneuver earlier than Pogačar does however as we’ve seen currently he goes sooner than most anticipate. So it’ll be fascinating to see the morning breakaway and whether or not some huge names be a part of the same old Polti-Kometa and Bardiani invitees. In any other case good luck to anybody hoping to remain on Pogačar’s wheel on the Sormano.
That is the issue with citing all the opposite riders, somebody like Tom Pidcock (Ineos) can dash properly, handles the climbs and particularly the descents properly and is looking for a end result when others have already gone on vacation… (replace: Pidcock is a non-starter) so if anybody leaves it to the Sormano then Pogačar can take 30 seconds or extra on the climb and parlay this right into a minute going into Como.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) is the opposite star title and it’ll be fascinating to see what his plan is. He spoke of fatigue in his pre-race presser however some kind ought to nonetheless be left, it’s extra find out how to use it. Shock maybe, barging away on a flat piece of street the place relative to Pogačar he’s acquired a bonus and keep in mind UAE’s relative weak spot right here too. However pre-Sormano this suggests constructing a buffer for the climb; post-Sormano implies he’s nonetheless with the Slovenian.
Enric Mas (Movistar) has been second right here earlier than and the shape appears proper now too however he’d like a extra selective end to assist slim issues down.
Matteo Jorgenson leads a powerful Visma-LAB and for a thought experiment, think about how issues would have been for the Dutch workforce had he not signed for them? There’s a lesson for UAE and us onlookers too in terms of expectations for the next season.
One other American contender is Neilson Powless who’s simply received Gran Piemonte. That race has an ever-changing course however the current version was like a mini-Lombardia and Georg Steinhauser was wanting sturdy too so up EF Schooling-Easypost to invent one thing.
Romain Bardet (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) rides his final Lombardia and is a sentimental decide. This was one of many races that made him when, as a neo-pro in 2012, he was on the assault. Again then a younger professional energetic late right into a 250km race was signal of potential. He’s acquired a succesful workforce with Kevin Vermaerke able to ending off a strong season.
Roger Adria has proved a helpful signing for Pink Bull-Bora-hansgrohe however a Monument might be asking an excessive amount of.
Simon Yates (Jayco) can say goodbye to the workforce he’s been with for a decade and having completed fith in Emilia the shape is there for a end result.
David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) might be like Mas as a Vuelta finisher in kind however is much less reassuring and find out how to win, as if he’s alright in a dash there are sooner. Amongst them workforce mate Romain Grégoire.
Bahrain most likely need the season to rush up and finish, they’ve slipped to seventeenth within the UCI rankings for this yr. Nonetheless Pello Bilbao and Antonio Tiberi convey choices.
House hopes most likely relaxation on Giulio Ciccone who can climb with the most effective and packs a good dash, plus he was wanting aggressive in Gran Piemonte however turning this right into a result’s robust.
We may look wider, assume Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X), Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa) or Alessandro Pinarello (VF-Bardiani-CSF) however after all for these riders simply to get forward of some names above would impress, not to mention discovering away previous Pogačar and Evenepoel.
Climate: 17°C and largely cloudy. The poetic label of “the race of the falling leaves” (la classica delle foglie morte for locals) feels redundant, even weird, lately given spells of heat climate in September and October. However this yr the climate’s been very totally different since early September and so look out for the autumnal tones… and even leaves on the street.
TV: RAI for locals and VPN surfers the place it’s stay from 10.25 CEST on RAI Sport, then 2.00pm on RAI Due. See Eurosport-Discovery-Warner-HBO-whatever-it’s-called-where-you-live for the worldwide feed. KM0 is at 10.35am and the end is forecast for five.00pm Euro time.
