Of the 4 main American sports activities leagues, the NFL is mostly celebrated for having essentially the most turnover among the many profitable groups. Due to this phenomenon, each fan can go into the season with some hope that their crew can win all of it. That is even true for the groups in final place a yr in the past.
For the reason that NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002, 25 groups have gone from worst to first of their division in a single season. There have been no such groups in 2024, however the 2023 Texans are a latest instance. They improved from a 3-13-1 document in 2022 to 10-7 and an AFC South title.
There are clear indicators that assist information us as to which groups are almost certainly to go from worst to first. However do not forget that typically groups can take a large step ahead with out assembly that standards. The Commanders did not go from worst to first final season, as they completed behind the Eagles within the NFC East, however definitely no one anticipated rookie Jayden Daniels to cause them to a 12-5 document.
Let’s undergo the eight groups that completed in final place of every division in 2024, rating them by their odds of successful their divisions within the 2025 season. These odds are from the preliminary simulation with ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI), which is based on win totals from the betting market along side every crew’s schedule. I am going to rank them so as, beginning with a crew that pulled off the other feat (first to worst of their division) over the previous two seasons.
Leap to a crew:CHI | CLE | LV | NENO | NYG | SF | TEN
2024 document: 6-11
Odds of successful division: 35.8% (1st in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 62.4% (third in NFC)
The 49ers have by far the perfect odds to go from worst to first for 3 important causes: schedule, well being and the very fact they weren’t actually that unhealthy final season.
San Francisco completed the 2024 season ranked ninth in FPI. DVOA (defense-adjusted worth over common) scores at FTN did not have the 49ers fairly that top, however they have been nonetheless 14th regardless of a dropping document. Their DVOA of 6.7% was simply the perfect ever by an 11-loss crew, going all the best way again to 1978.
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The 49ers will return a ton of key gamers from accidents this season, together with operating again Christian McCaffrey, large receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left sort out Trent Williams. Whereas the Lions’ protection dominated headlines due to its accidents in 2024, the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted video games misplaced to harm. That is a transparent indicator for enchancment in 2025.
Lastly, the 49ers have the simplest projected schedule within the league, which is why FPI favors them to win the NFC West over the Rams, who’re rated larger total. The NFC South and AFC South make for a simple schedule exterior of their division video games, whereas the 49ers additionally get to play the Giants, Browns and Bears. The Rams have a a lot more durable slate with matchups in opposition to the Eagles, Ravens and Lions.
2024 document: 5-12
Odds of successful division: 14.9% (4th in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 36.1% (tenth in NFC)
The Bears completed twenty second in FPI final season, however they’re seen as above-average getting into the 2025 season. That is as a result of Caleb Williams ought to enhance in his second yr beneath heart, and the Bears added lots of expertise on the offensive line to offer him higher safety.
There’s additionally lots of optimism about new coach Ben Johnson, nevertheless it’s essential to do not forget that groups with new coaches and coordinators are likely to take a small step again within the first season. We could not discover this as a result of new teaching staffs are often introduced in after notably unhealthy seasons, making a slight enchancment a easy regression towards the imply.
The largest problem holding the Bears again this season is that they’ve the second-hardest schedule within the NFL, per my DVOA rankings (extra on the toughest schedule later). All three different NFC North groups (Vikings, Lions and Packers) made the postseason in 2024, and solely Minnesota is anticipated to say no in 2025.
Outdoors of their divisional play, the Bears must face the AFC North and NFC East. In addition they should go on the highway to San Francisco and Las Vegas — each groups are on this checklist, however they need to be a lot better this season.
2024 document: 4-13
Odds of successful division: 14.0% (third in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 33.9% (twelfth in AFC)
ESPN’s stats imagine in Drake Maye. He completed seventeenth amongst qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR makes an attempt to separate the quarterback from his environment. The environment are speculated to be higher this season, however how a lot better are they?
There are lots of new faces in New England, which begins with an enchancment at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie talent gamers (operating again TreVeyon Henderson and large receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions embody edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There’s additionally a brand new No. 1 large receiver, Stefon Diggs, as quickly as he is totally recovered from final yr’s ACL tear.
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With all this added expertise, plus easy regression to the imply, the Patriots are virtually assured to be higher than a yr in the past. In addition they have a simple schedule that ranks twenty eighth primarily based on common projected DVOA of their opponents.
