NBA Draft stock watch: Jared McCain, Donovan Clingan up; Reed Sheppard and others down

Properly, that was a journey.

In 16 days, I went to 31 video games in 5 totally different cities, principally specializing in the important thing faculty prospects prone to be within the upcoming draft. Whereas I didn’t get in-person eyes on everybody this yr (sorry, Baylor), I’ve now seen the overwhelming majority of the important thing gamers with my very own eyes, and most of them greater than as soon as.

There’s a lot to unpack, each actually and figuratively. I’ve notes from the Arizona–USC regular-season battle, from the ACC and SEC tournaments and from NCAA Match video games in Pittsburgh and Brooklyn. Listed here are the gamers I noticed in particular person within the final two weeks who did essentially the most to affect their draft inventory, for higher or worse:

Inventory Up

Jared McCain, 6-3 freshman SG, Duke

One of many questions I took into convention match week was about McCain’s capturing. Not whether or not he might shoot, precisely, however simply at what degree. At 6-3 and taking part in principally off the ball, the promoting level on McCain needed to be that he may very well be a CJ McCollum-type shooter to justify a top-20 spot on a draft board.

My eye check in all probability wasn’t helped by the primary time I noticed him, throughout arguably his worst sport of the season in an upset loss to Georgia Tech, the place his 3-of-10 capturing included a one-handed Steve Nash layup try that went over the backboard completely.

McCain, nevertheless, confirmed out this previous weekend, first scoring 15 factors on 9 photographs as Duke crushed Vermont within the first spherical, then including an electrical second-round efficiency towards James Madison on Sunday. McCain made his first six 3-point makes an attempt earlier than halftime and had the seventh one back-rim out. He additionally weaved in some pick-and-roll playmaking that included a flowery dime for a dunk and a driving left-handed end within the lane en path to 30 factors, 5 rebounds and nary a turnover.

McCain’s full-season numbers are actually 41.5 % from 3 and 86.8 % from the road; his 3-point quantity is on the excessive aspect (10.7 per 100 in ACC play) but in addition not epic, as he’s not a man who comes flying off pindowns and firing from no matter platform is on the market. His harm principally comes along with his toes set, the place he has a clean, repeatable and fast launch. One different small factor: Although solely 6-3, McCain had 11 rebounds over the weekend. His season rebound price of 9.4 % is fairly spectacular for a participant of his measurement.

Kyle Filipowski, 7-0 sophomore PF/C, Duke

Match questions on the subsequent degree nonetheless canine Filipowski, the place the priority is that he’s a traditional massive who isn’t fairly large enough to play heart and never fairly cell or expert sufficient to play the 4. We’ll get a greater really feel for the previous when he goes up towards Houston within the Candy 16.

Defensively, nevertheless, these worries on the perimeter could also be overdone. Filipowski confirmed himself to be a switch-capable participant towards Vermont and James Madison. He completed the weekend with 4 blocks and 4 steals, and in each video games the opposition stopped testing him and pursued different scoring routes as a substitute.

Filipowski additionally dominated the Vermont sport regardless of taking just one shot, repeatedly discovering the open man out of the moment double-teams he confronted on the block and ending with 12 rebounds and 4 assists. He began the James Madison sport the identical means, choosing out McCain for an open 3 on the primary journey to arrange his massive night time and ending with one other 4 assists. We nonetheless need to see a extra threatening perimeter sport from him — he’s at 34.6 % from the yr and simply 66.7 % from the road — however he’s, at worst, a top-20 participant on this draft.

Kyle Filipowski begins to push the ball up the court docket throughout Duke’s second-round sport towards James Madison. (Robert Deutsch / USA Right now)

Stephon Fort, 6-6 freshman SG, Connecticut

The factor that stood out about Fort was the distress he inflicted on Northwestern star guard Boo Buie within the second spherical, choosing him up full court docket, denying simple catches and chasing him round screens to contest photographs as a trailer. Sure, it helped that he had Godzilla behind him (see under), however Buie missed his first 10 photographs and completed 2 of 15 as UConn crushed the Wildcats.

Fort isn’t requested to tackle an enormous offensive function however reads the sport nicely and may be very efficient in transition; when his quantity was referred to as on a half-court pick-and-roll, he jailed the defender then dropped in a pleasant left-handed end for an and-1. On one different notable play, he turned down an entry move to massive man Donovan Clingan to attend for a reducing teammate to current himself, understanding that teammate would have a greater angle for a high-low that ultimately yielded a simple bucket for the large man.

