T-Cell Park in Seattle is the hardest hitters park
nn”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”thumbnail_url”:null,”sort”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”wealthy”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”Keep in mind, first, that T-Cell’s roof being closed doesn’t actually make it a domed stadium, like occurs in Toronto when the Blue Jays shut their roof. As a substitute, it’s extra of a overlaying to guard towards precipitation. Exterior air can nonetheless enter, and the temperature doesn’t change a lot. (“It is a massive umbrella on wheels,” Mariners groundskeeper Tim Wilson stated in 2021.)nn”I feel we did it extra final 12 months, shut the roof, like when it was notably chilly or windy than we have carried out within the earlier seven years that I had been right here,” stated Mariners common supervisor Justin Hollander in December. “We simply decided primarily based on the consolation of gamers and followers, to shut the roof and try to tamp down the wind a bit of bit.”nnThe knowledge doesn’t completely help that – the roof was closed as usually because it was the earlier two seasons – although Hollander is clearly right that it’s been closed extra the final three years than within the earlier three full seasons.”,”sort”:”textual content”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”*% of video games with roof closed in Seattle*nn* **2024** // 16percentn* **2023** // 16percentn* **2022** // 16percentn* **2021** // 11percentn* **2019** // 4percentn* **2018** // 8%”,”sort”:”textual content”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”Nevertheless it won’t have mattered a lot. During the last three years, the park suppressed offense by 9% with the roof closed, and 9% with the roof open. Over the identical span, their hitters at residence struck out 26% and slugged .383 with the roof open, and 27% and .355 [with the roof closed](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=7,284&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=crew&statgroup=2&startDate=2022-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&gamers=&filter=&groupBy=profession&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&place=B&kind=4,1). As we stated, the canopy-type roof signifies that it stays chilly even when it’s closed. This won’t be it.”,”sort”:”textual content”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”### **What does all of it imply?**nnIf the park isn’t going to vary – or if adjustments haven’t helped – possibly the strategy can. It wasn’t a giant pattern, however it was price nothing what occurred on the finish of the season. In late August, the Mariners made a lot of teaching adjustments, together with returning franchise legend Martinez to the hitting coach position he’d held from 2015-18. The September Mariners had by far their greatest month of the season, notably at residence, slicing their strikeout price from August’s 30% to 23%, and posting a .774 OPS – their greatest month at residence in additional than a 12 months.nnMaybe it’s a small pattern fluke – we’re half of 1 month. The roster had modified too, as veterans Justin Turner, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles had been acquired in-season, whereas star Julio Rodríguez had shaken off his typical cool begin to end sturdy. However, hitters raved about Martinez’s “liners up the center strategy,” and he’ll direct the crew’s hitting program in 2025 with Kevin Seitzer as the brand new every day coach.nn“Our ballpark won’t be conducive to doing it fairly the best way we’ve (prior to now),” Dipoto stated in late September. “Disgrace on us for taking this lengthy to know that.”nn“It is simply adapting a crew to the ballpark,” Dipoto advised MLB.com in December. “It isn’t making an attempt to adapt the ballpark to some fictional crew.”nnPerhaps so – although the underlying knowledge about pull price and grounders wasn’t meaningfully completely different, not moreso than merely the roster adjustments. (Though it’s price mentioning that Raleigh actually did have a large strikeout drop, from 33% within the first half to 22% within the second.) File the September Mariners enchancment below “intriguing, not but convincing.”nnEither approach, this isn’t a brand new subject. It’s not one the crew has ignored, or not tried to repair. It’s extremely troublesome to hit at T-Cell. It all the time has been. It is a greater issue than most individuals take into account – and it’s vital to maintain that in thoughts if you’re anxious about whether or not or not Mariners hitters are profitable.nn*MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer contributed to the reporting of this text. MLB.com knowledge scientist Clay Nunnally provided tailwind analysis. MLB.com’s Jason Bernard assisted with hour-by-hour analysis.*”,”sort”:”textual content”}],”relativeSiteUrl”:”/information/seattle-t-mobile-park-tough-hitters-park-analysis”,”contentType”:”information”,”subHeadline”:”Unraveling an offense-sapping thriller within the Pacific Northwest”,”abstract”:”Ask a dozen baseball followers which stadium they suppose created probably the most excessive park results in 2024, and invariably most or all of them offers you the identical reply: Coors Subject. Colorado’s ballpark is known for the excessive altitude that impacts how pitches transfer and the large outfield that’s”,”tagline({“formatString”:”none”})”:null,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”storytype-article”,”title”:”Article”,”type”:”article”},{“__typename”:”ContributorTag”,”slug”:”mike-petriello”,”title”:”Mike Petriello”,”type”:”contributor”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-136″,”title”:”Seattle Mariners”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:136″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”savant”,”title”:”savant”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”player-tracking”,”title”:”Statcast”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”sort”:”story”,”thumbnail”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/picture/add/{formatInstructions}/mlb/lhqan8zepk1b5t2hxclb”,”title”:”T-Cell Park in Seattle is the hardest hitters park”},”webPropertiesCollection({“restrict”:1,”locale”:”en-US”,”preview”:false,”the 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Unraveling an offense-sapping thriller within the Pacific Northwest
2:22 PM UTC
Ask a dozen baseball followers which stadium they suppose created probably the most excessive park results in 2024, and invariably most or all of them offers you the identical reply: Coors Subject. Colorado’s ballpark is known for the excessive altitude that impacts how pitches transfer and the large outfield that’s unattainable for outfielders to cowl.
