Irrespective of how controversial—or flat-out mistaken—the officiating was on the finish of the Detroit Lions’ Saturday evening conflict with the Dallas Cowboys, the result’s the outcome. The Lions misplaced the sport and dropped to 11-5 on the season.
With the loss, the Lions’ shot on the No. 1 general seed is a reasonably large longshot, and even incomes the second seed feels extraordinarily unlikely. Let’s go over all of it by trying on the up to date NFC playoff image after Saturday’s outcomes.
NFC playoff image
Division leaders:
49ers: 11-4
Eagles: 11-4
Lions: 11-5
Buccaneers: 8-7
Wild Card race (high three advance):
5. Cowboys: 11-56. Rams: 8-77. Seahawks: 8-78. Vikings: 7-89. Falcons: 7-810. Packers: 7-811. Saints: 7-8
Technically, any of the highest three seeds are nonetheless eligible for the Lions. All that issues are the ultimate outcomes from three groups: the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys. As a reminder, listed here are the remaining video games for every of these groups.
49ers:
@ Commanders (4-11)
vs. Rams (8-7)
Eagles:
vs. Cardinals (3-12)
@ Giants (5-10)
Cowboys:
The issue for Detroit is that they’re at present in a spot the place they don’t have the tiebreaker over any of those three groups.
Tiebreakers:
vs. 49ers: San Francisco has a greater convention document and might’t be caught (9-1 vs. 7-4)
vs. Cowboys: Dallas has head-to-head tiebreaker and might’t be caught
The Eagles tiebreaker is a bit more sophisticated. Proper now, they’ve the sting convention document (7-4 vs. 7-3), however that might clearly change. The subsequent related tiebreaker is frequent video games, which additionally at present favors Philly (4-2 vs. 3-2) however may change. These frequent video games are Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Seahawks. The Lions can tie up this tiebreaker with a win over the Vikings.
The issue is even when the Lions try this, the Eagles at present maintain the following tiebreaker, which is power of victory (the profitable proportion of the opponents every staff beat). The Eagles’ power of victory is .482, whereas the Lions’ is at .436. Theoretically, this tiebreaker may change if a bunch of groups the Lions beat (however the Eagles didn’t) win over the past two weeks, nevertheless it’s not very seemingly.
So with no tiebreakers in hand, the Lions are in a reasonably perilous spot to climb out of the three seed. Let’s take a look at what has to occur for the Lions to get all the remaining seeds.
Methods to get the No. 1 general seed
Merely put, the Lions might want to end with a greater document than all three groups, until they’ll one way or the other flip that Eagles tiebreaker. So right here’s what must occur:
Lions beat Vikings
49ers lose to Commanders AND Rams
Cowboys lose to Commanders
Eagles lose to Cardinals or Giants… in all probability need to lose each
Methods to get the No. 2 general seed
There are a few other ways this could occur. The “best” is that the NFC East groups lose out:
Lions beat Vikings
Cowboys lose to Commanders
Eagles lose to Cardinals AND Giants
If that’s the case, each the Eagles and Cowboys end 11-6 to the Lions’ 12-5.
Nonetheless, the Lions may additionally bounce into the two spot if the 49ers simply faceplant to finish the season.
Lions beat Vikings
49ers lose to Commanders and Rams
On this scenario, the 49ers drop to 11-6 and the Lions bounce them at 12-5. It doesn’t matter what the Eagles or Cowboys do, because the Lions could be the No. 2 seed at worst.
If the 49ers and Eagles win this Sunday, the one manner the Lions can climb out of the three seed is that if each the Eagles and Cowboys lose subsequent week and Detroit one way or the other pulls forward within the power of victory tiebreaker over Philly.
Briefly, you’re a Commanders fan now.
