NBA 2025 offseason concern-o-meter: Giannis’ future, LeBron’s next steps and more

“It’s a copycat league.”

That’s what you hear concerning the NBA on a regular basis. One thing works for a workforce, and everyone desires to emulate it. That mentality additionally seeps into the sports activities media world. Our good friend Shayna Goldman from the NHL aspect of The Athletic just lately revealed a concern-o-meter relating to the NHL offseason blues (not St. Louis). The offseason motion wasn’t that quick and livid over there, and you can make comparable feedback concerning the NBA summer season.

As soon as Kevin Durant was traded to Houston, the offseason sputtered fairly a bit. We obtained the shock of Damian Lillard being waived and stretched and the Phoenix Suns pulling the plug on the Bradley Beal expertise, however not a ton of huge strikes had been made. It looks as if many groups are nonetheless attempting to determine the way to navigate the second-apron period, and there was little or no cap area out there and high-quality free brokers to pursue. So we’re stealing from Shayna and borrowing the concern-o-meter for the NBA world. Listed below are 10 potential purple flags which have popped up this summer season, and we’ll measure simply how a lot concern there needs to be for every scenario.

Giannis’s future with Milwaukee

Concern-o-meter: 7/10

No offense to Durant, however Giannis Antetokounmpo was the most important star everyone was taking a look at going into the NBA offseason. As soon as Lillard tore his Achilles within the first spherical of the playoffs and all of us realized how doomed this Bucks roster building was, the basketball world questioned if the Greek Freak would lastly determine his time in Milwaukee was achieved.

The Bucks made the daring transfer of placing $22.5 million of lifeless cap cash on their books for every of the following 5 seasons. That allowed them the flexibleness to interchange Brook Lopez at middle with Myles Turner. Not solely did they take away from a division rival, however they upgraded (in principle) their middle place. Lopez was extra constant in his function with the Bucks than Turner has been with Indiana, however Turner permits the Bucks to be extra versatile on the defensive finish.

Is that sufficient to maintain Giannis pleased? I don’t know. To Bucks GM Jon Horst’s credit score, each time there was concern about Antetokounmpo doubtlessly bolting, the franchise has made a daring transfer. Once we weren’t certain he’d signal a supermax extension to remain in Milwaukee, the Bucks made the deal for Jrue Vacation within the 2020 offseason and gained a title in 2021. When Giannis began speaking about how just one title in his profession wouldn’t be sufficient, they shocked everyone by buying and selling for Lillard. It didn’t work out, however on the time, most of us assumed it made them title contenders.

Possibly they’ve been quieted momentarily, however the questions this offseason following the Lillard damage haven’t been answered. The state of the Japanese Convention makes this extra palatable and a Disney movie-style triumph appear extra attainable. Encompass Giannis with protection and out of doors capturing. Make the video games ugly. Depend on Giannis to be a superhero. To cite that child in “Angels within the Outfield,” it may occur, although I don’t know if anyone ought to wager on it taking place.

For my part (no reporting right here), the most important factor holding hope for Giannis staying in Milwaukee is that I don’t totally imagine he’s keen to embrace the potential PR hit of bailing. I don’t even essentially assume this can be a advertising factor or about promoting sneakers or avoiding his jersey being burned on social media for clout (if persons are nonetheless doing that). I believe Giannis likes being universally preferred and genuinely loves being in Milwaukee, and that’s a troublesome capsule to danger swallowing in lots of aspects. However his aggressive drive would possibly ultimately override that if they’ll’t get him any nearer to a different title than the primary spherical.

Nikola Jokić not signing an extension

Concern-o-meter: 3/10

The Denver Nuggets supernova and one of many world’s main horse fanatics declined searching for a contract extension this offseason. Jokić has two extra assured years left on his deal for a complete of $114 million, plus a participant choice for the 2027-28 season that might pay him $62.8 million. He may have added three years and roughly $200 million to his present deal, which might have worn out his participant choice. By delaying this one other summer season, Jokić will probably be eligible for a fourth 12 months to that extension for about $77 million.

That is smart for him, and there shouldn’t be a lot concern right here. The Nuggets had been a little bit of a dumpster fireplace on the finish of final season, however since then, they made a heroic run deep into the second spherical due to how good Jokić is, and so they obtained nice wage aid by buying and selling Michael Porter Jr. and a first-round decide to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson. This allowed them the flexibleness so as to add Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown Jr. to what was a fairly anemic bench providing.

