MELBOURNE, Australia — After Novak Djokovic’s fourth-round Australian Open demolition of Adrian Mannarino, on-court interviewer Jim Courier requested the world No. 1 to share some early ideas on his subsequent match.
At that second, it was unclear who Djokovic’s quarterfinal opponent can be, as twelfth seed Taylor Fritz and final yr’s runner-up, Stefanos Tsitsipas, have been busy battling away a couple of courts over.
“Stefanos and I performed the ultimate right here final yr. He is been a longtime top-five, top-10 participant for a few years now. Very skilled with taking part in on an enormous stage. He is acquired the entire recreation. Nice participant, little question,” Djokovic stated. “Alternatively, you may have Fritz. Let’s examine.”
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The superlatives have been flowing freely for Tsitsipas and spared for Fritz. Was it merely an indication of confidence from the 24-time main champion? Most likely.
An hour later, Fritz confirmed his place within the final eight after knocking out the Greek star in 4 units.
“If I beat somebody eight instances in a row, I would be fairly assured taking part in them, too. I can not actually fault [Djokovic] for that,” Fritz stated. “It has been one-sided with Novak. I really feel like he is performed me just about the identical each time.”
However is it actually a certain victory for the defending Australian Open champ? We have a look.
Why Novak Djokovic will win
The place do you start? Djokovic hasn’t misplaced on the Australian Open in over six years, he holds an eye-popping 93-8 profession document on the match and, oh yeah, he has hoisted the trophy a document 10 instances. The world No. 1 has additionally feasted on People on the majors, dropping simply thrice from 38 matchups.
There’s additional motivation for him this fortnight, too. Djokovic is looking one other slice of tennis historical past, one thing that would finish the GOAT debate as soon as and for all. An eleventh Djokovic triumph in Melbourne would transfer him to outright first for main singles titles (25), breaking his present tie with Australia’s Margaret Courtroom.
However why ought to Djokovic fancy this particular matchup?
Fritz has by no means overwhelmed Djokovic. He has performed him eight instances, and eight instances he has fallen properly brief. Djokovic has additionally received the previous 12 units of tennis in opposition to Fritz, courting again to their assembly at this very match in 2021.
Of their most up-to-date match, finally yr’s US Open, Djokovic was in management all through. He dictated the play, neutralized Fritz’s weapons and cruised to a cushty 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 victory.
Do not low cost the back-against-the-wall issue, both. It is truthful to say Djokovic had simply been plodding alongside within the early rounds of this yr’s match, however ever since that back-and-forth with an unruly spectator in his second-round match, he has appeared scarily dominant. He crushed Mannarino in his most up-to-date outing, relinquishing simply three video games within the rout.
“Right this moment was the perfect day, when it comes to tennis, the best way I felt on the courtroom,” Djokovic stated after his fourth-round win. “I am actually excited to enter the second week. I sit up for the battles as a result of clearly the opponents are higher-ranked. There is no straightforward matches, little question about that.”
Djokovic merely thrives underneath these circumstances, and the encounter with that unruly fan would possibly properly have jump-started his recreation.
Why Taylor Fritz will win
May Sunday’s win over Tsitsipas have unlocked a brand new degree of confidence for Fritz, the lone American man left within the discipline? Previous to that contest, he was 0-10 in Slam matches in opposition to top-10-ranked opponents. He’s lastly over that hurdle, and the monkey would possibly properly be off his again.
Whereas Djokovic breezed by means of his fourth-round match in opposition to Mannarino, he hasn’t been completely invincible this match. The truth is, for the primary time since 2018, he dropped units in each of his opening matches of a Slam marketing campaign. The Serbian star has additionally confirmed he’s battling a virus this fortnight in Melbourne, and it does not seem he has totally overcome it.
A lot of this may sound extra like “why Djokovic might lose” versus “why Fritz will win,” however the world No. 12 will want each little benefit he can get if he is to trigger the upset.
As talked about, Fritz was defeated simply when he final performed Djokovic at this similar quarterfinal stage at Flushing Meadows, but it surely wasn’t as if he did not create alternatives. Fritz carved out 12 break level possibilities. The issue? He transformed simply two of them.
Fritz additionally struggled along with his serve that day. Simply 55% of his first serves landed in play, one thing you’d anticipate to be an space of appreciable enchancment this time round. By his 4 matches in Melbourne, Fritz is touchdown 66% of his first serves and is but to dip beneath 64% in any match.
“I believe that I’ve much more degree to carry than I’ve beforehand introduced in opposition to him,” Fritz stated. “I believe the circumstances listed here are positively higher than the US Open.”
Fritz additionally enjoys the uncommon benefit of dealing with Djokovic within the second week of a significant and being the brisker participant. By 4 matches, Djokovic has spent 11 hours and 24 minutes on courtroom, whereas Fritz clocks in at 10 hours and 55 minutes. It might sound negligible, however once more, any slight edge is one thing when dealing with the perfect participant on the planet.
It may be a monumental problem for Fritz, however he’s actually in type. Perhaps the type of his life.
“Begin to end I performed rather well,” Fritz stated after his win over Tsitsipas. “I am tremendous joyful about the best way I completed it. The final three video games of the match I actually, actually turned it on, nearly like I used to be in a trance and every little thing. I felt like I knew precisely what shot to hit, the suitable resolution to make on each ball. It has been some time since I’ve had that feeling, so it offers me loads of confidence.”
What is going to occur?
It is troublesome to see Fritz lastly turning the tables on Djokovic on the match Djokovic has merely owned all through his profession. Count on a decent first two units earlier than Djokovic runs away with the match within the third.
