Its an Orange Out Saturday in Champaign when the No. 17 Preventing Illini of Illinois (5-1) take the sector at Memorial Stadium towards the highest workforce within the nation, the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0).
Is that this a lure sport for the Buckeyes? May effectively be, however it’s going to imply the Ohio State protection doesn’t make the journey. By 5 video games, Ryan Day’s protection has allowed a grand complete of 25 factors. They’ve but to permit a pink zone landing. Heck, solely Ohio College has scored a landing towards them. It’s going to additionally imply Julain Sayin struggles for the primary time this season. The latter is way extra doable than the previous, however as a result of the previous is so stout, it gives the latter with a bit of grace. In different phrases, Illinois could win, however it’s unlikely to be as a result of Ohio State fails to point out up on both aspect of the ball.
The Illini have been waxed three weeks in the past by Indiana, 63-10 however have rebounded since with wins over USC (34-32) and Purdue (43-27). Luke Altmeyer has been particular this season pushing the ball downfield and finishing 74% of his passes and apart from that sport towards the Hoosiers, Bret Bielema’s workforce reveals up on gameday and competes. Washington stored it a one rating sport going into the fourth quarter towards Ohio State and if Illinois can do the identical, possibly the house crowd will help drive a late mistake by the Buckeyes and…
Sufficient supposition. Lets dive into every faculty and their numbers on either side of the ball. Maybe we’ll discover a sweat or two alongside the best way.
Sport Particulars and Methods to watch No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois
Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025Time: 12:00PM EasternSite: Memorial StadiumCity: Champaign, ILTV/Streaming: Fox
Sport Odds for No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois
The newest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Illinois Preventing Illini (+470), Ohio State Buckeyes (-650)Unfold: Ohio State -14.5 (-105)Whole: 49.5 factors
Be sure you try DraftKings for all the newest sport odds & participant props for each matchup this week on the faculty soccer schedule!
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Ohio State Buckeyes
Head Coach: Ryan Day2025 Report: 5-0Offense Rating: 9Defense Rating: 1Strength of Schedule: 34
The 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes boast the nation’s most full statistical profile, rating No. 2 total in SP+ with the No. 9 offense and No. 1 protection. Offensively, the Buckeyes lead the nation in passing success price (63.2%) and adjusted completion price (86.1%), with High 10 marks in yards per play (7.45), EPA/play (0.32), and yards per dropback (9.8), regardless of working on the one hundred and thirty fifth slowest tempo within the nation (31.6 seconds per play). Defensively, they’re stifling opponents holding them to only 3.84 yards per play (No. 3), 0.48 factors per drive (No. 1), and a 20.0% third-down success price (No. 2), whereas permitting a national-best 0.0% landing price on goal-to-go and red-zone drives. Ohio State’s projected scoring margin of +26.0 (4th nationally) and 73.4% CFP chance mirror their dominant trajectory underneath Ryan Day, organising a possible showdown with Michigan to determine the East.
The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense
The 2025 Ohio State offense is ruthlessly environment friendly, rating No. 1 within the nation in passing success price (63.2%) and adjusted completion price (86.1%) whereas additionally inserting High 10 in yards per play (7.45), EPA/play (0.32), and yards per dropback (9.8). Quarterback play has been surgical, with a 79.4% uncooked completion price and simply 22.9% of dropbacks leading to zero or adverse yardage, whereas the offensive line has surrendered stress on just one.0% of dropbacks (4th nationally). Regardless of working on the slowest tempo amongst Energy 4 packages (31.6 seconds/play, one hundred and thirty fifth), the Buckeyes rating 3.53 factors per drive (twelfth) and convert 54.2% of third downs (twelfth). Although not reliant on explosive performs (sixty fourth in 20+ yard play price), they persistently dominate with superior effectivity, area place, and elite execution in normal and passing downs.
