Olympic Men’s 1500m Preview: Ingebrigtsen v Kerr Should Be Legendary; Could Hocker Pull the Upset?

The wait is nearly over. The lads’s Olympic 1500 meters is nearly upon us.

The 1500 is all the time one of many crown jewels of the Olympic program, and the burgeoning rivalry between Olympic champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen of Norway and world champion Josh Kerr of Nice Britain has despatched anticipation ranges by means of the roof in 2024. The final two international 1500-meter finals have been unforgettable, and this 12 months’s race is shaping up as an all-time basic after the 2 males have spent the final 12 months buying and selling verbal barbs.

LRC Jakob Ingebrigtsen & Josh Kerr Open Up on Their Relationship (Or Lack Thereof) Earlier than 2024 Bowerman Mile

On the evening of August 6 within the Stade de France, certainly one of three issues will occur:

Article continues beneath participant.

1) Ingebrigtsen will win his second Olympic 1500-meter title on the age of 23, becoming a member of Seb Coe (1980, 1984) as the one man to repeat as champion.

2) Kerr will win gold, simply as he did finally 12 months’s World Championships, bringing Ingebrigtsen’s document in international 1500m finals to 0-4 since his triumph on the 2021 Olympics (with 1 being the 2022 World Indoors loss).

3) Another person will win the title in one of many nice Olympic upsets. May it’s 19-year-old phenom Niels Laros? Or maybe two-time Olympic Trials champion Cole Hocker of the US?

So long as the race isn’t marred by a fall — which has sadly develop into all too frequent in middle-distance races this 12 months — it’s laborious to ascertain a state of affairs by which this race is just not completely superior. Right here’s what that you must know.

*2024 Olympic observe & subject schedule *TV/streaming info *All LRC Paris 2024 protection

Kerr vs. Ingebrigtsen: Setting the scene

Ingebrigtsen is coming off a private greatest of three:26.74 in Monaco on July 12 that makes him the fourth-fastest man of all time. He’s within the form of his life. That’s what each athlete goals for heading into the Olympic Video games, nevertheless it was removed from a given for Ingebrigtsen, who missed a piece of coaching this winter as a consequence of an Achilles damage.

That point additionally makes Ingebrigtsen the quickest man of 2024 by virtually two seconds:

Athlete
Meet
Date
Time

Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Herculis
July 12
3:26.74

Josh Kerr
Prefontaine
Could 25
3:28.65*

Timothy Cheruiyot
Herculis
July 12
3:28.71

Brian Komen
Herculis
July 12
3:28.80

Yared Nuguse
Herculis
July 12
3:29.13

*Transformed from 3:45.34 mile

Ingebrigtsen’s season’s greatest is 1.91 seconds higher than everybody else this 12 months, which is across the hole you want to have the ability to win a worldwide championship from the entrance (the tactic everybody expects Ingebrigtsen to make use of). However that statistic ignores two issues.

1) Kerr beat Ingebrigtsen when Kerr ran his season’s greatest on the Prefontaine Basic.

2) Kerr hasn’t run a 1500 or mile since Pre.

The truth is, Kerr’s race at Pre is his solely 1500 or mile of the complete 12 months. Despite the fact that Kerr has been wholesome nearly the complete 12 months, his first 1500-meter of 2024 would be the first spherical of the Olympics on August 2.

Kevin Morris picture

Traditionally, Kerr has not run a ton of 1500s within the leadup to main championships. In 2021, he ran three 1500m finals earlier than the Olympics. In 2022, he ran two. And in 2023, he ran two. Kerr’s coach Danny Mackey advised LetsRun.com that Kerr would have run the 1500 on the Portland Observe Competition on June 9, however he was a little bit banged up.

For Kerr, who has been coaching for the Olympics in Albuquerque, racing in Europe requires a big quantity of journey. After returning to ABQ following the British trials, Mackey mentioned Kerr most well-liked to log a month of uninterrupted altitude coaching fairly than break that up by racing Diamond Leagues in Monaco or London. Mackey additionally pointed to Kerr’s observe document of staying wholesome and performing effectively at championships as causes to not change his strategy. To be trustworthy, that’s an understatement as Josh Kerr has run his 1500 seasonal greatest time in each single international 1500 last he’s ever run (3:32.52 in 2019 (sixth), 3:29.05 in 2021 (third), 3:30.60 in 2022 (fifth), 3:29.38 in 2023 (1st).

“He places loads into races,” Mackey mentioned. “…I all the time do marvel how athletes can pull off a ton of races and keep wholesome.

