After Opening Weekend and Strade Bianche introduced within the begin of the spring Classics season, consideration now turns to the primary Monument of the 12 months at Milan-San Remo on Saturday.
The well-known race, the longest on the calendar, returns for its a hundred and fifteenth version this week, with its route operating 288km from a brand new place to begin in Pavia earlier than taking within the traditional climbs of the Turchino, three Capi, Cipressa, and the all-important Poggio.
As traditional, there’s all kinds of contenders lining up in the beginning to tackle the six-and-a-half-hour problem, with GC contenders, puncheurs, sprinters, and time triallists all in with a shout of coming to the end line on Through Roma forward of the remaining.
175 riders from 25 groups will take the beginning on Saturday morning, although just one will add their identify to an honour roll that features current champions such because the absent Wout van Aert, demon descender Matej Mohorič, and reigning champion Mathieu van der Poel.
Learn on for our have a look at the contenders, outsiders, and honourable mentions for the win at Milan-San Remo.
5 favourites
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Nicely, now we have to start out off with the 2023 winner, actually, do not we? As he has for the final two seasons, the Dutch celebrity has held off his highway season debut till a March assembly in Italy, final 12 months taking in Strade Bianche and Tirreno-Adriatico earlier than storming to a 5.5km solo win right here.
Final outing he caught it out on the entrance of the race up the Poggio as Tadej Pogačar put in a collection of blistering assaults earlier than hanging out himself excessive. On the best way down the opposite facet, he held off an elite chase together with Pogačar, Van Aert, and Filippo Ganna, extending his lead on the flat to grow to be the primary Dutch winner since 1985.
That is a technique for him to safe the glory this outing, too, although a frighteningly in-form Pogačar will certainly push the envelope even additional on the best way as much as try to get free.
One other tactic, after all, is utilizing his highly effective dash – you’d fancy him in a touch for the road in opposition to all of the however he purest of quick males, and positively if he is accompanied to the end by the boys who had been chasing him final 12 months.
Van der Poel will take pleasure in assist – and different choices – from sprinter Jasper Philipsen and Søren Kragh Andersen. There hasn’t been a bunch dash on the end since 2016, although, and even when Kragh Andersen has completed among the many high 10 for the previous three years, he is undoubtedly an outdoor guess.
In a race which has been identified through the years as a sprinter’s Traditional greater than anything, the concept that Grand Tour contenders can be among the many high favourites is one thing of an anomaly.
Nonetheless, Pogačar is not any regular Grand Tour racer, having proven again and again that he’s a person for the Classics as a lot as any stage race. And with Milan-San Remo trending ever additional away from bunch dash finishes, the Slovenian changing into solely the second Grand Tour winner to win right here in virtually three a long time (Vincenzo Nibali in 2018) is much from an extended shot.
He is completed twelfth, fifth, and fourth in his opening three participations and as soon as once more involves the beginning trying so as to add a win right here to his triumphs at three of the opposite 4 Monuments.
As the shape sheet goes, he is been nearly as good as anybody in 2024, regardless of competing at just one race day. Because of the nature of the route, an 81km solo journey like he pulled off at Strade Bianche is in no way possible right here however count on extra repeated attacking and a blistering tempo up the Poggio as he and his group search to dispense with the Classics males in addition to the sprinters.
A number of different contenders take pleasure in a stronger dash than Pogačar, so his greatest probability of a win stays to interrupt clear over the Poggio, whereas in Tim Wellens, Brandon McNulty, and Marc Hirschi he may also look to a number of teammates who’ve proven good type to date this spring for assist.
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One rider who has began the 12 months in flying type is former world champion Mads Pedersen, who has six wins to his identify throughout the Etoile des Bessèges and Tour de la Provence in addition to a few runner-up spots at Paris-Good.
As a robust sprinter who can recover from the hills and who loves the Classics, Pedersen is nearly the proper archetype for fulfillment at Milan-San Remo, although has solely began the race twice, delivering two sixth-place finishes prior to now two editions.
