Although many individuals anticipated him to be good straight away, Victor Wembanyama proved to be that and rather more in 12 months 1.
The generational prospect put collectively probably the greatest rookie seasons in latest reminiscence en path to a runaway NBA Rookie of the 12 months victory.
Having a burgeoning famous person in your roster is a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it offers you a fantastic constructing block to craft your staff round. However alternatively, it places strain in your group to begin successful as quickly as potential.
In any case, you don’t need to waste even a single season of a participant with GOAT potential.
So, the place do the San Antonio Spurs stand heading into Wembanyama’s sophomore season? Have they got the items essential to make a play-in push? Or will they fumble away one other season of Wembymania?
Wemby’s Sophomore Leap
It goes with out saying that Wembanyama will proceed to develop his sport throughout his sophomore season. And man, is he already actually darn good.
He completed 2023-24 ranked ninth in whole NBA in DRIP, which initiatives a participant’s contribution to his staff’s plus/minus per 100 possessions.
He made historical past alongside the best way, changing into the one participant (not simply rookie) to common at the least 20 factors, 3.5 blocks, 1.5 3-point area objectives and three.5 assists in the identical season since 1979-80.
If we take out 3s, steals and blocks to get a knowledge set that goes again all the best way to the 1950-51 season, Wemby is one in all solely three 7-footers to common 20 factors, 3.5 assists, 10.5 rebounds and shoot 79% from the foul line (Wilt Chamberlain fell approach brief on this class).
The opposite two have received MVPs: Joel Embiid (thrice) and Nikola Jokic (5 instances).
How excessive can Wembanyama climb up the leaderboard in 12 months 2? High seven? High 5? No. 1?
Even when he doesn’t get any higher than he was in his rookie 12 months, Wembanyama has already proven us what he can do when he will get the prospect to play subsequent to succesful veterans.
Adults within the Room
Anybody who was maintaining a tally of the Spurs final 12 months recollects the entire fiasco that was occurring at level guard. For the primary two-plus months of the season, they began Jeremy Sochan (extra on him in a bit), a participant who usually slots in at ahead, as their nominal level guard. This led to some fascinating lineups but additionally some miserable offensive possessions.
Finally, the Spurs swapped Sochan out for a standard level guard in Tre Jones. And whereas nobody will mistake Jones for an All-Star, simply having a serviceable flooring common subsequent to Wembanyama turned the Spurs from a bottom-feeder (5-29 by Jan. 3) right into a semi-respectable NBA staff (17-32 after Jan. 3).
When Jones and Wembanyama shared the ground (1,285 minutes), the Spurs had been much more than semi-respectable. They had been legit good, posting a web ranking of plus-4.3 in comparison with a minus-11.3 mark when both one or none was on the courtroom.
That’s what makes the one-year, 11-million greenback deal Chris Paul signed with the Spurs intriguing. Sure, Paul is now a 39-years-old level guard. However the elder statesman confirmed final 12 months that he can nonetheless be a constructive affect participant in a consolidated function.
In 26.4 minutes per sport, Paul averaged 9.2 factors, 6.8 assists and 1.2 steals whereas posting the very same DRIP (1.5) as Jones. He additionally confirmed that he can nonetheless run the pick-and-roll at a excessive stage (seventieth percentile pick-and-roll ball handler effectivity, per NBA.com), which can come in useful taking part in alongside Wembanyama.
Between Paul and Jones, the Spurs can guarantee (when they’re each wholesome) that they’ll have 48 minutes of sturdy level guard play each single night time.
The opposite huge veteran identify the Spurs added was Harrison Barnes as a part of a three-team sign-and-trade with the Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings. At a look, Barnes might appear to be a throwaway, somebody the Kings wanted to get off of with the intention to stage up their roster.
Nonetheless, I preserve that Barnes continues to be a starting-caliber participant on this league. Final season, Barnes positioned within the 72nd percentile in 3-point effectivity (38.7%) and the 61st percentile in 3-point quantity (6.1 3s per 75 possessions). He additionally confirmed proficiency as a closeout attacker, putting within the 78th percentile in true capturing on drives.
Barnes is a superb spacer on the 4. The issue is that he doesn’t provide you with a lot protection (twentieth percentile D-DRIP) or secondary rim safety (seventh percentile block price). When you’ve gotten a middle with vertical defensive limitations like Domantas Sabonis, these constraints received’t fly.
However when you’ve gotten an elite rim guardian like Wembanyama (99th percentile block price), these shortcomings are simply nice.
The Boys May Develop Up
With Wemby, Jones, Paul and Barnes, the Spurs have 4 gamers they will undoubtedly pencil in for giant minutes. But when the Spurs plan on making a play-in push, a few of their different younger gamers are going to must be prepared for a serious function.
The perfect wager in that regard is Devin Vassell, who was second on the staff in O-DRIP behind solely Wembanyama final season.
Vassell has all the time been a tantalizing offensive participant due to his means to attain on and off the ball – in the same vein however not almost to the identical diploma because the likes of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade.
