Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Abu Dhabi, X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., Aug. 3, 2024), Final Combating Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Etihad Area in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates for UFC Abu Dhabi. The non-PPV occasions in current weeks have been lacking just a little one thing, however this card is a transparent exception. Cory Sandhagen is about as battle-tested as contenders come at 135-pounds, whereas Umar Nurmagomedov may simply be the subsequent champion to come back from Dagestan — it’s an ideal most important occasion! Higher but, the remainder of the primary card fights are extremely intriguing and more likely to be very enjoyable, which is a superb mixture.

Let’s dig into all the primary card fights main as much as the co-main occasion:

Bantamweight: Marlon Vera (+145) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-175)

Finest Win for Vera? Sean O’Malley For Figueiredo? Brandon MorenoCurrent Streak: Vera misplaced his final bout, whereas Figueiredo has received two in a row since transferring to 135-poundsX-Issue: Vera was completely demolished in his final fightHow these two match up: I’ve excessive expectations for a full-on Bantamweight banger.

Take a look at these betting odds and inform me public perception in Vera isn’t at an all-time low at the moment. Sadly, that’s what occurs if you play the function of punching bag in a UFC title battle. Vera is extremely robust and viciously opportunistic, however battle followers are just a little fed up along with his reactive model.

Figueiredo, in the meantime, has been performing very well as a Bantamweight! The previous Flyweight king remains to be hitting with a ton of energy, and his wrestling has held up very nicely in opposition to greater opponents. He’s shortly marching up the ladder and could possibly be only a couple fights from a title shot.

I’m just a little torn right here. On one hand, it’s been a couple of fights since Vera has regarded significantly good within the Octagon. On the identical time, Figueiredo is 36 years of age, and I’m not bought on the concept of “Daico” as a real title menace in his new division. There’s additionally the difficulty that Figueiredo normally wins by way of end, whereas Vera is functionally immortal.

In the end, the truth that this battle is quarter-hour slightly than 25 has me siding with the Brazilian. Between his energy punches and takedowns, it feels possible that Figueiredo can snag no less than two of the three rounds. If Vera does rally late, nicely, Figueiredo is no less than a lot comfy in a dogfight.

Prediction: Figueiredo by way of determination

Welterweight: Tony Ferguson (+470) vs. Michael Chiesa (-650)

Finest Win for Ferguson? Rafael dos Anjos For Chiesa? Beneil DariushCurrent Streak: Ferguson has misplaced a file seven in a row, whereas Chiesa has misplaced his final threeX-Issue: Ferguson is shotHow these two match up: It most likely received’t be boring, however I’m not trying ahead to this one and can hold the prediction quick.

Ferguson was among the finest Lightweights of all time. Practically a pure pressure of inventive violence, Ferguson broke elite opposition with scary consistency, battering opponents into bloody pulps. Alas, that was a few years and plenty of unhealthy losses in the past. Chiesa, in the meantime, has additionally regarded slightly ineffective in his present shedding streak, however no less than he’s nonetheless in good athletic type and was getting overwhelmed up by prime expertise.

I don’t get why we’re reserving Ferguson anymore, not to mention at Welterweight. If he has to battle once more within the Octagon, he needs to be booked in opposition to another getting older, unranked Light-weight who’s barely on the roster. He’s by no means been large enough for 170-pounds, and Chiesa was ranked not that way back.

No person can be happier than me if I’m mistaken, however all logic suggests “The Maverick” dominates on the ground to an eventual strangle.

Prediction: Chiesa by way of submission

Girls’s Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern (-125) vs. Crazy Godinez (+105)

Finest Win for Dern? Virna Jandiroba For Goodinez? Tabatha RicciCurrent Streak: Dern has misplaced two straight, whereas Goodinez misplaced her final boutX-Issue: Dern took lots of injury in her final two fightsHow these two match up: I’m anticipating a little bit of chaos.

Dern’s strategy to preventing has ebbed and flowed, however her general problem stays the identical: she has the most effective jiu-jitsu within the division however has no method to persistently use it in opposition to prime competitors. She just lately returned to her boxing coach, Jason Parillo, so maybe that can assist shore up her fingers as soon as extra, however wrestling stays an space in want of growth.

Godinez has virtually the precise reverse problem. She’s fairly technical in every single place, however the Mexican expertise doesn’t actually have one standout problem. In her defeats, extra specialist opponents have been capable of pressure her to battle of their most popular ability set.

This can be a good match up, and I count on Godinez to win a majority of the exchanges. Is that sufficient to win the battle although? Dern is a lot extra harmful, a way more extreme ending menace. Godinez may do nice work for 4 minutes then find yourself preventing off deep submissions for the ultimate 60 seconds and nonetheless lose the spherical … if not her arm.

In the end, it takes a fairly elite, High 5 opponent to defeat Dern, and even then it’s not assured. Returning to Parillo was a mandatory step, however even with out that vote of confidence, Godinez is only a a lot much less threatening hitter than Amanda Lemos or Jessica Andrade.

Sooner or later, Dern’s jiu-jitsu excellence will come into play, and he or she’ll absolute take over when that occurs.

Prediction: Dern by way of determination

Light-weight: Joel Alvarez (-162) vs. Elves Brener (+135)

Finest Win for Alvarez? Thiago Moises For Brener? Guram KutateladzeCurrent Streak: Alvarez received his final bout, whereas Brener suffered his first UFC defeatX-Issue: Will Alvarez make weight?How these two match up: Inject this match up straight into my veins.

Alvarez doesn’t battle terribly typically, nevertheless it’s at all times must-watch stuff when he’s within the Octagon. The large Spanish Light-weight hits very onerous and strikes in inventive vogue, and he’s fairly wonderful at snatching submissions from failed takedown makes an attempt. What’s so enjoyable right here is that Brener can be a knockout artist and submissions fighter himself! Wrestling is the weakest side for each, whereas brutalizing their opposition in opportunistic moments is a shared power.

The large query to me on this battle is whether or not or not Alvarez can end his opponent. Early on, he’s such a monster due to that dimension benefit and his aggressive model. Brener is just not a defensive wizard or evasive fighter, which means he’s most likely going to throw down with Alvarez straight away and lose these exchanges.

Does he lose them badly sufficient to get stopped? If not, Brener is primed for a rally within the second half of the battle. Alvarez is accustomed to fast finishes, and there’s most likely a purpose he’s by no means received a call in his professional profession. The mixture of an enormous weight lower and pedal-to-the-floor preventing model signifies that Alvarez isn’t constructed to achieve the late rounds.

Brener is sturdy and harsh for all quarter-hour. If he makes it to the third, he’ll pay again Alvarez for each shot “El Fenómeno” landed early on, it’s only a query of constructing it that deep into the battle.

I believe the Brazilian can do it. He’s by no means been completed, and between the 2, he’s the higher wrestler. A short takedown may assist him survive a furry second or two, and as soon as the momentum does shift to his aspect, he’ll capitalize violently.

Prediction: Brener by way of knockout