Ohio State Participant to Watch on Offense: QB Julian Sayin
The freshman quarterback has stepped in because the starter for Ohio State and delivered spectacular early outcomes, finishing 80.2% of his passes for 1,313 yards and a 13-to-3 TD-INT ratio by 5 begins. He’s been remarkably environment friendly, posting 11.3 adjusted internet yards per try (ANY/A) and a stellar 85.8 Whole QBR, whereas averaging 13.0 yards per completion. Sayin has additionally protected the ball effectively and dealt with stress adeptly, taking sacks on simply 1.6% of dropbacks and solely 7.7% of pressures. His dashing contributions have been minimal—simply 10 carries for 19 yards, with a low 10% success price and minimal yards after contact—indicating his worth lies nearly solely in his precision passing and pocket poise.
The Ohio State Buckeyes Protection
Ohio State’s 2025 protection is arguably probably the most dominant within the nation, rating No. 1 in Defensive SP+, EPA/play allowed (-0.26), and factors per drive allowed (0.48). The Buckeyes suffocate opposing offenses, rating third in yards per play allowed (3.84) and tenth in success price allowed (33.1%), whereas additionally producing elite outcomes on third downs (20.0% conversion price, 2nd nationally) and within the pink zone (0.0% TD price allowed in each pink zone and goal-to-go conditions). Their cross rush ranks eighth in sack price (9.3%) and so they generate stress with out committing extra sources, blitzing simply 17.1% of the time (123rd) and holding QBs to only 4.0 yards per dropback (fifth). Regardless of modest havoc charges from the secondary (a hundred and twentieth in DB havoc), the protection excels throughout all ranges with an elite entrance, environment friendly tackling (89.1% success price), and a scheme that has yielded only one complete landing throughout their first 5 video games.
Ohio State Participant to Watch on Protection: S Caleb Downs
The sophomore security is the center and soul of Ohio State’s secondary, registering 19 tackles (11 solo) over 5 video games with an 82.6% sort out price and a 68.4% share of his tackles coming towards the run. He’s contributed 3 havoc performs, together with 2 tackles for loss and an interception, whereas including 3 run stops in help. In protection, Downs has been focused simply 5 occasions on 107 protection snaps and allowed solely 2 completions for a complete of two yards, leading to a minuscule 0.02 yards per protection snap and an elite defensive QBR of simply 3.4. His lockdown protection and reliability towards the run have made Downs one of the full and impactful defenders within the nation.
Illinois Preventing Illini
Head Coach: Bret Bielema2025 Report: 5-1Offense Rating: 18Defense Rating: 51Strength of Schedule: 29
Illinois has emerged as a well-rounded workforce underneath Bret Bielema, rating twenty ninth total SP+ with a High 20 offense (18th) and one of many nation’s finest particular groups items (sixth). The Illini offense thrives by elite effectivity and passing explosiveness, rating sixth in adjusted internet yards per try (13.0) and twelfth in EPA/dropback (0.41)—fueled by a 73.9% completion price (4th nationally) and an adjusted completion price of 78.4% (ninth). Defensively, Illinois has been inconsistent; failing to generate havoc on the linebacker stage whereas their secondary struggles mightily in protection—rating 122nd in passing success price allowed and 129th in normal downs run price allowed. Regardless of a brutal 63-10 loss at Indiana, Illinois rebounded with a press release win over USC and initiatives to complete with 9+ wins
The Illinois Preventing Illini Offense
Illinois’ offense ranks 18th nationally in SP+ and operates with distinctive steadiness, rating twenty fourth in factors per drive (3.16), twenty second in EPA/play (0.24), and thirty first in yards per play (6.54). The passing sport is the clear engine of the unit, rating sixth in adjusted internet yards per try (13.0), 4th in completion price (73.9%), and twelfth in EPA/dropback (0.41), whereas additionally boasting a High 10 adjusted completion proportion (78.4%). Although the run sport ranks simply 84th in yards per carry (4.7), the Illini convert 83.3% of their fourth downs (sixth nationally) and possess one of many lowest turnover totals within the nation (3 complete). Offensive line safety has been elite, rating eleventh in stress price allowed (1.3%) and thirtieth in complete blown block proportion (15.6%), giving the Illini a high-efficiency identification regardless of a sluggish tempo (122nd in seconds per play).
