For a lot of the season, it’s appeared as if teaching carousel narratives have overshadowed the motion on the sphere. This week, we’re lastly getting right down to the great things with the School Soccer Playoff race.
So after all, how completely 2025 it’s that one of many coaches for one of many contenders would possibly go away for one of many colleges that already fired its coach.
I nonetheless wish to speak Playoff.
(Word: Submitted questions have been evenly edited for size and readability.)
There’s a vociferous debate about Miami and Notre Dame’s relative place within the polls, as each groups are 8-2 at this level. ND followers argue that A) the Week 1 loss to Miami within the first recreation is much less vital than current outcomes, and B) that ND’s losses to Miami and Texas A&M are higher than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. Nevertheless, ND can’t level to an announcement win on their resume like Miami has over ND. Is it honest to low cost a win/loss early within the season? All of them rely, proper? — Stephen, Marietta, Ga.
All of the video games rely, which either side are justified in saying. Miami followers are understandably screaming, “Hiya?! Did you overlook we performed one another within the first recreation?” All 12 video games ought to rely. And Notre Dame followers are saying, we agree, all 12 video games ought to rely — and that one was simply certainly one of them.
I’ve all the time felt head-to-head outcomes matter, however they arrive in all sizes and styles. Going to a different staff’s stadium and beating them carries extra weight with me than beating them at residence. Dropping on a last-second area aim is much more excusable than dropping by 21. And sure, timing issues. Frequent sense tells us a recreation performed in November is much more reflective of the groups we’ll be seeing within the Playoff than a recreation performed in August, like Notre Dame-Miami.
If the committee thinks, based mostly on 12 video games of information, that Miami is a greater staff than Notre Dame, then by all means, rank them in that order. But when every part else is telling you the Irish are the higher staff, then don’t contort the rankings simply to suit them round a recreation performed almost three months in the past, wherein the house staff received by three factors on a last-minute area aim. House-field benefit alone is value three factors.
My very own opinion, having watched each of those groups over the course of the season, is that Notre Dame has rounded right into a staff able to getting again to the nationwide championship recreation. Quarterback CJ Carr is the nation’s third-rated passer, trailing solely Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Worth type a deadly backfield tandem. And the Irish protection has gotten a lot better over the past two months.
Jekyll and Hyde Miami appears extra like a gifted however underachieving school basketball staff that squeezes its approach into the NCAA Event and loses within the first spherical. Principally as a result of I don’t belief Carson Beck to be constant and keep away from turnovers. However Miami appeared nice final week towards NC State, and I’ll revise my opinion in the event that they win these subsequent two street video games towards Virginia Tech and Pitt.
If the SEC will get six groups into the CFP, would that be the top of this model of the CFP? No matter whether or not you view it as warranted, I’ve to think about that the Massive Ten, ACC and Massive 12 would cry bloody homicide. — Christopher D.
They could, however I’m undecided that will accomplish something. That is the final 12 months of the unique 12-year CFP contract, when all conferences needed to approve any modifications. Subsequent 12 months begins the brand new deal, the place the Massive Ten and SEC have all of the authority. And proper now, they don’t agree on a lot of something. Notably Playoff codecs.
Whereas Massive Ten commissioner Tony Petitti was busy making an attempt to persuade us that followers wish to see 8-4 groups in play-in video games, Greg Sankey satisfied his colleagues to permit a change to the choice committee metrics to higher reward power of schedule — which higher rewards the SEC.
Starting in 2025, not 2026 or later.
However that’s not the principle motive six bids are on the desk this 12 months. It’s extra so what’s occurring within the different leagues. The Massive Ten is top-heavy and should find yourself with solely three reasonable candidates: Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon. The Massive 12 has no massive nonconference wins to prop up an at-large candidate moreover Texas Tech. The ACC is atrocious, so it’s arduous to argue it deserves two bids, although Miami should rise.
After which there’s Notre Dame, which is successfully the swing state of this 12 months’s area. It will likely be arduous for the committee to justify dropping the Irish out of an at-large area they’ve been a part of for the reason that first rankings, except Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or Stanford.
But when the Irish choke towards a three-win staff, then the seas would possibly half. Right here’s how:
Eight groups — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon and Oklahoma — comfortably make it with or with no convention title. The ACC champion (we’ll say Virginia) and Group of 5 champion (we’ll say North Texas) make it 10.
Alabama finishes with three, probably 4 Prime 25 wins (at Georgia, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, probably at Missouri). No different at-large candidate can contact that resume. Alabama is the eleventh staff, fifth from the SEC.