Fort’s capturing, nevertheless, remains to be a query mark; he’s solely made 17 of his 61 3-point makes an attempt this season. He has an excessive amount of information hand on the ball on his jumper and an inclination to lean sideways as he will get into his movement. However these flaws look pretty correctable, and he doesn’t have to shoot like Kyle Korver to make an affect within the league. Total, the weekend cemented my thought that he generally is a high-ceiling NBA wing. Donovan Clingan, 7-2 sophomore C, Connecticut

“Cling Kong” blocked eight photographs on Sunday — at the least, that was the official rely — and had followers behind us guffawing when he moved his toes on the perimeter and pinned this shot by Northwestern’s Ryan Langborg towards the highest of the backboard. (Additionally, try the dime by our man Fort on the finish.)

CLINGAN BLOCK ON ONE END NEWTON ACROBATICS AT THE OTHER 🤯#MarchMadness @UConnMBB pic.twitter.com/YR1gHUv0X3

— NCAA March Insanity (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 25, 2024

In particular person, Clingan seems to be each little bit of 7-2. In his two match video games, he grabbed 22 rebounds in 47 minutes, shot 14 of 18 from the sector and even had two steals. He hasn’t made a 3 this season and is just at 55.6 % from the road, however earlier than video games, you’ll see him comfortably shoot lengthy, on-target bounce photographs.

Extra importantly, his defensive motion and end-to-end transition as soon as once more held up nicely. UConn is an unusually slow-tempo squad for such a dominant crew (simply 315th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo), however a possible Elite 8 matchup towards a quick Illinois crew could be the subsequent massive check for Clingan at this degree.

N’Faly Dante, 7-0 senior C, Oregon

Do you understand how good a season this man has had? Dante’s 30.7 PER ranked sixth amongst Energy 6 gamers, and he did that with out feasting on non-conference patsies for 10 video games like everybody else does. Each one of many 22 video games Dante performed this season was towards a Energy 6 faculty.

I watched Dante rating 23 factors on 9 photographs towards South Carolina within the first spherical in Pittsburgh; for an encore, he had 28 factors and 20 rebounds in a double-overtime loss to Creighton within the subsequent spherical. Dante additionally had 19 steals within the Geese’ final seven video games — not one thing you usually say a few 7-foot heart — and completed the yr capturing 69.5 % from the ground, together with a 12-of-12 outing towards Colorado within the must-win Pac-12 title sport to get the Geese into the match.

There are minuses right here. Dante will probably be 23 in October, has missed video games with accidents in all 5 of his faculty seasons and has little really feel for the sorts of dribble handoffs and high-post actions that NBA groups prefer to run. He will get dunks, however he’s extra of a load-up powerhouse dunker than a real “vertical spacing” rim runner, and his shot-blocking price isn’t Earth-shattering for a participant of his ilk. Nonetheless, he was a scorching prospect when he first got here to Oregon, and his closing run this season doubtless regenerated some hope for him as both a late second-rounder or a two-way.

Inventory Down

Reed Sheppard, 6-3 freshman PG/SG, Kentucky

After singing Sheppard’s praises heading into the SEC match, I watched what have been doubtless his final two video games at Kentucky, and people, that didn’t go actual nicely. Sheppard had a superb stat line in a loss to Texas A&M within the convention match (14 factors on eight photographs, 4 assists, two steals) and had a number of deflections, however at different factors his defensive shortcomings have been a bit extra obvious.

He adopted that one up with a baffling stinker within the Wildcats’ beautiful first-round loss to 14th-seeded Oakland, usually trying tentative and ending with simply two factors in 26 minutes. He additionally struggled to stick with Oakland gunner Jack Gohlke round screens, though Kentucky’s defensive strategy right here can also pretty be questioned. Sheppard will get his fingers on a ton of balls — he had two steals in every sport and a number of different deflections — however his skill to remain stable on the non-turnover performs remains to be in query.

This sport was an outlier on the low finish, clearly, and now we’re into tape season. One of many key questions to return and overview via the video is to see Sheppard in one-on-one battles and assess how nicely his toes held up, and the way a lot his lack of measurement and size may maintain him again on the subsequent degree.

On the flip aspect, Sheppard’s lack of aggression on offense wasn’t utterly out of the blue — he had remarkably few 2-point makes an attempt all season. The query on tape is how a lot wiggle can he present to interrupt defenses down as a full-time level guard on the subsequent degree, and the way a lot was simply the traditional drawback of John Calipari limiting elite guards?