They’d be flawed. Coors Subject, in response to Statcast’s park components, boosted offense by 10%. Seattle’s T-Cell Park, on the opposite finish, suppressed it by 11%. Whereas Seattle doesn’t outdo Denver in most years, it’s usually shut, and for at the very least one 12 months, the Pacific Northwest was king.
Essentially the most impactful ballfield in 2024, because it seems, wasn’t a mile excessive. It was at an elevation of all of 10 ft above sea degree.
It additionally made it troublesome for Mariners batters to look good at residence, and so they largely didn’t. Seattle hitters at residence have been thirtieth in common, twenty ninth in slugging, and twenty eighth in runs scored, all dreadful numbers. But on the highway, they have been twenty second, fifteenth, and twelfth, respectively. If not an awesome offense, the highway Mariners have been at the very least a median one.
That very same impact additionally makes Mariners pitchers look significantly higher. Keep in mind once we stated that the Mariners offense had the bottom residence batting common? The flip facet of that’s that Seattle pitching allowed the bottom residence batting common. In truth, at .205, it was really the fifth-lowest full-season mark in full-season baseball historical past. Whereas that’s not unrelated to the Mariners’ high quality rotation, it’s not simply that, both. The Mariners workers had the very best strikeout price (27.2%) at residence, but it was tied for twentieth on the highway (21.6%).
Whereas the Mariners have been a median run-prevention crew on the highway – 351, precisely fifteenth – again in Seattle, they allowed simply 256 runs, or barely 72% as many. That whole of 256 is the third-lowest whole of any crew within the final eight seasons.
In the identical approach Coors Subject makes it troublesome to judge how useful a Rockies participant actually is, so does T-Cell Park, simply in the wrong way. Most parks are inside some type of vary of “common.” Not in Denver, and never in Seattle, both.
You are excited about the temperature, and the marine layer, and we’ll get to all of that as a result of it issues. But, stunningly, none of that seems to be the first subject right here. What’s actually plaguing hitters at T-Cell is the type of park issue that typically doesn’t get thought-about when you concentrate on the sorts of issues a park can do.
It seems, by the numbers and the statements, to be baseball’s largest strikeout manufacturing facility. It creates strikeouts. In the identical approach that Kansas Metropolis’s Kauffman Stadium is a greater hitting park than you’d anticipate, given how onerous it’s to homer right here, just because batters are likely to swing and miss much less usually there, the hitting points in Seattle start even earlier than contact is made – after which proceed after that.
Put it this manner: Eight Mariners pitchers threw at the very least 20 innings each residence and away, and all eight of them had larger strikeout charges at residence – none extra an outlier than reliever Andrés Muñoz, who had this totally hilarious residence/highway break up:
Street, 2024: 4.28 ERA, 25% Okay, .225/.352/.392
“It is undoubtedly onerous to hit right here,” Mariners utilityman Dylan Moore advised MLB.com, and he ought to know, as a result of in 2024, he was the flip facet of Muñoz.
Final 12 months, Moore struck out 34% of the time at residence, but simply 24% of the time on the highway; his residence OPS (.503) was 337 factors decrease than his highway OPS (.840). Among the many 1000’s and 1000’s of gamers who had at the very least 190 residence plate appearances for the reason that Wild Card period started in 1995, Moore’s 2024 confirmed the third-largest residence/highway break up – and his teammate, J.P. Crawford, was sixth on that record, dropping 282 factors of OPS at residence.