BYU loses at Cincinnati this week and Miami loses at Pittsburgh subsequent week. No at-larges for them.
Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and finishes 10-2. Utah finishes both 10-2 or, if it will get into the Massive 12 title recreation and loses, 10-3. They sq. off for the final at-large berth.
The Commodores’ finest wins could be towards Missouri and Tennessee, each 8-4 on this state of affairs. Utah’s could be towards 9-3 or 8-4 Cincinnati and Arizona State. Neither staff has a nasty loss. That’s the place Sankey’s metrics are available in. The committee doesn’t publish its strength-of-record rankings, however ESPN’s has Vanderbilt No. 11, Utah No. 18.
The Commodores seize the twelfth berth, the sixth from the SEC. Except Texas beats Texas A&M, wherein case the 9-3 Longhorns, now holding three top-15 wins — together with one head-to-head over the Commodores — take their place.
Nearly all of these outcomes can have occurred by some means by the point Notre Dame kicks off at Stanford on Nov. 29 at 10 p.m. ET. Wherein case, America, you could have a tricky determination. Do you root for the 4-7 or 3-8 Cardinal to break the Irish’s season, or do you root for Notre Dame to stave off the SEC Apocalypse?
James Franklin to Virginia Tech! Does that make them an eight- to nine-win staff in a single day in a weak ACC? And even instantaneous convention championship contenders — Jeff H.
Laborious to say with out but understanding a single member of his first roster, however I’m bullish on his possibilities, if not in Yr 1, then shortly thereafter. It’s a kind of uncommon hires that makes good sense for each events.
Virginia Tech has all the time had loads going for it within the ACC, the place Frank Beamer led the Hokies to 4 convention championships through the faculty’s first seven years within the league. It is without doubt one of the ACC’s few true “soccer colleges,” together with Clemson, Florida State and Miami, with probably the greatest residence atmospheres within the sport. It’s in a talent-rich state. And it has produced a who’s who of NFL alums. However this system wasn’t ready for all times after Beamer, and it compounded that with two underwhelming hires in Justin Fuente and Brent Pry.
Which makes this the right time to herald a high-profile coach who has received at a excessive stage. Franklin arrives simply because the college permitted a four-year, $229 million funding in athletics that ought to put it at or close to the highest of the ACC in sources. And at a time when the ACC couldn’t be extra extensive open, what with two of its marquee applications, Clemson and Florida State, knee-deep in existential crises.
In the meantime, Franklin will get a recent begin at a spot the place the expectations aren’t as suffocating as Penn State’s. I’m sufficiently old to recollect when Franklin was the “enjoyable” man at Vanderbilt, residing his finest life profitable 9 video games a 12 months. At Penn State the previous couple of seasons, he typically appeared depressing profitable 11 video games. The burden of coming shut however not fairly to the top 12 months after 12 months appeared to beat him down.
However he’s not assured success by any means. I’ve seen loads of big-name coaches whose second (or third) acts wound up a disappointment. See: Mark Richt at Miami, Chip Kelly at UCLA, Kevin Sumlin at Arizona, Gus Malzahn at UCF, and most not too long ago, Hugh Freeze at Auburn.
In case you’re Virginia Tech, you’re hoping on your personal South Carolina Steve Spurrier, Washington State Mike Leach or, presently ongoing (a minimum of for now), Ole Miss Lane Kiffin.
Fernando Mendoza had his Heisman second final week. Did Marcel Reed have his Heisman second this week? Who’re the highest 5 within the Heisman race? — Garrett R., Gainesville, Texas
All of the sensible individuals on the web suppose Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez must be a Heisman finalist. All of the individuals who don’t know ball don’t record him as a prime contender. Ought to he be a Heisman finalist. — Robert P, McKinney, Texas
As Ralph Russo requested on our Sunday episode of “The Audible,” can a man lose and win the Heisman in the identical recreation? That was Reed on Saturday. I don’t suppose he received it, however he wasn’t actually within the dialog earlier than, and he’s now.
However this could be a season the place the race will come right down to who has one of the best recreation on the final weekend of the season, and with that in thoughts, it pays to undertaking ahead and take into consideration which of the contenders will nonetheless be enjoying on Dec. 6 and/or who could be in place to make the strongest closing argument. After which rank them by chance from there:
1. Mendoza, if he beats 12-0 Ohio State within the Massive Ten title recreation.2. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, if he beats 12-0 Indiana.3. Reed, if he caps a 13-0 SEC championship season.4. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, if he goes off towards Michigan and Indiana, reminding everybody he’s nonetheless one of the best participant in school soccer.5. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, particularly if he beats 12-0 Texas A&M.
