Everyone knows that the Mets-Dodgers Nationwide League Championship Collection goes to be portrayed as one thing of a David vs. Goliath, given the very totally different expectations of those golf equipment getting into the 2024 season. However which may not be fairly correct. For one factor, for all of the speak concerning the Dodgers spending a billion {dollars} final winter, it’s really the Mets who’re the upper payroll crew right here. For an additional, keep in mind that because the center of Might — or, you realize, 5 full months — the groups have had nearly precisely an identical profitable percentages.
And, additionally, it’s New York vs. Los Angeles. Is it even doable for there to be a “David” right here? (No, not Roberts.)
What now we have, as a substitute, is Ohtani vs. Lindor. We’ve got the battle over Mike Piazza’s legacy. We’ve got what’s a much more compelling baseball collection than you might need thought had you realized about this a couple of months in the past. Let’s go place by place to interrupt it down.
Will Smith and Francisco Alvarez each produced glorious first halves, then had actually troublesome second halves — and neither has completed a lot of something in any respect within the postseason, save for Smith’s lengthy Recreation 4 dwelling run. Smith earns a small edge right here, simply because he’s been higher over the course of the final two seasons — i.e., the size of Alvarez’s profession — but it surely’s not by a lot. Although each have been ice chilly, every have confirmed they are often a lot, a lot better than this.
Freddie Freeman is a residing Corridor of Famer, and whereas Pete Alonso is, after all, superb, he’s seemingly not fairly that. (In the event you price all of their seasons by WAR, Freeman has the highest 5 and 10 of the highest 11.) That’s clearly partially about Freeman being a star earlier than Alonso even reached the bigs. But it surely’s not nearly previous historical past; even simply in 2024, Freeman was nonetheless the higher participant. Normally, that might be sufficient for an edge right here, but this isn’t a regular state of affairs. Freeman’s badly injured ankle compelled him out of Recreation 2 early, prevented him from enjoying in Recreation 4 in any respect, and precipitated him to be lifted for protection in Recreation 5.
He’s clearly not at full energy. And whereas he’s earned quite a lot of respect for attempting to play by it, we’ll should take a completely practical and scorching Alonso over a diminished Freeman.
This may not go the way you suppose it should — as a result of whereas Jose Iglesias (137 OPS+) was certainly a lot better than Gavin Lux (101 OPS+), there have at all times been plenty of questions on how lengthy Iglesias may make that final, given A) a complete profession of not doing that, and B) his presence as what Statcast considers the second-largest overperformer in baseball. That’s already occurred, to some extent, as Iglesias is hitting merely .207/.233/.207 within the postseason. It’s gone the opposite manner for Lux, who was simply incredible within the second half (.304/.391/.508, an .899 OPS) after purposefully including some aggression to his swing, earlier than pitching in with a homer in NLDS Recreation 4.
It’s sufficient to not fear that a lot concerning the full-season stat line, and deal with who these guys are proper now. That mentioned, the Mets even have a wild card: Jeff McNeil returned from an injured wrist and might be obtainable in some capability. After his personal midseason change to be extra aggressive, McNeil slugged .533 in his final 50 video games. It’s exhausting to know, nevertheless, what he could also be prepared to supply.
It’s has-a-strong-case-to-be-MVP-and-has-had-some-legendary-moments Francisco Lindor towards … nicely, it’s exhausting to say. It’s not Mookie Betts; he’s in proper discipline. It is in all probability Tommy Edman, since Miguel Rojas is banged up and did not make the roster. Regardless, the Mets have Lindor. The Dodgers don’t.
Now, we begin actually entering into all of the shifting elements the Dodgers have, as a result of that is going to be Max Muncy — until he has to shift to first if Freeman wants reduction, wherein case it might be Chris Taylor or Enrique Hernández. Muncy and New York’s Mark Vientos hit roughly evenly throughout the common season, although after all Muncy has a for much longer observe file of doing so. However Vientos has been a lot better this postseason. And whereas that alone isn’t sufficient for an edge right here, the truth that Taylor and Hernández are every sizable steps down — and the chance that considered one of them is required right here — tilts this to the Mets.
Over the course of their respective careers, which every started in 2016, Brandon Nimmo has been a good bit extra precious than Teoscar Hernández — even when Nimmo stays a criminally underrated star. However Nimmo’s stable first half (.815 OPS) collapsed right into a summer-long battle (.595 OPS) within the second half, although he’s rebounded within the postseason. In the meantime, Hernandez had one thing like a profession 12 months, mashing 33 homers, and ended up out-slugging Nimmo by 102 factors. He’s been simply pretty much as good in October, too. This one goes to Los Angeles.