“There’s plenty of outfield to cowl within the chilly and winter months, on each side, each ends of the season,” Moore continued. “It is a bit of bit more durable. There’s various factors that go into it, versus different ballparks that possibly do not have these components. It is solely sizzling possibly a pair months out of the 12 months, however on the finish of the day, you most likely get rather less bang in your buck, I assume might be one of the best ways to explain it.”
Moore is correct that it’s chilly there (the common temperature of 62.9 levels was thirtieth of thirtieth ballparks), and evaluating the precise wOBA on contact (.340) to the anticipated wOBA on contact (.367), primarily based on the standard of exit velocity and launch angle hitters made there, the ensuing deficit of 27 factors was the most important of any venue within the Majors. (Coors, to match, added 29 factors of worth.)
The numbers all again Moore up. Final 12 months, hard-hit balls pulled within the air in Seattle carried 5.3 ft lower than common, the second-weakest carry of any park – and practically 24 ft lower than the +18.4 ft that Coors Subject provided. In accordance with Climate Utilized Metrics knowledge, over the past two seasons, there have been 55 non-homers in Seattle that with a excessive diploma of confidence would have gone over the fence in calm circumstances, second-most misplaced dingers to Kansas Metropolis’s 65.
It was a lesson Cal Raleigh discovered final summer season, when this rocket to heart appeared to die softly into Mickey Moniak’s glove. The wind that day value it a whopping 28 ft of carry.
Much less bang in your buck, certainly.
It’s not a one-year subject, both. T-Cell’s park issue has been below-average basically yearly of the park. Apart from an odd blip in 2007-08, the strikeout price has been properly above common each season, peaking in 2024. (“100,” right here can be learn as “common,” so their 122 in 2024 means “22 p.c greater than common.”)
So: What’s actually happening right here? They’ve already tried transferring within the fences. It didn’t actually work. Apart from, how does a park create strikeouts? Let’s dive by some theories.
It’s the … batter’s eye?
That is the one which comes up probably the most, maybe greatest vocalised by Teoscar Hernández, a one-year Mariner who struggled badly at residence in Seattle in 2023, posting a .643 residence OPS that was practically 200 factors decrease than his highway OPS that 12 months.
“For some motive, I couldn’t determine it out,” Hernández advised the Seattle Occasions final summer season. “I couldn’t really feel good on the plate at residence. I speak to plenty of gamers across the league, and so they really feel the identical factor once they go to Seattle and play two or three video games over there,” Hernández stated. “That they had the identical feeling. So it was not solely me.”
“It was a bit of crooked,” Hernández added. “I didn’t really feel actually straight with the pitcher, for some motive. I moved all over the place within the batter’s field and tried to repair it, however I couldn’t determine it out.”
It’s hardly a brand new concern. Method again in 2003, Ichiro Suzuki and Mike Cameron requested crew execs if something could possibly be carried out in regards to the batter’s eye, and several other adjustments have been actually made. No much less a slugger than Alex Rodriguez as soon as stated that the ballpark was “the toughest park within the historical past of baseball” to hit in; in 2000, his solely full season calling the park residence, his .908 OPS there may sound spectacular … till you notice he posted an 1.135 OPS on the highway.
In 2004, the Submit-Intelligencer famous that future Corridor of Famer Edgar Martínez “nonetheless is not proud of the so-called batter’s eye hitting backdrop in heart subject, which he believes must be extra straight than at its present angle.” His residence OPS that 12 months? Precisely 100 factors decrease than his highway OPS.
There’s some thought that possibly it impacts righty pitchers disproportionately, given the place they launch the ball and the point of view, and it’s price noting that the Mariners constructed a workers nearly completely out of righties, to an excessive. Final 12 months, simply 6% of Mariners pitches got here from lefties – which is the bottom any crew has had since 2016.
Whereas A’s All-Star Brent Rooker did converse fairly positively final 12 months about taking part in in Seattle, it was extra in regards to the ambiance and personnel than the hitting expertise itself, remembering a ball that he’d hit extraordinarily onerous in 2023 that died on the warning monitor. However, Mike Trout particularly stated that “I really like hitting right here … I see the ball good,” and he’s backed it up, hitting .333/.435/.708 in 407 profession plate appearances in Seattle, practically a full season of labor. It’s not unattainable, and it doesn’t require Trout-level expertise, both. Journeyman outfielder Manuel Margot, for instance, has hit .286/.375/.667 in 48 plate appearances there.
However these are outliers, and the general developments are clear. So, what about it? There’s probably not a rating of batter’s eyes in any possible way, although FanGraphs has tried. We are able to’t inform you for positive if this issues, and the way a lot. However possibly we are able to at the very least see if this one is completely different, when it comes to angle and distance.