That could be your complete record at this level. Although maybe if Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia will get to 10-2 and has a monster recreation within the Commodores’ finale towards Tennessee, he may transfer forward of these gamers earlier than championship weekend.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is unbelievable, however he’s not the frontrunner, so I don’t see how he vaults over the others with Notre Dame ending towards Syracuse and Stanford.
The record of fellows who can get to New York is clearly for much longer, and Rodriguez is on it. Texas Tech is certain going to the mat for him, even lining him up within the backfield for a goal-line landing. My solely subject is that it’s not a given he’s one of the best defensive participant on his personal staff, a lot much less the nation, when David Bailey leads the nation in sacks. However I’d don’t have any downside with it.
The purpose of the CFP growth was to maintain extra groups, fan bases and areas of the nation deeper into the season. So, with that in thoughts, what number of groups are nonetheless alive for the CFP heading into Week 13? And what number of of them would already be eradicated from the four-team CFP? — Brian S., Buford, Ga.
This record is all the time going to be lengthy, however it’s insanely lengthy this 12 months as a result of wide-open Group of 5 race and the potential for wild tiebreakers within the ACC and Massive 12, the place it’s going to get falling-down drunk if Cincinnati beats BYU this week.
Let’s break it down by convention. (Word: I didn’t embrace groups which are mathematically alive however would require an unrealistic miracle.)
ACC (6): Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, Pitt, SMU, Duke
Massive 12 (6): Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston
Massive Ten (5): Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, USC, Michigan
SEC (7): Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas
Unbiased (1): Notre Dame
G5 (7): Navy, Tulane, North Texas, East Carolina, USF, San Diego State, James Madison
In whole, 32 stay alive for 12 spots, even with most groups right down to their final one or two video games.
Had been we nonetheless at 4 groups, with no automated berths, your complete record could be:
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Texas Tech
7. Oregon
8. Alabama (as a result of it could actually nonetheless realistically win the SEC at 11-2, and would maintain head-to-head tiebreakers over Georgia and Texas A&M, if that’s who the Tide beat in Atlanta.)
So in tripling the scale of the sphere, they’ve in actual fact quadrupled the variety of remaining contenders this late into the season. Another person might want to do the mathematics for once they inevitably go to 24.
Do you keep in mind when LSU talked themselves into the BCS Championship with an argument of “we’re undefeated in regulation?” — John L., Storrs, Connecticut
I like the place your head is at. UConn at 8-3 can also be presently undefeated in regulation. Inform the committee. Simply don’t inform them the losses had been to Syracuse, Delaware and Rice.
Do you suppose the committee will enable a staff to overlook its convention championship recreation and nonetheless get a first-round bye? It appears unfair, however Georgia is already within the prime 4 and can seemingly keep away from the SEC Championship. All of us complained in regards to the convention champs getting a bye robotically, and it was foolish final 12 months for Boise State to get one, however on the identical time it appears deeply unfair for a staff to get mainly a double bye. — Kyle L.
Perhaps the CFP ought to simply don’t have any agency guidelines from 12 months to 12 months, and as an alternative wait to see how the season performs out and construct the format from there.
Is that this a 12 months the place the ACC/Massive 12/G5 champs are fairly good? Then it’s decreed: Solely convention champs get byes.
Is it a 12 months the place the highest 4 groups are all Massive Ten and SEC? Straight seeding, then.
Oh, however a kind of 4 missed its convention title recreation? In that case, new rule. It’d be the highest 4 groups that made their convention title recreation, win or lose.
Oh, however a kind of groups misplaced by three touchdowns? Then we solely have three byes that 12 months, and we add a thirteenth staff to get to 4 quarterfinals.
My level is: There may be by no means, ever going to be an ideal postseason format. I’d nonetheless fairly have a straight-up prime 4, even when it means Georgia will get an “unfair” benefit, than a contrived bracket like we had final 12 months when No. 1 (within the CFP rankings) Oregon drew No. 6 Ohio State in a single quarterfinal whereas No. 4 Penn State performed No. 9 Boise State.
Additionally, had been that to occur, I’m undecided Kirby Sensible would contemplate it a bonus. You noticed what occurred to the bye groups final 12 months, together with with Sensible’s personal staff. And this may be a good longer break. Georgia’s final regular-season recreation is Nov. 28, and it wouldn’t play once more till Dec. 31 or Jan. 1, towards an opponent that performed lower than two weeks earlier.
Maybe some coaches would nonetheless want the remaining and restoration time over the damage and tear of an additional recreation. Sensible doesn’t strike me as certainly one of them.