“The one time he hasn’t medalled within the final three [championships] was [when] he had COVID in 2022 and he nonetheless received fifth (Mackey mentioned Kerr was sick within the last and recognized the subsequent day). If he’s operating poorly in August, we’d in all probability look by means of issues and marvel if he may have to race extra. However he appears to be fairly sharp and able to go [at major championships].”

All of that’s to say I don’t consider that the 1.91-second hole Ingebrigtsen has on the remainder of the world this 12 months is definitely 1.91 seconds – Kerr is nearer than that.

Kerr has been red-hot in 2024 and received the World Indoor 3k title on house soil in March (Kevin Morris picture)

How a lot nearer? Kerr, like Ingebrigtsen, is undeniably fitter than he was in 2023. On the 2023 Millrose Video games, Kerr received the three,000 in 7:33.47. This 12 months at Millrose, Kerr got here by means of 3,000 in 7:30.14…then ran one other 218 meters to set a world indoor document of 8:00.67 for 2 miles (Ingebrigtsen set the outside document of seven:54.10 final 12 months). A month later, Kerr crushed 3:43 miler Yared Nuguse and reigning 3k champ Selemon Barega to win the World Indoor 3,000 title with a killer 25.19 final lap. Open air, Kerr’s 3:45.34 win at Pre broke Steve Cram‘s 39-year-old British mile document and the 1500 conversion (3:28.65) is quicker than his pb at that distance (3:29.05).

Mackey mentioned they’ve labored on bettering Kerr’s top-end velocity this 12 months and really feel that he’s sprinting sooner than ever, however Kerr continues to be very sturdy. Two weeks earlier than the Olympics, Kerr ran 8 x 400m in follow with 90 seconds’ relaxation averaging 54 seconds — the quickest he has ever run that session. Mackey advised LetsRun.com that if Kerr had raced the 1500 in Monaco, he believes he would have run 3:26.

“I don’t know if he beats Jakob, however I believe he’s proper there with him,” Mackey mentioned.

“If I’m Jakob or Cheruiyot, I might attempt to push the tempo and make it a 3:26 race”

There can be no pacers in Paris, which suggests Ingebrigtsen received’t take pleasure in the advantage of drafting off anybody if he does what everybody expects him to do and hits the entrance early. And between the 2 males, Kerr is thought to be having the superior kick. So if we take Mackey at his phrase and say Kerr is in 3:26 form, does that make Kerr the plain favourite for gold?

Not essentially. Kerr could also be a slight favourite for the explanations listed above, however even when he’s a greater kicker (and the hole between him and Ingebrigtsen could also be nearer than you assume), the sooner a race goes, the more durable it’s to kick on the finish.

And did you watch Monaco? Ingebrigtsen didn’t simply run 3:26. He ran 3:26 closing in 40.2 for his last 300. Meaning Ingebrigtsen hit 1200 on 3:28.1 tempo and picked it up. Are you aware how laborious it’s to try this?

By the way, kicking off a quick tempo can also be the way in which you win championship 1500m finals within the 12 months 2024. Mackey mentioned he wouldn’t be shocked if the Ingebrigtsen’s Olympic document of three:28.32 from three years in the past is obliterated on this race.

“I watch Monaco, and if I’m Jakob or [Tim] Cheruiyot, I might attempt to push the tempo and make it a 3:26 race [in Paris],” Mackey advised LetsRun.com.

That’s clearly going to be powerful to do. However the sooner Ingebrigtsen runs within the last, the more durable he makes it on Kerr. It’s fairly easy: it’s more durable to go somebody operating 3:28 tempo than 3:29 tempo and more durable nonetheless to go somebody operating 3:27 tempo.

The identical logic applies if Ingebrigtsen does what some on the LetsRun messageboard have advised and replicate Hicham El Guerrouj‘s technique from the 2004 Olympic last, making a protracted push over the ultimate 800-1000m and ratcheting up the tempo each 100 (MB JACOB and YARED, why received’t both attempt to emulate Hicham’s 1500m techniques?). That’s primarily what Ingebrigtsen did on the European Championships in Rome in June, and he received that race brilliantly in 3:31.95 (1:50.54 last 800, 53.34 last 400, 26.11 last 200, 12.86 last 100). After all, Kerr was not in that one.