Because it seems, the angle of Seattle’s batter’s eye is certainly uncommon … however it’s not distinctive. Of the 30 parks in use in 2024, we depend 24 of them that had batter’s eyes that have been completely straight (0 levels left to proper) or shut sufficient that it’s not price parsing. Three had angles the place the attention was angled significantly from left subject to proper, when it comes to getting farther away as you go to proper subject (suppose Fenway Park) and three, like T-Cell, had notable getting-farther-toward-left subject angles of 12 or extra levels – with Baltimore and Cleveland becoming a member of Seattle.
OK, so possibly Cleveland doesn’t fairly really feel the identical, with the bushes and greenery and nearer eye than the opposite two. However Baltimore’s eye is on a barely sharper angle than Seattle’s, and it’s farther from the fence, too – although Seattle’s does lengthen farther towards left subject. Each T-Cell and Camden Yards face the identical path as properly, every roughly common amongst Main League parks. So it could be this, given all of the speak from hitters, however it’s onerous to elucidate why not one of the identical points are current in Baltimore, too.
You possibly can take this both as “believable, since gamers maintain speaking about it and just one different park is basically like this” or “overrated, since there’s one other park like this that doesn’t have the identical points.”
Perhaps, although, it’s not simply the angle. It’s what the angle does.
In 2003, an Related Press article referenced “the ballpark’s infamous night glare” and the crew’s makes an attempt to fight it. Earlier than the 2002 season, they’d planted bushes in entrance of the batter’s eye, seemingly partly due to what infielder Bret Boone had stated to native media.
“We are able to see fantastic,” Boone stated. “The one time we will not see is throughout these 4 o’clock begins on a sunny day once they refuse to shut the roof.” Which will have been so, but Boone, surprisingly, had posted no residence/highway or day/evening splits in any respect the earlier 12 months, his first as a Mariner. As for the bushes, they didn’t even final a full season; the crew eliminated them in August, 2002, with a crew exec saying “most of our hitters needed them eliminated.”
Boone, weeks earlier than, had stated “it is a unhealthy feeling to get up within the morning and suppose, ‘We’ve a 6 p.m. recreation, oh, nice,’” a sense echoed by catcher (and now supervisor) Dan Wilson, who had stated that the early night gentle “could be so good it’s blinding … it is onerous to choose up velocity and spin.”
One analyst, Ryan Blake, dug into the thought not too long ago, wanting particularly into time of day and the place of the solar, going far deeper into altering facets of altitude and azimuth than we’re going to do right here. “Efficiency actually adjustments with the solar in Seattle,” he wrote, mentioning that “the solar is, definitively, a predictor of efficiency in Seattle.”
Blake – and Boone, and Wilson, many years earlier than – could be onto one thing, given what president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto stated to MLB.com on the Winter Conferences in December.
“I do not suppose it is an on a regular basis factor,” Dipoto stated. “It is an occasional factor primarily based on the place of the solar at a given time for a brief time frame throughout a recreation.”
Does the information again it up? Perhaps. We checked out Mariners hitters over the past 4 seasons at residence, excluding cloudy and overcast days – going for the clear and largely sunny days that Boone was referring to – and checked out what time of day the very best whiff charges have been seen. Wouldn’t you understand it: The one three hours, on these non-overcast days, the place it received above 30% have been 4 p.m., 5 p.m., and 6 p.m.. The one occasions the place the sunny/clear whiff price was greater than 1 level larger than the general whiff price have been within the 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. hours.
The “possibly” there’s that this may change over the numerous months of the 12 months because the solar is in numerous factors within the sky at completely different occasions, and we haven’t dug that far into it – plus the sample wasn’t precisely the identical for the pitchers. However: possibly.
“The difficulty,” Dipoto advised MLB.com, “simply could be the angle of the ballpark, and I do not suppose you may reconstruct the ballpark, so it might be a difficult factor to do.”
It’s the … wind! However not the wind you suppose it’s.
If you hear about wind affecting a baseball recreation, you’re normally considering of the gusts that, relying on the time of 12 months, could make a spot like Wrigley Subject play like two utterly completely different parks. Once we appeared into the well-known Ted Williams “crimson seat” in Boston, we decided that his residence run was most likely extra like 525-530 ft, partly as a result of there have been gale-force winds within the space that day. As we stated above: the ball actually doesn’t carry properly at T-Cell Park. That’s identified. However that’s solely an element when you hit it.
