Bellator Light-weight champion, Usman Nurmagomedov, will try and defend his crown reverse knockout artist, Alexander Shabliy, this weekend (Sat., Sept. 7, 2024) at Bellator Champion Sequence 4 inside Pechanga Area in San Diego, California.
Overlook all of the weirdness with PFL buying Bellator and sidelining half of the roster: that is an impressive Light-weight conflict, among the finest potential non-UFC match ups on this planet. It’s additionally the finals match of the Bellator Light-weight World Grand Prix, which started approach again in March 2023.
The Nuragomedov hype is concurrently absurd and utterly justified. That is an athlete described as essentially the most gifted of the Dagestani bunch, which is foolish … however he’s additionally undefeated in 18 professional fights and already a defending world champion at 26 years of age. Possibly it’s not foolish? Shabliy is a superb foil to the champion, an knowledgeable kickboxer with nice wrestling and a ton of high-level expertise on the Russian Light-weight scene.
Let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:
Nurmagomedov vs. Shabliy Betting Odds
Usman Nurmagomedov victory: -455
Usman Nurmagomedov by way of TKO/KO/DQ: +550
Usman Nurmagomedov by way of submission: +350
Usman Nurmagomedov by way of determination: -105
Alexandr Shabliy victory: +320
Alexandr Shabliy by way of TKO/KO/DQ: +800
Alexandr Shabliy by way of submission: +3000
Alexandr Shabliy by way of determination: +550
Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook
How Nurmagomedov Wins
Dominant wrestling is anticipated when a fighter has the Nurmagomedov household title. Usman separates himself from the household with maybe the very best putting of the lot, a various and highly effective kicking sport that may finish fights straight away. Nonetheless, the explanation Nurmagomedov has been so dominant in Bellator is that he can do all of it. The champion kicks extraordinarily properly, has energy in his fingers, and might maul opposition on the canvas.
On this match up, wrestling looks like the very best wager. Shabliy is an knowledgeable striker himself and may simply maintain the facility benefit. It’s in Nurmagomedov’s finest curiosity, then, to persuade Shabliy that he’s in a kickboxing match solely to frustrate him with well-timed photographs.
Shabliy is a talented and skilled veteran unlikely to fold simply because he’s taken down a pair instances, however that’s how Nurmagomedov can stay within the driver’s seat. We’ve seen Shabliy interact in low-volume fights towards high-level strikers up to now (like vs. Tofiq Musayev), so a pair takedowns in a slower combat could make an enormous distinction.
How Shabliy Wins
Shabliy is a really well-rounded expertise with a background in hand-to-hand fight in addition to Fight Sambo. He can do all of it, however Shabliy likes to strike and is extra of a strain fighter — and one hit knockout artist — than his opponent.
Fighters like Nurmagomedov who kick and wrestle exceptionally properly are at all times troublesome. Opponents need to strain to cease the kicks, however they stroll into takedowns. In the event that they dangle again, they simply get kicked … and perhaps nonetheless taken down alongside the fence. It’s a strong dynamic that isn’t simple to reply. We simply noticed a really good fighter in Cory Sandhagen efficiently negate Umar Nurmagomedov’s wrestling, however he nonetheless couldn’t strain and generate his personal offense.
It’s an advanced process.
Nonetheless, it’s what Shabliy should accomplish right here. Affected person strain aided by feints and good shot choice is the important thing to victory. I’d prefer to see Shabliy look to cut into the calf at moments when Nurmagomedov can not try and wrestle, like when he’s circling off, jabbing, or in the midst of his personal kick. Shabliy’s entrance kick could possibly be a very good weapon as properly, notably if thrown on the finish of combos.
Combos are key right here as properly. It’s so exhausting to construct offense towards the Nurmagomedov combat staff, however single photographs simply aren’t going to beat them.
Nurmagomedov vs. Shabliy Prediction
It’s exhausting to go towards the rising phenom.
I like Shabliy’s sport and expertise loads. He’s undoubtedly a prime Light-weight who offers most anybody hassle, and that features Usman Nurmagomedov. Sadly, Nurmagomedov goes to be the quicker man, and it’s exhausting to not think about his wrestling sealing at the least one spherical. Shabliy may make one thing occur if in a position to acquire the pocket persistently, however I count on he finally ends up caught on the kicking vary for lengthy durations of the combat.
Usman Nurmagomedov stays Bellator’s undefeated champion and finest total fighter.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by way of determination (-105)