In his final three international 1500 finals (2022 World Indoors, 2022 Worlds, 2023 Worlds) Ingebrigtsen has taken the lead someplace between 300 and 700 meters and pushed the tempo. Every time, it has ended the identical method: Ingebrigtsen succeeded in dropping the complete subject…minus one man, who outkicked him over the ultimate 200 meters.

You may assume that three straight silver medals would name for a change in technique for a person who received Olympic 1500 gold at age 20. However virtually everybody expects Ingebrigtsen to make use of the identical technique in Paris. Ingebrigtsen is cussed. His response to getting upset by Jake Wightman and Josh Kerr in back-to-back World Championship finals was to double down and inform Norwegian paper Stavanger Aftenblad that he would win in opposition to them “98 out of 100 instances.”

We all know that quantity is improper, as a result of Ingebrigtsen misplaced his very subsequent race to Kerr at Pre. However relating to his technique in championship finals, Ingebrigtsen is true to be cussed. Simply because he was overwhelmed in Belgrade, Eugene, and Budapest doesn’t imply that Ingebrigtsen was improper to push the tempo and attempt to win from the entrance. Ingebrigtsen is a energy runner. He has a greater probability of defeating Kerr (and everybody else) in a quick race than a sluggish one.

Ingebrigtsen is not going to have forgotten this race (Photograph by Stephen Pond/Getty Photographs for World Athletics)

Think about final 12 months’s World Championship last. Sure, Kerr famously outkicked Ingebrigtsen to win gold. However Ingebrigtsen has very overtly admitted he was sick throughout that race, and the numbers again it up. Ingebrigtsen had been burying individuals over the ultimate 100 on the circuit earlier than Worlds final 12 months. Within the leadup to Budapest, he ran 3:27.95 in Oslo, 3:28.72 in Lausanne, and three:27.14 in Silesia. His last 100m in these races: 13.4, 13.3, 13.3 — and people are races the place he clearly had the win sewn up within the house straight. In Budapest, the successful time was slower (3:29.65), Ingebrigtsen had a man to chase within the house straight, but his last 100 was simply 13.9 (and he solely misplaced to Kerr by .27).

There are two methods to view that. One is that Ingebrigtsen ran his first 300 of the final lap in 39.86 — far faster than any of his DL races — and was thus drained out by the end. The second approach to interpret it’s that Ingebrigtsen was genuinely sick and it affected his efficiency. The reality might be a mixture of each.

However we all know how Ingebrigtsen feels. After the race, Ingebrigtsen mentioned he felt he ran a “excellent [tactical] race.” In his thoughts, Ingebrigtsen didn’t make a tactical mistake; his physique simply was not able to doing what it had executed all 12 months as he was sick.

We’ll by no means know the way a wholesome Ingebrigtsen would have fared in opposition to Kerr in Budapest, nor in opposition to Tefera in Belgrade in 2022 the place he examined constructive for Covid-19 a number of days later. However, assuming nobody will get sick within the subsequent 10 days, we’ll get to see how a good higher model of Ingebrigtsen fares in opposition to a good higher model of Kerr in Paris. It’s going to be superior.

May anybody else win?

Given the months of trash discuss, their 1-2 end final 12 months, and each males’s good performances in 2024, it’s tempting to label this race as a two-man battle between Ingebrigtsen and Kerr. And whereas it may effectively play out that method, current proof suggests we may see an intruder.

Keep in mind, nobody anticipated Wightman to be at Ingebrigtsen’s stage in Eugene two years in the past. Heading into final 12 months’s Worlds in Budapest, Yared Nuguse, not Kerr, was considered as the largest menace to Ingebrigtsen. So if somebody goes to shock for gold in 2024, who may it’s?

Two of the three People, Nuguse and Cole Hocker have a shot at pulling the upset. The opposite, 21-year-old Hobbs Kessler, has been very spectacular this 12 months. He received the world highway mile title final 12 months and virtually received World Indoors in March, however the Olympics can be a big soar in competitors from each of these occasions. He’s doubtless nonetheless a 12 months or two away from contending at a serious outside champs.

We’ll get to the People in a minute. Let’s begin with the Kenyans.

Timothy Cheruiyot (3:28.71) and Brian Komen (3:28.80) sit 2-3 on the 2024 world record after ending 2nd and third behind Ingebrigtsen in Monaco. Cheruiyot, who earned two silvers and a gold on the Worlds/Olympics from 2017-21, seemed to be on the decline the previous couple of years as he was solely sixth on the 2022 Worlds in Eugene and didn’t make the ultimate in Budapest final 12 months whereas battling a knee damage. This 12 months, a wholesome Cheruiyot has been rejuvenated, pushing Ingebrigtsen to the road in Oslo and operating his quickest 1500 since 2021.