Pedersen is all the time up there among the many cream of the crop over the Poggio, although has tended to observe these pushing the tempo slightly than main the best way himself. That fits him advantageous, nevertheless, along with his dash end on paper being a quicker one than the likes of Van der Poel, Pogačar, Ganna and loads of others.
In contrast to others, he does not want to interrupt free on the Poggio or the run into San Remo, although he’ll have to make sure he is among the many lead group on the Through Roma regardless. A situation such because the 17-man dash his teammate Jasper Stuyven succeeded in three years in the past would swimsuit him nicely.
Stuyven is again this 12 months as a part of a squad which might look to a number of potential leaders, with Tirreno-Adriatico double-stage winner Jonathan Milan an choice for a big group end and Strade Bianche runner-up Toms Skujinš at first of what could possibly be a breakthrough spring Classics season.
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Together with Milan, ought to the race finish with a now-rare mass dash end, Filippo Ganna is the large residence hope for Italian followers, having recorded a career-best second place final March.
The highly effective time trial star loved a breakthrough San Remo in 2023, having by no means positioned within the high 50 earlier than, crossing the Poggio among the many elite lead group earlier than going lengthy to outsprint Van Aert and Pogačar on the line.
Ganna will not be aiming for a dash of any description on Saturday, nevertheless, with the 27-year-old’s strengths mendacity in his slow-twitch energy. As such, his greatest probabilities of a win would lie in a Cancellara-esque transfer on the run in direction of San Remo on the backside of the Poggio descent.
Cancellara pulled off that particular win 16 years in the past now, and with solo victories now normally involving a transfer over the Poggio or down the descent, one from Ganna can be one other to final within the reminiscence – along with being a now-rare residence success.
Ineos Grenadiers may also look to Tom Pidcock as a joint-first choice, with the Briton possessing the shape (fourth at Strade Bianche and high 10 at Algarve, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Tirreno), the descending abilities, a superb end, and the flexibility to race over the Poggio with the perfect of them.
One of many breed of multi-disciplinary all-round stars, Pidcock might have his personal spot among the many favourites right here, however for our personal self-imposed rule to restrict this checklist to at least one rider per group. 2017 winner Michał Kwiatkowski is one other Ineos Grenadiers choice however will possible journey in a assist function except he is flying.
One other of the Slovenian stars who can excel on a number of terrains, from the hills to the cobbles, Mohorič is the proud proprietor of the profitable trophy after maybe probably the most memorable journey in current Milan-San Remo historical past.
Maybe not a high favorite earlier than 2022, the Bahrain Victorious chief positioned himself firmly among the many elite checklist of contenders along with his dropper post-aided daring descent two years in the past.
He crossed the highest of the Poggio a couple of locations again from the entrance after which proceeded to maneuver up and away from the likes of Van der Poel, Pogačar, and Pedersen, even overcoming a briefly dropped chain on the best way to seize the win by two seconds.
Given his expertise for breakaways and descending, a stab at an identical transfer appears the most suitable choice for a repeat win on Saturday, even when he’ll be watched like a hawk ought to he crest the Poggio among the many leaders.
A fifth place at Strade Bianche, albeit over 4 minutes behind Pogačar, reveals he is in good type this month, whereas his group additionally has a wholesome backup choice within the versatile quick finisher, British champion Fred Wright.
5 outsiders
Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease A Bike)
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Visma-Lease A Bike do not have their Classics celebrity Wout van Aert in the beginning line this 12 months, however the Dutch squad can look to 2 choices for fulfillment in San Remo in rising dash star Olav Kooij and European champion Christophe Laporte.
Given his expertise (9 earlier begins together with a few thirteenth locations) and good type to start out the season, Laporte is maybe extra prone to contend for the win on Saturday. The Frenchman’s quick end and powerful Classics showings in current seasons possible locations him because the group’s first choice.
