The NFL’s convention championships are Sunday, and the betting market is loaded with participant props. That is why we’re bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting a number of the high choices for every of this weekend’s pivotal playoff video games.
My weekly betting playbook options a number of information factors for each of this weekend’s video games, together with my evaluation of some notable strains I am curious about betting, though this text is designed in a means that means that you can choose your individual favorites.
Solely for ESPN+ members: If you would like to see a listing of round 100 props and my really useful performs for every, please click on on this hyperlink.
Word: Odds by ESPN BET and proper as of time of publication.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens -3.5M&T Financial institution Stadium, BaltimoreSunday, 3 p.m. ET
Cash line: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (+170); Baltimore Ravens (-200)
Complete: 44.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favourite: Ravens by 4.6 (63.6% to win outright)
Clay’s projected rating: Ravens 26, Chiefs 20
Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 passing makes an attempt (-110): I am doubling down right here, as I really useful this identical play final week, and we took certainly one of our solely L’s through the playoffs. The loss was a little bit of a nasty beat, because the Chiefs ran 47 offensive snaps, which was a season low by six performs (they’d averaged 60.1 snaps per sport of their prior 18 video games). Kansas Metropolis nonetheless referred to as a pass-first offense after working the league’s game-script-adjusted, pass-heaviest scheme through the common season. Together with final week’s season-low 23, Mahomes is now averaging 36.7 passing makes an attempt per sport. That quantity jumps to 40.0 per sport in Kansas Metropolis’s six losses (38-plus in 5 of these six), which is notable, because the Chiefs are street underdogs. Mahomes has averaged 40.1 makes an attempt per sport in his 4 profession video games towards Baltimore (37-plus in three out of the 4, and all three of these have been wins). The Ravens confronted 37.1 passing makes an attempt per sport through the common season (second most), with 10 out of 18 opponents reaching 37 makes an attempt.
Roquan Smith over 2.5 assists (-135): Smith has performed on 97% of Baltimore’s defensive snaps throughout 17 energetic video games this season. The every-down off-ball linebacker averaged 4.5 assists throughout these video games, having reached three in 15 out of 17.
Justin Madubuike over 2.5 whole tackles (-135) and over 0.5 assists (-230): Madubuike has been a mainstay for Baltimore at defensive sort out this season, having performed on 66% of snaps throughout 18 video games. The four-year vet is averaging 3.3 whole and 1.1 assists per sport. He is reached three whole tackles in 12 video games (together with 11 of his final 14) and has no less than one help in 12 video games (together with six of his final seven).
Justin Reid beneath 2.5 assists (-190): Reid hardly ever leaves the sphere (he is performed on 97% of the Chiefs’ defensive snaps in 18 video games this season) and but he would not generate many assists. The standout security is averaging 1.3 helpers per sport and has reached three in solely three of these 18 outings. One of many three exceptions got here towards the Payments final week, however word that Reid had season-high marks in snaps (75) and whole tackles (11) in what was an unusually high-volume sport for the protection.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers -7Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CaliforniaSunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Cash line: Detroit Lions (+260); San Francisco 49ers (-320)
Complete: 50.5; Opened: 51.5
FPI favourite: 49ers by 8.5 (74.1% to win outright)
Clay’s projected rating: 49ers 30, Lions 26
Brandon Aiyuk beneath 5.5 receptions (-165): That is Aiyuk’s highest reception line of the season, which makes it a reasonably straightforward fade. Aiyuk caught three passes towards the Packers final week and is averaging 4.6 per sport in 17 outings this season. He is reached six receptions solely 5 occasions. Deebo Samuel might be sidelined, however word that within the three video games Samuel was out or barely performed through the common season, Aiyuk’s catch totals have been 4, 5, 5 and three. San Francisco’s wideouts ranked thirtieth in targets as a gaggle through the common season.
David Montgomery over 1.5 receptions (+122): Montgomery caught three passes final week towards the Buccaneers and has now managed no less than two receptions in seven of his 16 video games this season. He is run routes on 32% of Detroit’s passing performs, although that utilization has elevated through the playoffs (40% towards the Rams, 43% towards Tampa Bay). The 49ers confronted the third-most passing makes an attempt and allowed the fifth-most RB receptions through the common season. Together with final week’s win, San Francisco has allowed two-plus receptions to 26 RBs in 18 video games.
Jameson Williams beneath 2.5 receptions (-120): Williams has had precisely two receptions in three straight video games and has reached three catches solely twice in his 20 profession video games. Regardless of seeing his snap share bump as much as 63% since Week 11, Williams hasn’t been focused a lot (3.3 per sport through the span) and has a complete of simply 9 targets over his final three outings.
Nick Bosa over 2.5 whole tackles (-180), over 0.5 assists (-210), beneath 0.5 sacks (+125): There’s a bunch of worth on Bosa this week. Excluding a Week 18 sport through which he was on the sphere for under seven performs, Bosa has performed on a wholesome 80% of the 49ers’ defensive snaps. He is averaging 3.2 whole tackles (three-plus in 12 out of 17, together with 11 of his previous 13) and 1.1 assists (no less than one in 12 outings) per sport. Detroit has allowed 10.4 tackles per sport to opposing edge rushers (seventh highest). Even at an unpleasant vig, the sort out overs are value a glance. The “beneath” on sacks at plus cash can also be engaging, as Bosa has 10.5 sacks on the season and has fallen wanting one full sack in 10 out of 17 video games, together with three straight. Taking part in behind Detroit’s terrific line, Jared Goff has had one of many league’s lowest sack charges in each of the previous two seasons. He is been sacked at a fee of 1.8 per sport in 19 outings this season.
Arik Armstead over 0.5 assists (-190): Armstead has had no less than one help in 9 out of 13 video games this season (1.1 per sport), together with six straight (1.7 per sport through the span). He missed a piece of the common season as a result of damage, however performed on a beneficiant 68% of snaps towards Inexperienced Bay final week whereas registering two assists.
Alex Anzalone over 4.5 solos (-115): Anzalone hardly ever leaves the sphere, having performed on 98% of Detroit’s defensive snaps in 18 energetic video games this season. He averaged 5.3 solos per sport throughout these outings, hitting 5 in 12 of the video games, together with five-plus in 4 consecutive contests.