Denver went from a workforce you solely believed in due to Jokić to a workforce that now seems to be proper again with the world champion Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder within the hierarchy of the West. The one cause this meter is at a 3 as an alternative of a one is as a result of Jokić appears to like horse racing a lot and tolerate the NBA as a job that it wouldn’t shock me if he hit 32 or 33 years outdated and determined to retire.

The Philadelphia 76ers

Concern-o-meter: 8/10

When Paul George signed with the Sixers final summer season, I didn’t instantly embrace them within the contender zone, regardless of having Joel Embiid, George and Tyrese Maxey as their core. The Sixers had too many points with being wholesome and out there within the postseason to really feel like George was going to vary that, particularly contemplating his personal playoff shortcomings in his OKC and LA days.

The scenario turned out to be far worse than even detractors like myself predicted, as Embiid, George and Maxey mixed to play simply 112 video games whole and solely 15 collectively. They intelligently punted on about half of final season, relaxation their injured stars and guarded their draft decide that was owed to OKC if it fell exterior the highest six.

The Sixers head into this season with Embiid hopefully rested and wholesome following his knee procedures, though we don’t know to make sure primarily based on some current reporting. They’ve added VJ Edgecombe, an thrilling rookie guard, with the third decide (thanks, tanking!). They bring about again final 12 months’s finest rookie, Jared McCain, who noticed his season lower brief in December due to a knee problem. And although there are many causes to be ok with the Sixers at full well being, they possible gained’t even have that after we get to coaching camp and preseason.

George had surgical procedure on his left knee final month and will probably be re-evaluated earlier than coaching camp. That doesn’t imply he’ll be again. It simply means we’ll possible get an replace from the Sixers on his standing on media day. That is already troubling information for George, who has performed simply 304 video games, or a little bit greater than 50 video games per season, during the last six seasons. Possibly I’m being too reactionary, however with the Sixers, it’s higher to imagine the worst and hope for the most effective than to imagine the most effective and even simply stable information.

The Boston Celtics and the East

Concern-o-meter: 6/10

I’m not able to bury the Celtics. Don’t get me flawed: I don’t imagine they’re contenders, nor do I imagine they’ll win the East. However I nonetheless like their probabilities to complete within the prime six and keep away from the Play-In Event.

There’s no Jayson Tatum, Jrue Vacation or Kristaps Porziņģis. Luke Kornet additionally left in free company, and we anticipate Al Horford to signal elsewhere. That’s loads lacking from final season’s rotation, and you might want to make certain Derrick White and Jaylen Brown keep wholesome. With that stated, I believe folks underestimate how tough it’s to play towards this Celtics type. They usually didn’t lose lots of exterior capturing, which is the primary staple of their offensive assault. Within the three seasons underneath Joe Mazzulla, 3-point pictures have been 47.9, 47.0 and 53.5 % of their shot makes an attempt. That was the best quantity of 3-pointers within the league the previous two seasons, and it was second behind Dallas in Mazzulla’s first season. Mazzulla desires them to stand up pictures from deep.

Whereas they did lose the gamers I listed above, they managed to accumulate Anfernee Simons and Chris Boucher. Simons is a profession 38.1 % 3-point shooter. On catch-and-shoot 3-point makes an attempt, Simons is a profession 41.3 % shooter. He suits this type, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Celtics take practically 60 % of their pictures from exterior to make up for the losses.

Boucher isn’t a dependable shooter, however he’s had two above-league-average 3-point capturing seasons in his final 5. The 2020-21 season noticed Boucher shoot 38.3 % from 3-point vary and 37.8 % on catch-and-shoot makes an attempt. He was a nasty shooter the following three seasons, however final season, we noticed return to stretching the ground. He made 36.5 % of his 3s and 37.9 % on catch-and-shoot makes an attempt. Two years in the past, most of his 3-point pictures got here from right away or the proper wing, which is in that Porziņģis candy spot. Final season, we noticed Boucher go extra to the corners, the place he made 39 %.

Boston nonetheless has Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser within the rotation, and so they can actually shoot. We noticed a little bit of a method change within the postseason after Tatum went down. It was a small pattern dimension, however they appeared to rely much less on one-on-one assaults from their stars and extra on that offensive stream that makes them tough to defend most nights. Opponents coping with that type on random nights within the common season gained’t be straightforward.