Ryan Dunn, 6-8 sophomore SF/PF, Virginia

Dunn clearly could make an affect as a defender. For a non-center, his 10.4 % block price this season was absurdly good, and he’s a disruptor within the run of play with quick fingers (3.1 % steal price in a conservative scheme). His skill to protect on the subsequent degree — I imply actually guard — just isn’t in query and will see him picked within the first spherical regardless of his offensive shortcomings.

As for that offense … yeah. Dunn steadily misplaced confidence in his shot this season, first in his 3s (which he stopped taking in late December), then on the line, then in every single place else. Over the ultimate 14 video games of the season, he took 17 free throws complete and topped out at 10 factors.

You may see why he might need been shy to unleash the jumper. Dunn’s shot is a wildly spinning moonball that sometimes splashes on course and typically lands … different locations.

On the yr, he shot 53.2 % from the road, with the above miss towards Colorado State fortunately coming lengthy after most of America had modified channels. Enjoying in Virginia’s archaic movers-and-blockers system doesn’t assist; he has appeared threatening when he’s had possibilities to rim run however not anyplace else, and at 6-8, it’s onerous to examine him as an NBA heart. You may speak your self into Herb Jones-type upside outcomes if the shot will be fastened, however what if it may possibly’t be?

D.J. Wagner, 6-3 freshman PG, Kentucky

So, how a lot is the “Calipari tax” value to you? We’ve seen the coach make many proficient guards look peculiar, so perhaps that must be priced right into a Wagner analysis. Nonetheless, he completed a really uninspiring freshman yr with an 0-of-5 bagel within the upset loss to Oakland, finishing the season with 47.2/29.2/76.6 capturing splits on 2s/3s/FTs. For a 6-3 guard, he additionally had a miniscule 3.9 % rebound price and few disruptive performs. There aren’t actually any moments that make you rewind the tape and go, “Who was that?”

Wagner had some candy left-handed finishes in case you dig via the tape onerous sufficient, and a kernel of thought emerged that perhaps he was approaching when he put collectively three straight double-figure video games on the finish of the SEC season. However after watching him ship 29 forgettable minutes towards Texas A&M within the SEC match after which the Oakland sport, it’s simply onerous to see a draftable participant right here.

Trey Alexander, 6-4 junior PG, Creighton

I watched Alexander in Creighton’s first-round win over Akron, and he was … effective? I assume? However effective doesn’t actually do it if you’re a junior attempting to get into the primary spherical of the draft. I used to be bullish on Alexander as a top-22 man a yr in the past, earlier than he finally pulled out of the draft, and I feel I would have to sluggish my roll and put him within the second spherical this time round.

Having an on-ball guard at 6-4 is an effective place to begin, and Alexander may be very snug stepping into pull-up jumpers going to both hand. He likes to snake pick-and-rolls and jail the defender earlier than sidestepping right into a jumper, however that must be a secondary objective, not the primary occasion — he doesn’t generate many free throws or get to the rim a lot.

As a deep shooter, he’s simply OK, capturing 35.4 % for his profession from 3. Possibly I’m seeing him on the incorrect days, however he positive appears to overlook to the perimeters unusually usually, even on catch-and-shoots, and may have to hone his mechanics a little bit additional to get himself squared up constantly.

The most important motive to maneuver him down, although, is that he simply isn’t a complete lot higher than the man I noticed a yr in the past, however he’s a yr older. There’s nonetheless a pathway to success as a dribble-pass-shoot combo guard menace right here, however we have to see extra progress.

Trey Alexander launches a 3 towards Oregon over the weekend. (Gregory Fisher / USA Right now)

Combined baggage

Rob Dillingham, 6-2 freshman PG, Kentucky

I haven’t written a ton about Dillingham but, partly as a result of I’m nonetheless making up my thoughts on how I really feel about him. Like Sheppard, he additionally was weirdly dangerous and tentative within the Oakland sport, failing to make a 2-point basket in his 28 minutes and capturing 2 of 9 general. However, he had 27 factors and 7 dimes within the loss to Texas A&M.

Nonetheless, as with Sheppard, Dillingham is graded extra harshly as a result of he’s projected as a top-10 (or higher) choose proper now. He has apparent questions on his defensive worth given his slight construct with Trae Younger-ish dimensions and the very fact he wasn’t precisely a tiger at this finish whereas at Kentucky.