Nonetheless, ought to the race conclude with a mass bunch dash then Kooij is unquestionably close to the highest of the checklist of favourites. The 22-year-old is bang in type, having picked up 4 dash wins throughout the Clásica Almería, UAE Tour and Paris-Good, and beating the likes of Tim Merlier and Mads Pedersen alongside the best way.
It might actually be fascinating to see how he’d fare in a head-to-head in opposition to names like Pedersen, Philipsen, Milan, and Caleb Ewan, even when the prospect of such a big group coming to the end is much less possible than it as soon as was.
One other issue to contemplate is that surviving the Poggio is one factor, however being on the entrance and able to dash after 288km is one other. Kooij has taken on comparable distances earlier than (forty fifth on the 271km 2022 Worlds and eighth on the 261km 2023 Gent-Wevelgem) however a San Remo debut, and 20-30km extra within the legs is a unique proposition.
Within the not-too-distant previous, 2019 San Remo winner Alaphilippe could possibly be thought of amongst that ‘celebrity’ class of versatile racers alongside Van der Poel, Pogačar, Van Aert and co. Nonetheless, the Frenchman has largely endured slightly than loved the final two seasons, affected by accidents, type, and media criticism from his Soudal-QuickStep supervisor Patrick Lefevere.
Alaphilippe hasn’t managed to recapture the hovering heights of the 2018-2021 seasons which noticed him briefly contend for the Tour de France, run riot at La Flèche Wallonne, win the rainbow jersey twice in a row, and rack up wins at San Remo and Strade Bianche.
Consequently, he is fallen down the pecking order within the checklist of names one reaches for at races like this, and because of this, he is down at 66/1 (+6600) within the betting odds right here – outdoors the highest 10 favourites.
Alaphilippe’s 2024 to date hasn’t been crammed with success, with a sixth general on the Tour Down Underneath and a high 10 on stage 4 of Tirreno-Adriatico his greatest returns of the season. His standing as a former winner means he cannot be ignored, nevertheless, and along with his contract up on the finish of the 12 months, this spring is unquestionably the time to start out performing once more.
Like different names on our checklist, Girmay is a flexible sprinter who can survive the hilly days and compete on the end even when he isn’t a pure out-and-out finisher. Good for Milan-San Remo, then.
The Eritrean has taken half in La Classicissima twice earlier than, ending twelfth and twenty eighth, and hasn’t fairly but been among the many elite choice excessive of the Poggio, which implies he isn’t fairly in the identical dialog as Pogačar and Van der Poel this 12 months.
Nonetheless, everyone knows Girmay’s high quality even when he hasn’t but hit the heights of his breakthrough spring two years in the past when he gained Gent-Wevelgem and a Giro d’Italia stage – the latter memorably forward of Van der Poel.
Since then, his Intermarché-Wanty have rebuilt largely across the 23-year-old prior to now two winters, meting out with a number of huge contracts and climbing specialists alongside the best way. They, and he, had been unlucky final spring as his Classics season was wrecked by sickness, whereas this 12 months there have been a couple of optimistic indicators of type, albeit coming again in January in Australia.
Apart from a top-five on stage 4 in Tirreno-Adriatico, Girmay hasn’t had a lot to shout about since that Surf Coast Traditional win, however his important targets lie throughout the subsequent month – starting with one other go to to Liguria on Saturday.
EF Schooling-EasyPost might have a house favorite and Monument winner of their ranks in Alberto Bettiol, however its American rider Neilson Powless whose star has been on the rise in current seasons.
The 27-year-old has grown right into a Classics contender since 2021 when he gained the Donostia Klasikoa and scored a high 5 on the Leuven Worlds. He additionally has high 5 placings at Dwars door Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders to his identify, plus high 10s right here and at Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
And so Powless, who took seventh on his second San Remo begin final outing, now finds himself in elevated firm among the many high favourites on Saturday, even when he is had a quiet begin to his season.
He’ll enter the race in a tier beneath the very high favourites, as mirrored by his place in our rating. Powless actually has the flexibility to contend, however how does he win? It might be a shock if he had been to go away behind the most important names on the Poggio, whereas a number of others are quicker finishers. Nonetheless, he’ll be one to look out for on the entrance because the tempo ramps up on the ultimate climb this weekend.