The 25-year-old Komen, in the meantime, has come out of nowhere this 12 months — significantly, his World Athletics profile lists no outcomes previous to final 12 months — to win titles on the African Video games and African Championships in addition to the Doha Diamond League. Nevertheless, he was solely fifth on the Kenyan trials. He’s solely going to Paris as a result of two of the blokes in entrance of him lacked the Olympic customary.

The priority about Cheruiyot and Komen, clearly, is that they simply received blasted by Ingebrigtsen in Monaco. Whereas Cheruiyot has the much more spectacular resume, Komen will be the higher decide for an upset in Paris as he’s nonetheless discovering his limits. And his 54.4 final lap in Monaco confirmed he can shut rapidly in a quick race.

The third Kenyan — and winner of their trials — is Reynold Cheruiyot, and he’s an enormous expertise. He was the world U20 champ two years in the past and solely turned 20 in the present day – Completely satisfied Birthday! Final 12 months, he was eighth at Worlds, however his performances on the circuit in 2024 (third Doha, 2nd LA behind Ollie Hoare, sixth Pre) counsel he’s not prepared but to spring an upset bid in Paris.

The Netherlands’ Niels Laros is a possible wild card. Final 12 months, at age 18, he clocked pbs of 1:44.78, 3:31.25, and 13:23.01 and ran totally fearlessly at Worlds — he was 4th coming off the ultimate flip however ran out of steam and completed tenth. This 12 months, we haven’t gotten the possibility to see what a fully-fit Laros can do in a 1500 as he fell in Monaco and fell once more in London every week later. However we all know he’s in nice form. On July 7, he ran a world U20 document of two:14.37 within the 1000m, and despite the fact that the autumn value him 2+ seconds in London, he nonetheless ran 3:49.45 and virtually received the race. The query is whether or not Laros, at 19, has the legs to run 3:27 or 3:28 within the last after two laborious rounds.

MB Laros’ present form

Ritzenhein on Nuguse: “I do assume he can shut [the gap to Ingebrigtsen]”

On the finish of 2023, American Yared Nuguse appeared the perfect guess of anybody to crash the Ingebrigtsen-Kerr social gathering. Nuguse has by no means defeated Ingebrigtsen (0-6 lifetime), however he got here extremely shut in final 12 months’s Diamond League last the place each males ran 3:43. US followers hoped that efficiency (which converts to three:27.40 for 1500, an enormous enchancment on Nuguse’s 3:29.02 pb) meant Nuguse had reached one other stage after what was already a breakout 2023 season. However thus far, Nuguse has been on the identical stage in 2024 as he was for many of 2023.

That stage continues to be very excessive, and it may very well be adequate to get on the rostrum — he was 2nd behind Kerr at World Indoors within the 3k and third behind Kerr and Ingebrigtsen within the mile at Prefontaine, operating 3:46.22. However Nuguse was not near successful both of these races, and in his two international finals (2023 World 1500, 2024 World Indoor 3000), Nuguse was out of place and/or too late to reply to the successful strikes once they have been made. He should be extra aggressive if he’s to problem for gold in Paris.

Plus, just like the Kenyans, Nuguse simply received smoked by Ingebrigtsen in Monaco, ending greater than two seconds behind in 4th (3:29.13). His coach Dathan Ritzenhein believes Nuguse can shut the hole in Paris, nevertheless. Ritzenhein mentioned that Nuguse has been extra championship-focused than final 12 months, and believes he’s in higher form than earlier than the 2023 Worlds. Ritzenhein famous that in final 12 months’s World last, Nuguse ran 3:30.25 in his third race in 5 days. At this 12 months’s Olympic Trials, Nuguse ran virtually the identical time (3:30.86), besides it was his third race in 4 days and he led virtually the complete factor.

“I do assume he can shut [the gap to Ingebrigtsen],” Ritzenhein advised LetsRun.com. “I believe there was extra within the tank there for him [in Monaco]. He’ll deal with the rounds higher than final 12 months, too, he went by means of his first actual main championships final 12 months…Jakob regarded superb at Monaco for certain, however he additionally ran 3:27 earlier than [Worlds] final 12 months and received beat.”

The most effective upset decide for gold is…

…Cole Hocker. Right here’s the case for the 23-year-old American.

