NBA teams who'll beat expectations this season. Plus, contract year watch + WNBA playoffs

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I noticed the film “Megalopolis” so that you don’t need to. I can’t stress sufficient that it’s worse than you’ve been advised.

Take the Over! Groups who ought to exceed expectations

It’s about that point, Bouncers! We’re lower than three weeks away from the beginning of the 2024-25 NBA season. You realize what meaning, proper? No, I’m not main you towards a Ben Simmons dialogue (extra on him later). And I don’t wish to speak second aprons, for at the least three months. I’m speaking about over/unders!

Our buddy John Hollinger went to the lab to provide you 5 groups he believes will exceed their BetMGM win totals for this season. Granted, he went 1-for-5 final season with this, however that was just a few unhealthy luck! (It’s onerous.) For this season, I agree with three of his picks, and I’ve received a handful of groups of my very own to consider in (or not):

Agree with Hollinger — take the over!

Suns | 46.5 wins: The Mike Budenholzer impact! Bear in mind, regular-season bets don’t have anything to do together with his struggles within the postseason. He’s a superb regular-season coach, and the Suns lastly have level guards. That is a straightforward over.
Thunder | 56.5 wins: Until half of this roster decides to return to highschool as a result of they nonetheless have eligibility, I can’t see the Thunder successful fewer than 60 video games. They received 57 video games final 12 months and added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason.
Pistons | 24.5 wins: Monty Williams was simply so unhealthy as a coach final season. J.B. Bickerstaff is an excellent coach, and there’s simply no means the Pistons may be as terrible as they have been final 12 months. A 25-win workforce isn’t good, however that is at the least a 25-win workforce.

5 groups I’ve an eye fixed on

Grizzlies | 47.5 wins: I don’t know! I felt nice concerning the over on this one earlier than yesterday’s information of a Jaren Jackson Jr. hamstring pressure. We don’t know the extent but, so I’d keep away from this utterly for now.
Wizards | 20.5 wins: Beneath! Until Jordan Poole matured immensely, I can’t take a look at this roster and suppose there are even 20 wins coming. I don’t suppose Malcolm Brogdon can be out there sufficient to make up for Tyus Jones’ departure.
Spurs | 36.5 wins: Over! Chris Paul virtually all the time has a significant affect in his first 12 months with a workforce. Certain, it’s not the identical CP3 at 39, nevertheless it’s additionally not the identical Victor Wembanyama. It is a 40-win squad.
Warriors | 43.5 wins: Over! Granted, I’m banking on Draymond Inexperienced not getting suspended a bunch, however this can be a 45-win workforce — or higher.
Celtics | 58.5 wins: Over! I don’t care concerning the Kristaps Porziņģis harm. With out every other huge accidents, the defending champs ought to simply clear 60 wins.

The Newest From Shams: Extra particulars on Wolves-Knicks deal

The commerce between the Timberwolves and Knicks involving former All-Stars Karl-Anthony Cities and Julius Randle is sort of official, and we’ve realized extra particulars concerning the blockbuster transfer.

The Hornets are concerned because the third workforce and are receiving three second-round picks (two by way of the Knicks and one by way of Minnesota), together with DaQuan Jeffries, Charlie Brown and Duane Washington Jr., to finish the commerce, league sources inform Jon Krawczynski, Fred Katz and me.

Charlotte can be buying and selling James Nnaji, the No. 31 choose within the 2023 NBA Draft, to New York to finalize the deal, based on these sources.

Wendell Cruz / Imagn Photos

Greatest Habits: Keep watch over these gamers in contract years

Talking of betting: Guess on your self! That’s the phrase everyone likes to overuse when a participant tries to show their worth on the court docket earlier than free company. And you may typically get some nice seasons of basketball from these gamers.

