Pennington Vs. Pena Betting Odds, Prediction

Final Combating Championship (UFC) ladies’s Bantamweight champions Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena will collide this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 inside Delta Middle in Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah.

It’s removed from probably the most attention-grabbing title battle in 135-pound historical past, however there’s a backstory right here. The 2 competed on the identical season of The Final Fighter (TUF) over a decade in the past now with Pena taking the title and Pennington developing brief as a semi-finalist. Since then, Pennington has been the extra constantly profitable fighter, however “The Venezuelan Vixen” turned the one girl to dethrone Amanda Nunes … even when she gave that title proper again within the rematch.

All in all, it’s each odd and unlikely that these two haven’t by some means fought earlier than both within the TUF home or of their shared 11 years on the roster. It’s not like there are are a whole lot of ladies’s Bantamweights crowding the roster! Finally, maybe its greatest they by no means met within the cage, as a result of the match up was reserved for the best doable stakes.

Let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Pennington vs. Pena Betting Odds

Raquel Pennington victory: -170
Raquel Pennington by way of TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
Raquel Pennington by way of submission: +450
Raquel Pennington by way of resolution: +100
Julianna Pena victory: +142
Julianna Pena by way of TKO/KO/DQ: +1200
Julianna Pena by way of submission: +650
Julianna Pena by way of resolution: +275
Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pennington Wins

“Rocky” positively has sharper, extra constant boxing than most of her friends. She’s not a fearsome knockout artist, however she lands with sufficient snap to earn her opponent’s respect and constantly pushes a stable tempo.

In some ways, we’re speaking about related fighters right here. Pennington and Pena each win fights by way of grit and conditioning most of the time. The distinction is that Pena often does so on the ground — her arms are really terrible — whereas Pennington outworks her opponent within the pocket.

Pennington is aware of easy methods to wrestle thankfully, and he or she additionally has underrated entrance chokes. Given Pena’s penchant for getting herself submitted whereas pushing a tempo, I’d prefer to see Pennington threatening these chokes early on when her opponent tries to alter ranges. She must put a little bit of worry in Pena’s thoughts and persuade her to spend extra time upright.

In any other case, the physique jab appears like a fantastic weapon for Pena. It ought to assist hold the wrestling off her, in addition to function a fantastic setup for her proper hand.

How Pena Wins

Pena is a gutsy fighter. Her sport has by no means actually developed past athleticism and wrestling, however she has the toughness and cardio to make troublesome fights even for the likes of Amanda Nunes.

At 35 years of age, it feels unrealistic to anticipate sudden technical improvement from Pena after a decade of stagnancy. Seemingly, she does the identical factor she at all times does: throw ugly punches erratically, push Pena into the fence, after which chain wrestle into prime place. By itself, which may work, as a result of Pena is the stronger girl and extra achieved wrestler.

But, this is able to be a fantastic match up for only a little bit of sport planning. As Pena introduced the dipping jab into her scrap with Nunes, maybe she may deliver the calf kick into this title battle? It’s not a tough strike to throw, and Pena’s lead leg is completely weak to the strike. If Pena may steal away a few of Pennington’s consolation within the pocket, it might go a good distance in creating extra management time for the challenger.

Pennington vs. Pena Prediction

I actually don’t have sturdy emotions about this battle. It ought to be scrappy and fairly entertaining, but it surely doesn’t really feel like there’s wherever that both girl can dominate. Pena may choose up some rounds from prime place, however she’s unlikely to submit Pennington or actually tough her up. Conversely, Pennington may contact up her opponent with some jabs and 1-2s, however Pena went 25 minutes with a vengeful “Lioness” and was nonetheless swinging.

It actually comes down as to if or not you belief Pena’s athleticism or Pennington’s boxing ability. Neither impress me terribly, so the higher guess appears like siding with the girl who has really gained greater than two fights since 2020.

Prediction: Pennington by way of resolution (+100)