Due to the partnership with Climate Utilized Metrics, Statcast has over the past two seasons been higher capable of measure the consequences of wind in every park. Whereas Seattle isn’t the windiest park general, would you be shocked to be taught that it’s tied with one other infamous pitcher’s park, San Francisco’s Oracle Park, for probably the most tailwind? To think about what meaning in observe, simply take into consideration how a lot quicker you may fly cross-country from west-to-east, with the wind at your again, as in comparison with east-to-west, into the wind. Shifting air can have an effect on a aircraft, and it may have an effect on a baseball.
What does that imply in observe?
“Tailwind is nice for fastballs, unhealthy for breaking balls,” stated MLB.com knowledge scientist Clay Nunnally. “This chart is mainly displaying how environment friendly a park is at turning wind into tailwind, and Seattle is an outlier on this respect. In comparison with San Francisco, for instance, Seattle wants much less forcing perform (prevailing wind) to generate the identical quantity of tailwind on pitches.”
Good for fastballs? It’s price noting that on fastballs, Mariners pitchers had a significantly larger swing-and-miss price at residence (25%) than on the highway (20%) – and Mariners batters had the very same factor occur*,* 25% whiff at residence and 20% on the highway. We’d say that looks like a major issue that’s worthy of additional investigation.
It’s most likely not the roof.
Though the hitters undoubtedly have a robust choice.
Keep in mind, first, that T-Cell’s roof being closed doesn’t actually make it a domed stadium, like occurs in Toronto when the Blue Jays shut their roof. As a substitute, it’s extra of a overlaying to guard towards precipitation. Exterior air can nonetheless enter, and the temperature doesn’t change a lot. (“It is a massive umbrella on wheels,” Mariners groundskeeper Tim Wilson stated in 2021.)
“I feel we did it extra final 12 months, shut the roof, like when it was notably chilly or windy than we have carried out within the earlier seven years that I had been right here,” stated Mariners common supervisor Justin Hollander in December. “We simply decided primarily based on the consolation of gamers and followers, to shut the roof and try to tamp down the wind a bit of bit.”
The info doesn’t completely help that – the roof was closed as usually because it was the earlier two seasons – although Hollander is clearly right that it’s been closed extra the final three years than within the earlier three full seasons.
% of video games with roof closed in Seattle
2023 // 16%
2022 // 16%
2021 // 11%
2019 // 4%
2018 // 8%
Nevertheless it won’t have mattered a lot. During the last three years, the park suppressed offense by 9% with the roof closed, and 9% with the roof open. Over the identical span, their hitters at residence struck out 26% and slugged .383 with the roof open, and 27% and .355 with the roof closed. As we stated, the canopy-type roof signifies that it stays chilly even when it’s closed. This won’t be it.
If the park isn’t going to vary – or if adjustments haven’t helped – possibly the strategy can. It wasn’t a giant pattern, however it was price nothing what occurred on the finish of the season. In late August, the Mariners made a lot of teaching adjustments, together with returning franchise legend Martinez to the hitting coach position he’d held from 2015-18. The September Mariners had by far their greatest month of the season, notably at residence, slicing their strikeout price from August’s 30% to 23%, and posting a .774 OPS – their greatest month at residence in additional than a 12 months.
Perhaps it’s a small pattern fluke – we’re half of 1 month. The roster had modified too, as veterans Justin Turner, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles had been acquired in-season, whereas star Julio Rodríguez had shaken off his typical cool begin to end sturdy. However, hitters raved about Martinez’s “liners up the center strategy,” and he’ll direct the crew’s hitting program in 2025 with Kevin Seitzer as the brand new every day coach.
“Our ballpark won’t be conducive to doing it fairly the best way we’ve (prior to now),” Dipoto stated in late September. “Disgrace on us for taking this lengthy to know that.”
“It is simply adapting a crew to the ballpark,” Dipoto advised MLB.com in December. “It isn’t making an attempt to adapt the ballpark to some fictional crew.”
Maybe so – although the underlying knowledge about pull price and grounders wasn’t meaningfully completely different, not moreso than merely the roster adjustments. (Though it’s price mentioning that Raleigh actually did have a large strikeout drop, from 33% within the first half to 22% within the second.) File the September Mariners enchancment below “intriguing, not but convincing.”
Both approach, this isn’t a brand new subject. It’s not one the crew has ignored, or not tried to repair. It’s extremely troublesome to hit at T-Cell. It all the time has been. It is a greater issue than most individuals take into account – and it’s vital to maintain that in thoughts if you’re anxious about whether or not or not Mariners hitters are profitable.
MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer contributed to the reporting of this text. MLB.com knowledge scientist Clay Nunnally provided tailwind analysis. MLB.com’s Jason Bernard assisted with hour-by-hour analysis.