Even towards Oakland, nevertheless, there have been moments that remined you of his offensive ceiling. As an illustration, that Justin Edwards 3 within the clip slightly below got here off a sudden rifle of a one-handed move crosscourt. Dillingham additionally has blow-by quickness that ought to grow to be much more helpful on the NBA degree and likewise can get into his shot shortly and precisely when wanted, hitting 44.4 % from 3 on the season.

ROB DILLINGHAM OH MY 😱#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/26YoUnh17y

— NCAA March Insanity (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 22, 2024

I nonetheless need to return via the tape on Dillingham since I used to be consistently watching different guys on the identical time — one difficulty with a crew like Kentucky, the place all people is a prospect, is that you simply really feel like it’s important to watch every of their video games seven occasions — however my preliminary takeaway is that I don’t assume these final two video games did any lasting harm to his draft inventory.

Justin Edwards, 6-8 freshman SF, Kentucky

The headline is that Edwards obtained rim-checked on a wide-open dunk through the Wildcats’ loss to Oakland. The cringe miss was worse due to the bodily inform it contained: He wanted to cease and collect off two toes moderately than simply fluidly energy up off his proper leg whereas on the transfer.

Nonetheless, Edwards additionally scored 10 factors in solely quarter-hour towards Oakland, together with a clean hit on a contested nook 3 (see under). He struggled within the Texas A&M sport within the SEC Match, however general, he was the Kentucky participant who in all probability did the least to harm his inventory within the two video games.

Justin Edwards from 3️⃣!#MarchMadness @KentuckyMBB pic.twitter.com/NIqo9IRCsJ

— NCAA March Insanity (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 22, 2024

Watching Edwards shoot earlier than each contests, he’s not a 50 % shooter like he shot in SEC video games this season, however he appeared plausible as a 36.5 % 3-point shooter — his general share on the season. If that is roughly Edwards’ true talent degree, as a 20-year-old 6-8 ahead, that’s a platform for a helpful participant. The pendulum has swung wildly this season, with him being seen by some as a possible prime choose candidate earlier than the season, however it could have really swung too far by now. Sure, Edwards was clearly wildly overhyped getting into the season, however there’s one thing right here.

Isaiah Collier, 6-5 freshman SG, USC

I noticed Collier late within the yr and wrote about him right here (fourth merchandise), so I don’t need to double down and repeat myself an excessive amount of. Nonetheless, I’ll level out that his Pac-12 Match — seen in particular person by many scouts attempting to one-stop store three convention tourneys in Las Vegas — supplied a equally blended bag, maybe on the decrease finish of the spectrum really.

Collier nonetheless obtained downhill to the tune of 26 factors in two video games but in addition continued to battle turnovers, ending with 9 miscues and 10 assists in Vegas. I doubt something that occurred there was sufficient to vary any minds, however he needs to be grateful the primary sport was at midday on a Wednesday on the Pac-12 Community.

Cameron Matthews, 6-7 senior SF, Mississippi State

I wrote right here about Matthews’ implausible SEC Match sport towards Tennessee and gained’t go too lengthy on this house, however his first-round NCAA sport towards Michigan State produced a comparatively typical Matthews output of a stuffed stat sheet (4 steals, two blocks, 5 boards, two assists) however simply eight factors and 0 3-point photographs.

Matthews has the scale and athleticism to test NBA forwards and a ok really feel to function as a secondary choice. Nonetheless, he solely made two 3s all season, shot 55 % from the road and can flip 23 in December. That makes him a mission for the late second spherical or a two-way; he additionally has one other yr of eligibility and will return to Starkville or hit the portal.

Hunter Sallis, 6-5 junior SG, Wake Forest

How a lot do you imagine within the capturing? Sallis has first rate measurement, although he’s a bit on the wiry aspect, and is a stable athlete with a knack for shock dunks on half-court drives. He’s not some extent guard, however as a two, he doesn’t betray any overtly tragic weaknesses.

The massive story for him is that he went from capturing 25.6 % on 3s at Gonzaga to 40.6 % at Wake Forest, whereas greater than doubling the per-possession quantity. Sallis’ shot nonetheless doesn’t look pure; he will get his information hand concerned, and that can knock the spin off a quarter-turn typically, and the one time he tried reloading after a fly-by was not clean, simple or efficient.

Maybe the free-throw line tells the extra plausible story: He went from 78.0 % to. 78.3 %. I’m unsure why he couldn’t make a 3 at Gonzaga, however the fact on Sallis is clearly between the 2 extremes offered by his final two seasons. As with Alexander above — an identical archetype however one who gives extra ballhandling on the expense of much less measurement — that résumé makes Sallis draftable however in all probability a attain within the first spherical.