They nonetheless must piece collectively an enormous man rotation with Boucher, Xavier Tillman, Neemias Queta and possibly Luka Garza, and which may not be fairly. However I wouldn’t formally relegate them to the Play-In simply but.

The LA Clippers are so outdated

Concern-o-meter: 5/10

These Clippers are so outdated. (Heard off-mic: “How outdated are they?”) They’re so outdated that many individuals are involved they gained’t be capable to deal with an 82-game season, nor the grind of the playoffs, to the extent of experiencing true postseason success. That’s not a lot a punchline as it’s a actuality of their roster age. That’s principally what I’ve heard for the reason that information that 40-year-old Chris Paul and 37-year-old Brook Lopez (and even 32-year-old Bradley Beal) joined the Clippers this summer season.

The Clippers have eight gamers on the roster born earlier than 1995. I’ll remind you that we’re in 2025. The common age of their foremost 11 guys is 33 years outdated. In keeping with Tom Haberstroh and Dan Devine, that is the oldest roster in league historical past, beating out the 2001-02 Utah Jazz, who sat at an aged common age of 32 years.

Having Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, Cameron Christie and rookie Yanic Konan Niederhauser (large identify) brings the roster age beneath that 33 common, however these guys aren’t anticipated to play a lot. Or possibly they need to be anticipated to as a result of the Clippers have so many aged guys?

I’ve issues for the Clippers extra due to damage historical past. That’s the place the concern-o-meter will get to a 5. Kawhi Leonard, Paul, Beal and loads of others have damage battles they’ve misplaced previously, however I believe the Clippers are going to be OK as a result of they’re such a deep workforce. Keep in mind that the common age above was primarily based on 11 gamers. Eleven! The Clippers have unbelievable depth to handle minutes and mitigate the grind of a protracted season.

The fun of free company

Concern-o-meter: 10/10

It’s been stated loads, however the thrill of free company within the second-apron period and past is perhaps formally gone. Possibly that is an overreaction to a relaxed summer season in 2025, however the writing is on the wall. Whether or not or not brokers determine the way to erase that writing is one other story.

The whole lot was pointing towards 2026 being an enormous summer season totally free company. A variety of groups have emphasised protecting cap flexibility and roster flexibility for subsequent June and July. That is perhaps contingent on Trae Younger, Zach LaVine and possibly even Draymond Inexperienced declining participant choices, however there are lots of different potential free-agent choices, pushing the depth of the category far past what we noticed this summer season.

Durant is perhaps a free agent if he doesn’t lock down an extension together with his new Houston Rockets workforce, though he’s anticipated to discover a cope with them. LeBron James goes to be a free agent, and the Lakers now not look like a particular finish to his profession (extra on that in a bit). There’s an honest probability Austin Reaves finally ends up being one of many largest free brokers on the market, relying on how extensions and choices go between from time to time. Cap area is extra possible for use to herald gamers with trades, and presumably draft belongings to accompany stated participant, if groups are dumping salaries to get underneath the primary or second aprons.

The commerce deadline is perhaps the brand new free company. Or possibly it has been for a very long time, and we’re simply now noticing?

LeBron James’ future

Concern-o-meter: 3/10

There’s little doubt the assertion by Klutch Sports activities CEO Wealthy Paul after information of James selecting up his $52.6 million participant choice made issues bizarre with LeBron and the Lakers, not less than on the surface trying in. I don’t assume they’ve a nasty relationship, by any means. Nevertheless, it’s apparent to see that the commerce for Luka Dončić modified the dynamics of this franchise’s current and future. So what does this imply for LeBron?

A get-together with Jokić’s agent just lately had many people buzzing about the potential for LeBron attempting to finish his profession with the present finest participant on the planet. Seems, it could have solely been about making a basketball league abroad. The tough factor about LeBron is he’s not the participant he was once — he’s nonetheless the icon/economic system he’s been for many years — however he’s additionally not some outdated chump on the ground. He was named second-team All-NBA final season on the age of 40.

James will almost certainly be a free agent subsequent summer season. He’ll have lots of locations that can wish to make use of what’s presumed to be the ultimate chapter of his historic NBA profession. The query is whether or not these pursuers will wish to pay him max cash. Does it make sense to eat one-third of your cap on a participant in his 40s? Does LeBron make all of that questioning moot? Will he wish to return to Cleveland? Will he wish to play subsequent to Steph Curry? Will one other large market workforce catch his eye? Will he merely go someplace that offers him an opportunity to win a fifth ring? And does that scenario imply he’ll must take a reduction?

