The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs haven’t received essentially the most titles in Tremendous Bowl historical past, however they will turn out to be the primary franchise to seize three in a row. Heading into a well-known matchup in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles, there are variations to learn about with each groups.
The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles sequel on Feb. 9 to their assembly two years in the past marks the quickest timeline to a Tremendous Bowl rematch because the 1993 season, when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Buffalo Payments for a second 12 months in a row.
Such a fast turnaround creates the impression we’ve seen this matchup earlier than. In some respect – proper all the way down to the Chiefs once more carrying their white jerseys and the Eagles carrying their greens – we’ve got, certainly, seen it earlier than. Of all of the attainable matchups coming into convention championship weekend, this was the one a few of us had been least enthused about seeing.
However the Chiefs and Eagles are method totally different groups than two years in the past, when KC prevailed 38-35. Philly, particularly, has game-breaking gamers on either side of the ball who weren’t current for Chiefs-Eagles Half I.
Let’s look into the groups’ evolutions main into Tremendous Bowl 59 in New Orleans.
The Barkley Bump
What’s been the largest change for the Eagles offense between 2022 and ’24? The brief reply: They’ve Saquon Barkley now. Including a 2,000-yard working again is sweet. The longer reply tells us a bit extra, although: The Eagles have Saquon Barkley now, and he’s added an additional dimension to an current energy whereas properly complementing the Eagles’ different offensive stars.
The Eagles have been a run-heavy group for a number of years, as you’d anticipate of a franchise trotting out a bulldozer like Jalen Hurts at quarterback and placing him behind what’s lengthy been thought to be the NFL’s finest offensive line.
Within the 2022 season, the Eagles’ 45.2% run charge ranked seventh within the NFL. Their 46.3% run success charge and the offensive line’s 45.6% run disruption charge allowed had been each tops within the NFL. The humorous factor concerning the Eagles including an MVP candidate working again is that Barkley didn’t precisely rework something about how the offense operates.
He escalated it, although. The Eagles of two years in the past had been an environment friendly working group however not all that explosive. Regardless of their best-in-class success charge, their 4.5 yards per designed run play had been about league common the final time they made the Tremendous Bowl.
Through the 2024 common season, their 4.8 yards per design run play ranked fourth, a fair greater step up from a below-average 4.1 yards in 2023, once they made the NFL playoffs however had been bounced by Tampa Bay within the wild-card spherical.
Barkley’s house run-hitting means explains a number of the distinction. The Eagles had 38 runs of 15+ yards, main everybody besides Baltimore (47). Barkley was liable for 25 of these carries, tying him with the Ravens’ Derrick Henry and Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead. Hurts had 11 of them, main all quarterbacks apart from the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. It helps to have a dominant offensive line, but it surely additionally helps to interrupt by means of the second stage with explosive runners, and Philadelphia has unlocked that trait in spades.
In fact, it helps to not all the time face stacked defensive bins. The presence of extensive receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith has helped with that. The Eagles repeatedly face a below-average heavy field proportion regardless of everybody within the NFL understanding their choice to pound the rock.
A Shift in ‘Chiefs Satan Magic’
In 2022, the Chiefs undoubtedly had the perfect offense within the NFL, proper forward of the Eagles. They led the league in yards per play, anticipated factors added on offense and scoring. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was on the peak of his powers, tight finish Travis Kelce gained the second-most yards of his profession, then-offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was spinning up misdirection and trickery, and no one (together with the Eagles) may cease KC.
This season’s Chiefs offense has been common. They completed the common season twenty first in yards per play, tenth in EPA, and fifteenth in scoring. Most individuals aren’t silly sufficient to really doubt Mahomes, Kelce and Reid, however the Kansas Metropolis offense has been much less environment friendly, much less explosive, and fewer productive than at any time on this dynastic run. Normally, that doesn’t add as much as a 15-2 report, one other two playoff wins and a Tremendous Bowl look.