And final 12 months was the most effective 12 months but for the blossoming bucket-getter, as Vassell posted a career-high in rim area aim share (68.2%), midrange share (45.2%), and general scoring effectivity (57.8% true capturing).
It wasn’t a fantastic defensive season for Vassell (fortieth percentile D-DRIP). However he does have good instruments for a capturing guard (6-foot-7 with a 6-10 wingspan), and we’ve seen previously that offense-first gamers can rise to the event on protection on extra aggressive groups.
The opposite on-ball/off-ball scoring ahead in San Antonio’s ranks is Keldon Johnson. In contrast to Vassell, 2023-24 wasn’t sort to Johnson. After beginning 204 of 207 video games from 2020-23, Johnson solely began 27 of 69 video games final 12 months.
Statistically talking, Johnson is a fair worse defender than Vassell (third percentile D-DRIP), and he’s did not rekindle his capturing stroke from 2021-22 (when he shot 39.8% from 3). Nonetheless, Johnson is a wrecking ball with regards to attending to the rim (seventy fifth percentile rim frequency) and the charity stripe (seventy fifth percentile free throw frequency).
Gamers like Johnson, who can get to the paint at will, are supremely precious. If he can simply get his 3-point groove again and provides higher buy-in on protection, Johnson might simply fill that fifth beginning spot subsequent to Paul, Vassell, Barnes and Wembanyama.
(Sidebar: I’m a lot larger on Vassell than I’m on Johnson at this level.)
I discussed the entire Sochan debacle earlier, and whereas Sochan at level guard was an utter failure, it additionally took away from what was an in any other case strong sophomore marketing campaign.
After the Spurs’ Jan. 2 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, Sochan was moved again to his pure place at ahead. Earlier than that change, the Spurs had a web ranking of -13.9 throughout Sochan’s minutes. However after the change, their web ranking went all the best way as much as a -2.3 in these spurts.
As I outlined in his rookie breakdown in 2023, Sochan has a talent set that’s similar to Corridor of Famer Dennis Rodman. He’s a defense-first ahead (72nd percentile D-DRIP), who loves crashing the offensive glass (72nd percentile offensive rebounding price), and presents some underrated passing chops.
If Sochan doesn’t find yourself being the fifth starter, he might function in the identical capability that Rodman did throughout his early days with the Detroit Pistons – as a supercharged Energizer Bunny off the bench.
The final participant I might see falling into that fifth starter function is 2024 NBA Draft fourth-overall decide Stephon Fortress. For individuals who aren’t acquainted with the nationwide champion’s sport, Fortress capabilities very equally to Anthony Black and Dyson Daniels – a defense-first guard/wing who’s adept at reducing and connective-tissue passing (however lacks a dependable exterior jumper).
The Spurs might select to begin Fortress over Johnson or Sochan to make sure that they’ve a powerful point-of-attack defender of their beginning lineup.
Outdoors of these 4, the three different fundamental younger guys price speaking about (Harrison Ingram is on a two-way, so we’ll go away him out of this for now) are Malaki Branham, Julian Champagnie and Blake Wesley.
The previous has demonstrated some good offensive flashes, whereas the latter two have executed the identical with protection, however none of them have proven sufficient for me to imagine they are often constant function gamers subsequent season.
The Backside Line
On paper, the Spurs have some good issues going for them. They’ve a participant who doubtless will land on an All-NBA staff subsequent 12 months, a few dependable veterans, and younger gamers who might expertise leaps that permit them to tackle a much bigger function inside the staff.
However in addition they have some main obstacles to beat in the event that they plan on making a play-in push. First, the Western Convention is as much as its typical normal, with all however two groups (the Utah Jazz and Portland Path Blazers) coming into the season with expectations of constructing the playoffs.
Second, the Spurs are counting on a number of younger gamers, and if issues don’t break their approach, they may very well be operating very shallow when it comes to playoff-caliber gamers.
I belief Vassell to step up alongside Jones, Paul, Barnes and Wembanyama. However exterior of him, the staff will want three of Johnson, Sochan, Fortress, Branham, Champagnie and Wesley (I wasn’t proud of what I noticed from Zach Collins final 12 months) to play like rotation-level gamers in the event that they need to area at the least eight high quality gamers of their night-to-night rotation.
Lastly, regardless of how issues go together with their younger gamers, this Spurs staff might be sorely missing in spacing. Jones, Paul, Wembanyama, Sochan, Fortress, Champagnie and Wesley are all below-average spacers. That’s over half of their projected 10/11-man rotation. As a common rule, it’s actually laborious to win on this league if you find yourself trotting out a couple of or two below-average shooters without delay.
General, I believe the Spurs might be similar to final 12 months’s Houston Rockets. The strikes they made so as to add expertise to their ranks will convey them nearer to the play-in. However in the end, their reliance on unproven youth, lack of spacing, and presence on the harder aspect of the bracket will hold them simply wanting the event.
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