The issue is not the brand new faces, however the previous faces. Particularly, the previous faces nonetheless carrying Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Payments have the perfect probability to win their division of any NFL crew (65%), making it more likely that the Patriots are taking pictures for a wild-card bid.
2024 document: 5-12
Odds of successful division: 11.6% (4th in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 18.4% (fifteenth in NFC)
The Saints are useless final in FPI for 2025, however they’ve a greater probability to win their division than different groups on this checklist as a result of the NFC South is so weak. At the moment, the Buccaneers rank 14th, the Falcons twenty sixth and the Panthers twenty eighth in FPI.
The rationale New Orleans is projected on the backside is partially due to rookie QB Tyler Shough, who may begin after Derek Carr’s retirement. Regardless of Jayden Daniels’ historic 2024 season, rookie quarterbacks are nonetheless thought of as detrimental in FPI. You may’t anticipate rookie QBs to have robust seasons, particularly in the event that they’re true second-round picks like Shough.
Whereas the Saints’ offensive projection is thirty first in FPI, their defensive projection is thirty second. The unit is anticipated to be pretty previous, together with security Tyrann Mathieu (33), linebacker Demario Davis (36) and defensive finish Cameron Jordan (turning 36 in July).
2024 document: 3-14
Odds of successful division: 8.9% (4th in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 14.8% (14th in AFC)
Once more, I need to repeat what I wrote concerning the Saints: You may’t anticipate rookie QBs to have good seasons. Sure, that is even true for first total picks like Cameron Ward. In spite of everything, Chicago’s Williams completed twenty eighth out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR final season.
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Then once more, Will Levis was useless final out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR final season. So, even a below-average season for Ward will seemingly be an enchancment for Tennessee.
Like New Orleans, the Titans have larger points on the opposite facet of the ball — their protection initiatives at thirtieth in DVOA. There’s lots of hope right here round veteran cornerback L’Jarius Sneed bouncing again from harm or a giant season from unheralded additions equivalent to edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones. However the Titans actually did not achieve a lot defensive expertise this offseason and have not drafted many contributors lately. They have not used a first-round decide on a defensive participant since Jeffery Simmons in 2019.
2024 document: 4-13
Odds of successful division: 7.1% (4th in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 23.9% (thirteenth in AFC)
Look, the Payments and Ravens have had a horrible time making an attempt to get previous Patrick Mahomes within the playoffs over the previous couple of seasons. You anticipate the Raiders to get previous him within the common season?
The thought of the Raiders ending first appears even much less seemingly after we think about the Broncos and Chargers have been each playoff groups a yr in the past. Los Angeles or Denver have a a lot better probability of main the NFC West if Kansas Metropolis fell off resulting from harm or different causes.
Nonetheless, the concept of Las Vegas as a playoff contender will not be essentially ridiculous, notably due to the addition of veteran QB Geno Smith. Though Las Vegas ranks at sixth right here in total division odds, it’s fourth in playoff odds out of all eight groups.
2024 document: 3-14
Odds of successful division: 3.3% (4th in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 10.1% (sixteenth in NFC)
It is slightly stunning that FPI would not have the Giants decrease, as they’re presently twenty seventh within the NFL after being thirty first earlier than the 2024 season. However their QB room — with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart — must be an enchancment over the choices that they had final season. I additionally anticipate them to have a greater protection, which had a really poor turnover price final season and provides edge rusher Abdul Carter to an thrilling go rush.
The issue for New York is the schedule, rated because the hardest within the NFL primarily based on each FPI and projected DVOA. That begins with the video games in their very own division, which now has a robust Commanders crew, together with video games in opposition to the NFC North and AFC West. Plus, the Giants play the 49ers and Patriots, who’re each talked about above as groups that must be higher in 2025.
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2024 document: 3-14
Odds of successful division: 2.7% (4th in division)Odds of constructing playoffs: 9.8% (sixteenth in AFC)
Hey, this is FPI’s present favourite to return house with the No. 1 decide within the 2026 NFL draft. That type of projection is sensible, because the Browns have a tricky schedule and a messy quarterback room. It is onerous to think about that both of their rookies, Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders, is not beginning for this crew over Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett by midseason. This yr goes to be extra about seeing what the Browns have for the long run, slightly than making an attempt to make the playoffs within the current.
The one vibrant level for the Browns is their protection, which might be going to be higher than it was a yr in the past. They fell from second in defensive DVOA in 2023 to twenty fifth a yr in the past, and that type of drop is sort of all the time adopted by a rebound. Myles Garrett remains to be there, in any case.