But right here Kansas Metropolis is, largely because of the completion of an identification shift that started a couple of years in the past. The Chiefs used to have the perfect offense and really practically the worst protection within the NFL. Now they’ve a good offense (albeit nonetheless a scary one) and a protection that has usually carried a lot of the weight. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit doesn’t have unimaginable total numbers (twelfth in yards per play, fifteenth in EPA) however managed to complete fourth in scoring due to its situational excellence.
“Chiefs Satan Magic” is a well-liked trope across the NFL web as of late, and it often focuses on Mahomes’ inexplicable means to drag wins out of his bottom when all is in opposition to him. Nevertheless it’s actually the Chiefs protection that defies rationalization.
The Chiefs completed within the prime 10 of fourth-down conversion charge allowed and in purple zone landing proportion – each hallmarks of an “opportunistic” protection that may “get off the sphere” in key moments. The Chiefs had been narrowly within the prime half of the league within the proportion of defensive drives (11.4%) that ended with a turnover. However they weren’t an particularly good third-down protection, giving up conversions at a 43.3% charge, which was the sixth lowest within the league.
But it has actually felt just like the Chiefs protection has come by means of within the largest moments. Actually, it’s come by means of usually sufficient to go a mixed 17-2. Spagnuolo has some imply blitzes in his bag, just like the one which beat Buffalo and quarterback Josh Allen on the decisive play of the AFC championship recreation.
The Chiefs don’t blitz a lot total, however on third and fourth downs, their 39.4% blitz charge was sixth-highest and their 53.2% strain charge tenth. An unpredictable coordinator coupled with nice defensive linemen like Chris Jones and George Karlaftis go a great distance. However the Chiefs’ total success charge allowed on late downs (43.9%) was a couple of ticks worse than league common, and it’s required further rushers to warmth up opposing QBs on them.
So as to add insult to satan magic, groups have forgotten learn how to kick in opposition to the Chiefs. A 77.4% discipline purpose make charge in opposition to them ranked fifth-lowest within the NFL, and an 85.7% charge of profitable further factors was simply the bottom. The Chiefs’ key defensive personnel – Jones, Karlaftis, Nick Bolton and Trent McDuffie – had been round two years in the past, however different groups’ means to remain cool in opposition to KC has apparently cratered.
Hi there, Jalen Carter
Jalen Carter, the Eagles’ star defensive deal with, is a very powerful individual on this Tremendous Bowl who wasn’t on both roster two years in the past.
Philadelphia has had a robust line of defense for years, particularly within the go dashing division. The 2022 group’s 70 sacks got here up simply two in need of the league report. However of the 4 double-digit sack-getters on that group, two now play elsewhere (deal with Javon Hargrave and edge rusher Haason Reddick) and one is injured (defensive finish Brandon Graham). Solely Josh Sweat, who had 11 sacks that season and eight this time round, stays a part of the combo for the Eagles on this Tremendous Bowl. The Eagles didn’t have a participant with double-digit sacks on the roster this season and had been roughly common with a 6.6% sack charge.
Right here is the place Carter, a 2023 first-round draft pick of Georgia, is available in. Carter has blossomed shortly right into a power of nature as each an explosive inside rusher and a run-stuffer. A non-Aaron Donald defensive deal with isn’t going to submit an unlimited sack complete, however Carter is a double-team magnet who posted 56 pressures from the center of the road and got here in second within the league with six tipped passes (Pittsburgh’s All-Professional Cam Heyward had a ridiculous 11 to rank No. 1).
Carter leads the Eagles in pressures regardless of taking part in deal with. He additionally posted 78 run disruptions at a charge of three per each 10 carriers confronted, making him arguably the best run-stopper within the league. He’s a real one-guy wrecking crew.
The Eagles had been third in success charge allowed (36.1%), second in factors allowed and first in yards allowed per play regardless of going from a traditionally nice sacks protection within the 2022 season to an atypical one in 2024.
Carter is essential to the Eagles nonetheless producing plenty of pressures (a 44.5% charge) even with out getting sacks, and he’s additionally the muse of a run protection that leaked lots in 2022 however is now one of many recreation’s stoutest. His matchup in opposition to Chiefs middle Creed Humphrey would possibly determine Tremendous Bowl 59.
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