The Chicago Bears have landed the highest decide within the 2024 NFL draft. The Bears obtained their choice from the Carolina Panthers in an offseason commerce that gave the Panthers the primary decide within the 2023 draft. And the Panthers misplaced their 14th recreation of the season in Week 17, giving Chicago the No. 1 spot for April.
However how will the remainder of the order shake out? We projected all 32 slots with ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI). Each week in the course of the season, the FPI initiatives the draft order by simulating the rest of the season 10,000 instances. Sport chances are based mostly largely on the mannequin’s rankings for particular person groups along with recreation areas. The order is predicated on the information the mannequin believes the groups could have after 17 video games and every crew’s common draft place within the simulations.
There have already got been three trades involving first-round picks for April’s draft. The Houston Texans personal the Cleveland Browns’ decide, whereas the Arizona Cardinals are additionally in line to have two choices in Spherical 1. The 2024 decide the Inexperienced Bay Packers obtained from the New York Jets of their offseason commerce for Aaron Rodgers will likely be a second-round choice, not a first-rounder, as a result of Rodgers (who’s out with a torn Achilles) won’t play 65% of the crew’s snaps this season.
Take a look at the complete 1-32 projection for the 2024 NFL draft (up to date Jan. 1):
Common draft place: 1.0FPI probability to earn No. 1 decide: 100%
Common draft place: 2.4FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 99.9%
Common draft place: 3.2FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 99.9%
Common draft place: 4.4FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 68.4%
Common draft place: 4.8FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 85.1%
Common draft place: 6.0FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 28.4percentFPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 99.9%
Common draft place: 6.5FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 17.8percentFPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 99.9%
Common draft place: 8.6FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 0.2percentFPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 91.8%
Common draft place: 10.1FPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 62.3%
Common draft place: 10.7FPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 70.3%
Common draft place: 11.3FPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 38.5%
Common draft place: 11.6FPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 30.8%
Common draft place: 14.2FPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 0.1%
Common draft place: 15.1FPI probability to earn top-10 decide: 6.2%
Common draft place: 16.2
Common draft place: 16.9
Common draft place: 18.0
Common draft place: 18.6
Common draft place: 19.2
Common draft place: 19.5
Common draft place: 19.8
Common draft place: 22.8
Common draft place: 23.4
Common draft place: 25.3
Common draft place: 25.4
Common draft place: 26.0
Common draft place: 26.0
Common draft place: 26.1
Common draft place: 26.5
Common draft place: 27.7
Common draft place: 30.4
Common draft place: 30.5