This present scenario obtained a wrench thrown into it again in February with the Luka commerce, however from LeBron’s standpoint, I’m not involved about a lot of it as a result of he at all times appears to have a superb plan.

The New Orleans Pelicans

Concern-o-meter: 9/10

Is it ever decrease than a 9 out of 10 with the Pelicans and worrying? The truth that folks took notice of July 15 being the date the Pelicans needed to totally assure Zion Williamson’s contract for subsequent season reveals you the uncertainty of that whole scenario. They made some complicated trades on the draft, sending away CJ McCollum (advantageous) for Jordan Poole (head-scratching) after which gifting away an unprotected, extremely worthwhile first-round decide in 2026 to maneuver as much as thirteenth to draft Derik Queen from Maryland. Queen has already wanted surgical procedure to restore a wrist problem, and he’ll hopefully be again in October.

The Pelicans at all times have huge damage issues, Zion apart. Dejounte Murray tore his Achilles in January. Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones mixed to play 73 video games final season. There are such a lot of elements to love on this roster, however I’m unsure how they go collectively. Willie Inexperienced has been a superb coach early in his profession, but it surely’s arduous to know if he’ll proceed to have the assist from new administration (Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver) and possession.

When Zion is wholesome and performs, he’s historic. If he doesn’t play (sufficient), what is that this workforce?

Damage worries have been far too widespread for Zion Williamson and the Pelicans. (Chris Graythen / Getty Photos)

‘Contained in the NBA’ post-TNT

Concern-o-meter: 7/10

We’re coming into a really intriguing period of NBA media. TNT is out and Amazon in, and issues have dramatically shifted from a tv to a digital panorama with NBA broadcasts. Granted, NBC is coming again into the fold with its broadcasts for the primary time since 2002, however we’ll additionally see the way it makes use of its Peacock app. The largest factor folks have questioned about, although, is what occurs to the acclaimed “Contained in the NBA” present.

We all know it’s going to be licensed by ESPN, however the manufacturing is meant to stay with the Turner Sports activities crew and allegedly not have affect from ESPN. The present would be the present, however simply be broadcast by ESPN. It virtually sounds too good to be true. I’m unsure how a lot I belief that every little thing will probably be clean away from Turner.

The fantastic thing about “Contained in the NBA” is that they didn’t fear about business breaks and attending to sure segments on time. If one thing was fascinating, then they let it rock for some time. They held precise discussions as an alternative of talking in pressured 30-second soundbites. No person actually tried to be the star of the present; the present was the star.

From chatter I heard this summer season at Las Vegas Summer season League, it doesn’t sound just like the communication about what’s subsequent with the present has been nice. Granted, there’s loads of time to get that discovered, however the truth that there may be confusion in any respect with late October not that far-off is regarding. Possibly it’s finest to maintain expectations low and hope for the most effective.

The lifespan of ‘Roundball Rock’

Concern-o-meter: 1/10

This one was proposed by my editor Tyler Batiste, who watches manner an excessive amount of “Regulation & Order: Particular Victims Unit.” The notorious “Roundball Rock” track NBC has used for its NBA protection for thus lengthy has been blaring over numerous advertisements in preparation for the NBA’s return. It’s on NBC. It’s on Peacock. It’s on the USA Community. Chances are high, in case you’re watching one thing on any of these platforms, you’re listening to “Roundball Rock” loads. Is it going to develop tiresome? Will a brand new era of basketball followers/watchers prefer it? Does it nonetheless hit the identical because it at all times did?

As somebody who didn’t cease listening to that track in the course of the 23-year hiatus the NBA had from NBC, I can let you know there may be not a lot concern from me. In case you don’t just like the track, you’re flawed. This track was nonetheless a ringtone. It was a textual content tone. It was an MP3 on my iPod (sure, I’m extremely outdated). It was even burned into some combine CDs again once we had been nonetheless doing that. “Roundball Rock” gained’t get drained. It’s going to get stronger. It’s going to encourage the following wave of basketball lovers.

Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-basketball! Gimme! Gimme! Gimme the ball as a result of I’m gonna dunk it!

(High photograph of LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Stacy Revere / Getty Photos)