Mickey, Willie, and/or the Duke, this isn’t. Removed from the times the place heart discipline could be the house of a crew’s largest stars, this collection includes a assortment of helpful — if imperfect — position gamers, with a considerably unclear imaginative and prescient of who precisely will get probably the most enjoying time right here. The Dodgers have primarily used Edman, besides he is perhaps wanted at shortstop, or they may use Enrique Hernández, besides he is perhaps wanted at third base, they usually may simply find yourself with the talented-yet-inconsistent Andy Pages. (Neither James Outman nor Kevin Kiermaier was on the NLDS roster.)
It’s so much. The Mets counter with Harrison Bader and/or Tyrone Taylor, who haven’t hit even a little bit within the postseason. However no less than we all know that whichever one it’s, they’ll present sturdy protection. We’re contemplating bending the principles to provide both sides an obstacle, however all it takes is one nice fielding play to show the tide in a brief collection.
Do not forget that transient second originally of the Padres collection, when the one query about Betts was why his postseason struggles had lingered? A number of huge homers later, and abruptly he was among the best hitters the Dodgers had within the NLDS. He’s additionally nonetheless “actually Mookie Betts.” At 35 years previous, Starling Marte has missed quite a lot of time the final two years with accidents, and hasn’t stood out when obtainable (89 OPS+); his once-excellent protection is now a legal responsibility. That is a simple one.
The Dodgers make use of Shohei Ohtani.
No disrespect in any respect supposed to J.D. Martinez, after all, who was an All-Star for the Dodgers final season earlier than shifting on to the Mets. However he is not Ohtani. Nobody is.
We may consider these two merely on the deserves of the pitchers who’re prone to make begins, but it surely’s extra difficult than that. For the reason that Mets dispatched the Phillies in 4 video games, they’ll have had three days off to reset their rotation, permitting supervisor Carlos Mendoza to decide on between any of Kodai Senga, Luis Severino, and Sean Manaea (the Mets are going with Senga in Recreation 1, with Manaea in Recreation 2). These are the highest three, with Jose Quintana prone to begin Recreation 4, and Senga, Manaea and Severino obtainable once more to begin potential Video games 5, 6, and seven.
It’s a very good rotation, not an important one. However it’s, no less than, a rotation. It’s 4 average-to-solid starters who can deal with all seven video games, if wanted. In the meantime, the Dodgers solely had three starters to start with — and every of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler include appreciable questions — and now, with Yamamoto having been utilized in NLDS Recreation 5, he’s unavailable till no less than NLCS Recreation 3 — and extra seemingly Recreation 4 — presumably giving him only a single NLCS begin.
Which means, if the collection goes seven, they’re going to want 4 begins from Flaherty and Buehler — together with probably two bullpen video games. The Dodger bullpen is fairly good, so possibly that’s not a horrible choice. It’s not, nevertheless, a rotation.
It’s been a little bit of a whiplash-like season for the Dodger relievers — word the two.57 ERA in Might/June disintegrating right into a 5.65 mark in July — but it surely stabilized close to the tip of the season, and has been an absolute energy in October. It’s even higher than it seems to be, actually; of the six earned runs the bullpen has allowed, half got here off of low-leverage rookie Edgardo Henriquez mopping up in San Diego’s Recreation 2 blowout win. Certainly you noticed the Padres fail to attain for twenty-four consecutive innings to finish the NLDS?
Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Michael Kopech, Alex Vesia, Evan Phillips, and Daniel Hudson have every pitched a number of scoreless innings within the playoffs to this point, and that group of six had already posted 302 1/3 innings of two.53 ERA ball for Los Angeles within the common season. Vesia, nevertheless, was left off the NLCS roster with an intercostal damage. Even with out Vesia, it is a sturdy group, maybe stronger than the Dodgers have had in a while, they usually’re going to be relied upon closely within the NLCS.
It’s not that the Mets ‘pen is a weak point, after all; when Edwin Díaz is at his finest, there’s hardly anybody higher, and Tylor Megill and David Peterson have turn into precious multi-inning items. However a key subject right here is that the Mets relievers had the very best stroll price within the NL this 12 months (10.8%), they usually’ve really walked extra within the postseason (12.4%). Look no additional than the tip of the Phillies collection to see simply what sort of tightrope a postseason bullpen should stroll after they’re handing out free passes.
We’re not essentially out right here on the vibes practice, as a result of as spectacular because the OMG and Grimace runs have been, finally these are baseball groups who must win baseball video games. However the Mets haven’t been a Johnny-come-lately flash, both. As we mentioned, return all the best way to Might 15 — almost 5 months in the past — they usually received extra regular-season video games than the Dodgers. It isn’t as a lot a mismatch because the narratives are going to make it appear.
Throw of their potential to set their rotation whereas the Dodgers should scramble but once more, and put together to see an entire lot extra of a sure purple fast-food mascot.