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Matthews is one other rider who matches the mould for fulfillment at Milan-San Remo – a quick finisher who has the stamina to push on the finish of lengthy Classics and likewise has the power to recover from these late hills amongst stronger climbers.
He is a perennial contender right here, with two podiums and 5 high 10s to his identify throughout 10 begins and can as soon as once more be amongst these names within the combine for the highest placings on the Through Roma.
His podium finishes have come amongst a gaggle of 26 (in 2015) and a chase group of 23 (in 2020), whereas two years in the past he was third amongst eight within the dash behind Mohorič. His greatest probability at success can be from such a lowered group, offering the assaults on the Poggio ascent and descent will be reigned in.
He is loved a optimistic begin to 2024, recording a number of high 10s on the Volta Valenciana and Paris-Good, plus a win on the GP Castellón, although he was pressured to go away the French race early with a abdomen drawback.
Caleb Ewan, a two-time runner-up in San Remo, is another choice for Jayco-AlUla. The sprinter is actually among the many favourites ought to there be a big bunch end as he begins afresh with Jayco following an acrimonious finish to his time at Lotto-Dstny.
Honourable mentions
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Benoît Cosnefroy is maybe the strongest tip from this batch of names who lie outdoors our high 10 alternatives for fulfillment. The Frenchman, racing for the primary time in Decathlon AG2R’s new ‘galaxy’ package, hasn’t been close to competition in two earlier begins however as one of many peloton’s premier punchers, he deserves a glance. His good type – sixth at Strade Bianche and the general winner on the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes – marks him as one to look at. 2019 runner-up Oliver Naesen can also be an choice for the group.
Stefan Küng leads Groupama-FDJ on the race following the winter departure of 2016 winner Arnaud Démare. The Swiss powerhouse has by no means been in competition on the pointy finish of San Remo, racing twice and ending outdoors the highest 50 on each events, although he is a seasoned Classics contender who in principle will be among the many leaders on the Poggio, even when a late Cancellara-style assault is his greatest guess at glory.
For Arkéa-B&B Motels chief Arnaud Démare, a repeat of his win eight seasons in the past appears one thing of a distant prospect. The Frenchman hasn’t gained at WorldTour degree since 2022 and has solely as soon as troubled the highest of the standings within the final 5 years. Nonetheless, as a former winner, he can by no means be discounted.
Fellow Frenchman Anthony Turgis is rarely the primary identify one reaches for as a high Classics contender, however the 29-year-old has proven he has the flexibility, if not the consistency to compete for wins at this degree. The TotalEnergies chief, nonetheless looking for a breakthrough WorldTour-level win, was second right here two years in the past and likewise has podiums at Dwars door Vlaanderen and Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne to his identify.
Veteran Italian racer Matteo Trentin leads the cost for Swiss wildcard squad Tudor Professional Biking. The 34-year-old has a handful of tenth locations to his identify right here, and a few good early season outcomes (high 10s at Omloop and two phases at Paris-Good, plus third at Almería) present he is removed from a spent pressure.
One other former winner amongst seven on the beginning line in Pavia, Uno-X Mobility chief Alexander Kristoff is constructed for races like Milan-San Remo. Now in his fifteenth 12 months within the peloton and a decade on from his lowered dash victory at a grim seven-hour version, the 36-year-old can by no means be dismissed as a contender, even when he final troubled the highest spots six years in the past with a fourth-place end.
Israel-Premier Tech can look to a pair of outsiders to guide them into Milan-San Remo this 12 months, as 37-year-old Australian Simon Clarke begins alongside a New Zealander 14 years his junior in Corbin Sturdy. Clarke has a high 10 at this race on his palmarès, whereas the versatile and fast Sturdy is breaking by means of with a collection of optimistic outcomes that recommend he is one for the Classics in future (second on the GP Québec, fourth on the Cadel Evans Nice Ocean Highway Race, amongst others).