Going into this season, there are 15 notable gamers who will or could possibly be free brokers in summer season 2025. (Minus LeBron, as a result of c’mon, he’s not leaving his child.) There are participant choices to resolve! There are extensions that may be signed! Or they will wager on themselves and take it to free company. Let’s break it down:

Outright free brokers 🤑

Ben Simmons, Nets: After this season, he could have remodeled $200 million in his profession. So he’s not hurting for cash (I don’t suppose). If the 28-year-old desires any type of good payday on a short-term deal subsequent summer season, he has to really play — after which play nicely.
Brandon Ingram, Pelicans: Is he going to get traded or journey out the 12 months with the Pels? He’s their second-best participant, nevertheless it’s getting type of crowded on the perimeter. Most of all, the 27-year-old must be wholesome.
Brook Lopez, Bucks: The 36-year-old big can nonetheless command a wholesome wage, and his again seems to be superb. He could possibly be in excessive demand if the Bucks don’t throw him an extension.
Myles Turner, Pacers: The workforce is painted right into a nook, and so they have to provide Turner, 28, a monster payday to maintain him. He has an opportunity to be one of many high free brokers if he performs nice.
Bruce Brown Jr., Raptors: Undecided he’ll command $20 million-plus yearly in his subsequent deal, however the 28-year-old might get traded and have one other huge affect on successful.

Has a participant possibility and may choose it up 👍

Jimmy Butler, Warmth | $52.4M possibility: No hair shenanigans on media day, sadly. Nonetheless, the 35-year-old can be silly to say no $50 million subsequent season. He’s in search of yet another payday.
Julius Randle, Timberwolves | $30.9M possibility: Tobias Harris simply received $52 million over two years, however I nonetheless suppose Randle, 29, ought to choose up his possibility it doesn’t matter what.
Khris Middleton, Bucks | $34M possibility: The 33-year-old is already coping with accidents heading into this season. File the paperwork now.

Has a participant possibility and may decline 👎

Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves | $46.7M possibility: Karl-Anthony Cities is gone. The Wolves have dedicated to Gobert as their huge man. The 32-year-old ought to decline and get a brand new four-year deal.
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks | $44M possibility: If he has one other season like final 12 months, the Mavs can’t afford to let him stroll. Irving, 32, can get one other monster deal.
James Harden, Clippers | $36.3M possibility: Paul George is gone. Kawhi Leonard is harm. At 35, James desires to be Houston Harden once more. Make the Clippers pay you.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets | $22.8M possibility: As soon as KCP left, the Nuggets couldn’t afford to lose Gordon. The 29-year-old can get $35 million-plus yearly.
Naz Reid, Timberwolves | $15M possibility: Cities is gone. They received’t signal Randle long-term. Reid, 25, can ball out like final 12 months and get a straightforward 9 figures subsequent summer season.
Dorian Finney-Smith, Nets | $15.4M possibility: At 31, simply get out of Brooklyn and go receives a commission as a 3-and-D wing.

Group possibility that shouldn’t get picked up ⛔

Wendell Cruz / Imagn Photos

WNBA Playoffs: Liberty on tempo for a coronation

Don’t look now, however we’re one step nearer to seeing a brand new champion within the WNBA. After final evening’s motion, we’ve received some stars on the ropes and an actual battle between Connecticut and Minnesota. Let’s dive into the New York Liberty’s win over the defending back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces, and what’s occurring between the Solar and the Lynx. (Reminder! This spherical options best-of-five collection.)

Liberty 88, Aces 84 | Liberty lead collection 2-0: We didn’t see some heroic effort by Breanna Stewart on this one, however the Liberty dominated the paint for a lot of the sport and survived a flurry of possibilities for the Aces to tie the collection up earlier than heading again to Sin Metropolis. Sabrina Ionescu was unbelievable, main the best way with 24 factors, 9 rebounds and 5 assists. She had 11 of these 24 factors within the fourth quarter, and the Aces did little or no to assist A’ja Wilson (24 factors, seven rebounds, 4 assists).

The Liberty have made the WNBA Finals 5 occasions of their historical past and by no means received a title. They’re 4 wins away from lastly pulling it off, however they need to put the champs away on the highway. They will achieve this by persevering with to get into the paint on offense.

Lynx 77, Solar 70 | Collection tied at 1-1: Likewise, no large numbers for Napheesa Collier on this one. She solely had 9 factors on 14 pictures, however did present up with 12 boards, 5 assists and 4 blocks. The Lynx have been sloppy with the ball, turning it over 15 occasions. They survived an unsightly 12-10 first quarter. However Minnesota managed your entire sport to keep away from an 0-2 gap going to Connecticut. Courtney Williams took over within the second half to steer the workforce with 17 factors on the evening. And the Lynx survived a late push from the Solar. Connecticut did what they got here to do — get a cut up. Now Minnesota has to take again dwelling court docket.

Recreation 3 for each collection is Friday night (watch on ESPN2 and stream on Fubo.)