Illinois Participant to Watch on Offense: QB Luke Altmyer
The upperclassman has been a dependable and explosive passer by six begins, finishing 73.6% of his throws for 1,573 yards and a pristine 12:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He ranks close to the highest nationally in key metrics like yards per completion (14.4), adjusted internet yards per try (12.0), and Whole QBR (86.8), showcasing his potential to generate massive performs whereas avoiding errors. Regardless of working behind a leaky offensive line that has allowed an 11.4% sack price and a 38.0% pressure-to-sack conversion, Altmyer has maintained composure and produced a powerful 8.4 yards per dropback. On the bottom, he’s added 109 dashing yards and a couple of touchdowns with a 50% dashing success price, although over half of his carries have been stopped at or behind the road of scrimmage (51.3%).
The Illinois Preventing Illini Protection
Illinois’ protection is a story of extremes, rating 51st in SP+ however struggling in a number of foundational metrics, together with 122nd in passing success price allowed (47.0%) and 121st in total success price (46.0%). The Illini concede 5.82 yards per play (98th) and rank ninetieth in factors allowed per drive (2.14), whereas additionally permitting a pink zone landing price of 72.2% (a hundred and tenth). Regardless of these points, they generate some disruptive performs—rating thirty third in LB havoc price (5.5%) and forty sixth in blitz price (46.1%)—however endure from poor secondary manufacturing, rating 114th in adjusted completion price allowed (72.7%) and 111th in Whole QBR (68.7). Their struggles towards each the cross and the run have made them overly reliant on high-scoring offensive performances to safe wins.
Illinois Participant to Watch on Protection: Edge Gabe Jacas
Jacas has been a disruptive edge presence for Illinois, notching 4.5 sacks and 13 complete pressures on 108 pass-rush makes an attempt, translating to a strong 12.0% stress price. He has generated 4 sacks independently and compelled two fumbles, whereas additionally logging 16 first pressures and a commendable 2.66-second common to stress. As a run defender, Jacas has recorded 22 complete tackles (13 solo), together with 4.0 tackles for loss and a team-leading 6 havoc performs, reflecting his multi-faceted impression. In protection, Jacas allowed only one reception for 4 yards on one goal, showcasing restricted publicity however sound execution in house.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois workforce stats, betting developments
Ohio State has received 6 straight street gamesIllinois has coated the Unfold in its final 5 dwelling gamesOhio State is 4-0-1 ATS this seasonIllinois is 5-1 ATS this seasonGame Totals in Illinois video games are 4-2 to the OVER (4-1 within the Final 5)Sport Totals in Ohio State video games are 2-3 to the OVER
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Ca’Lil Valentine UNDER 44.5 dashing yards
Illinois has trotted out a 3-man working again rotation with Kaden Feagin main the best way as a 2-down pounder and Ca’Lil Valentine/Aiden Laughrie serving because the change-of-pace backs. Nonetheless, final sport towards Purdue Valentine popped off for 22 carries and 95 dashing yards, a stark enhance in utilization over his earlier 7-carry common towards the opposite three P4 groups on Illinois’ schedule. With Illinois now taking over DC Matt Patricia’s shutdown protection that has allowed one TD thus far, I believe OSU will get up early and smothers an overmatched Illini offense much like the best way Indiana did when Valentine ran 6 occasions for 11 yards. I’m taking the Below on Ca’Lil Valentine’s 44.5 dashing yards prop.
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Our mannequin calculates projections round every moneyline, unfold and over/underneath wager for each sport on the faculty soccer calendar based mostly on knowledge factors like previous efficiency, participant matchups, stadium data and climate forecasts.
As soon as the mannequin is completed working, we put its projection subsequent to the newest betting strains for the sport to reach at a relative confidence stage for every wager.
Greatest bets our mannequin is projecting for this week’s sport between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 17 Illinois:
Moneyline: NBC Sports activities Guess is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.Unfold: NBC Sports activities Guess is leaning in the direction of a play ATS on the Illinois Preventing Illini at +14.5.Whole: NBC Sports activities Guess is recommending a play on the over on the Sport Whole of fifty.5.
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