If, as anticipated, the Olympic last performs out equally to the 2022 and 2023 World Championship finals, then we all know what’s required for gold. You want the energy to have the ability to run 3:29 (perhaps 3:28 this 12 months given the shape Ingebrigtsen and Kerr have proven) on the finish of three rounds, and also you want to have the ability to kick off of that tempo over the past 200. That’s how Wightman and Kerr pulled their upsets, and Hocker has proven in 2024 that he possesses the identical skillset.

Hocker has all the time been in a position to kick. It’s the energy half that has been the difficulty for him. In Hocker’s earlier two international championships outdoor, he has not been bodily cabaple of operating 3:29. He completed sixth on the 2021 Olympics in 3:31.40 and seventh on the 2023 Worlds in 3:30.70. Each instances have been private bests. Hocker couldn’t summon his signature kick in both race as a result of he was already operating as quick as his physique may deal with.

Issues are completely different in 2024. After being restricted by a foot damage in 2022 and Achilles issues in 2023, Hocker has been injury-free in 2024 and has run extra 5k-style exercises than in years previous. The early returns (8:05 2-mile indoors, 12:58 5k in Could) have been promising, however the proof Hocker has reached a brand new stage got here within the Olympic Trials 1500 last.

Hocker didn’t simply win the Trials in a pb of three:30.59. He did it with a savage shut: 1:49.44 for his last 800, 52.63 for his last 400. The race felt completely different to any championship last Hocker had been in earlier than.

“I’ve by no means been in a position to [accelerate] at that tempo earlier than,” Hocker mentioned. “You would have advised me that was a 3:35 race and I might have believed it.”

How spectacular was Hocker’s shut on the Trials? LRC messageboard poster Raph has compiled a tremendous desk evaluating Hocker’s last 300m in that race to each World/Olympic last since 1980. In these races, no winner closed sooner than Hocker’s 38.9 whereas operating as quick as Hocker did on the Trials. Keep in mind when Taoufik Makhloufi destroyed everybody over the ultimate 300 within the 2012 Olympic last? His last 300 in that race was 39.4 — slower than Hocker regardless of a a lot slower successful time (3:34.08).

If you happen to have a look at Hocker’s shut on the Trials in comparison with each international last the place the successful time was sooner than 3:34, you’d have to return to the mid-90s to seek out somebody who closed sooner:

How Hocker’s kick stacks up in opposition to winners of world championships (successful time < 3:34.00)

Athlete
Race
Profitable time
Last 300

Noureddine Morceli
1995 Worlds
3:33.73
38.5

Noureddine Morceli
1991 Worlds
3:32.84
38.8

Cole Hocker
2024 US Olympic Trials
3:30.59
38.9

Asbel Kiprop
2008 Olympics
3:33.11
39.1

Sebastian Coe
1984 Olympics
3:32.53
39.2

Josh Kerr
2023 Worlds
3:29.38
39.8

Elijah Manangoi
2017 Worlds
3:33.61
39.8

Noah Ngeny
2000 Olympics
3:32.07
40.1

Hicham El Guerrouj
1999 Worlds
3:27.65
40.8

Jakob Ingebrigtsen
2021 Olympics
3:28.32
40.8

Jake Wightman
2022 Worlds
3:29.23
40.8

Information courtesy of Raph from this LetsRun messageboard thread: MB Hocker’s Ridiculous Kick. The stats don’t lie. “As of proper now, I believe it’s honest to say that statistically Hocker has the best 1500m kick of all time, with Coe at #2, and perhaps Morceli

Is that this cherry choosing information? After all. Nevertheless it actually appears related that Hocker simply received the Olympic Trials by operating his last 300 virtually a full second sooner than Kerr did on the 2023 Worlds and two seconds sooner than Wightman did on the 2022 Worlds. It reveals Hocker has what it takes to shut quick in a quick championship last.

The distinction in fact, is that the 2022 and 2023 Worlds finals have been each 3:29 races, and the 2024 Olympic last may very well be sooner nonetheless. Will Hocker’s kick nonetheless be there if the tempo is that quick? In Could, when Kerr and Ingebrigtsen have been duking it out within the Prefontaine Mile, Hocker was greater than three seconds again in 3:48.95. Hocker was clearly fitter than that on the Trials, however he didn’t run Monaco so we didn’t get to see if he has closed the hole to Ingebrigtsen & Kerr. We’ll have to attend till August 6 to seek out out.

JG prediction: 1. Kerr 2. Ingebrigtsen 3. Hocker

Who wins the lads’s 1500 on the 2024 Olympics?