Soccer groups across the SEC have begun reporting for follow, as preparation begins for a brand new period within the convention, one which shall be fascinating, thrilling, compelling …
And, maybe, an entire mess. Begin bracing your self.
May the very best staff within the convention miss out fully on enjoying for the championship? Completely.
Is it doable some merely above-average groups will go 7-1, possibly even unbeaten? Certainly, very doable.
Will there be a three-way tie for first place, or no less than a multiple-team tie for second place, with who performs within the SEC championship going to second, third or fourth tiebreakers? Once more, sure, and sure. Give you your individual chaos state of affairs, and it most likely can’t be dominated out.
That is what you get with megaconferences. That is what you get with 16 groups however solely an eight-game schedule, whereby most of the prime groups received’t play one another. And, by the best way, a nine-game schedule would assist solely a bit. Anytime you’ve this many groups with out no less than one sport between them throughout the season, you mainly guarantee a jumbled mess of standings, together with on the prime.
That’s why the SEC workplace and athletic administrators are taking so lengthy to finalize the tiebreaker course of. As we reported a few weeks in the past, they received’t be doing something dramatic — like utilizing nonconference data or margin of victory or rankings — and can lean on extra components like head-to-head and document in opposition to widespread opponents. They wish to get the tiebreakers as proper as they’ll as a result of there’s likelihood they’ll want them.
GO DEEPER
What may, and what will not, be SEC soccer tiebreakers
Even then, the possibilities are middling at finest that the ultimate standings will precisely painting how good every staff is within the convention.
Begin with Georgia. The clear favourite based mostly on the vote at SEC media days, and maybe the No. 1 staff when the nationwide polls come out. If all issues have been equal in scheduling, I’d additionally choose the Bulldogs to win the convention. However all issues usually are not equal in scheduling: Kirby Sensible’s staff has to play in any respect three groups picked to complete second by way of fourth: Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss.
2024 FOOTBALL MEDIA POLL @GeorgiaFootball (🏆), @TexasFootball predicted to satisfy in 2024 #SECChampionship by a vote of the media protecting #SECMD24
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— Southeastern Convention (@SEC) July 19, 2024
Let’s say Georgia nonetheless finds a strategy to go 7-1 within the convention. That just about actually could be sufficient to get it within the School Soccer Playoff, assuming it doesn’t lose a couple of nonconference sport. However it would simply go away room for 2 others to qualify for the SEC championship, and possibly not one of many presumed favorites.
LSU, fifth within the preseason media vote, will get its three hardest opponents on paper at dwelling: Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma. The highway video games are Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina and Arkansas. There’s a path to 7-1 and even 8-0 there.
Missouri, coming off a breakout season, has to go to Alabama, however in any other case its hardest sport on paper is at Texas A&M. Its subsequent hardest video games would appear to be Oklahoma and Auburn, each video games at dwelling.
It’s possible you’ll discover that neither LSU nor Missouri has to play Georgia or Texas, and solely Missouri will get Alabama. Actually, quite a lot of the projected prime groups don’t play one another. Alabama and Texas don’t play. Neither do Ole Miss and Texas or Alabama and Ole Miss.
So these are a few of the head-to-head tiebreakers off the desk for this season. And if Tennessee manages to be concerned within the dialogue, it would have performed Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma, however not Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri …
So, yeah, you’ll be able to see the chaos coming. Thank goodness, after all, for the expanded 12-team discipline, which ought to — may — reduce the affect of this.
However solely a bit of bit.
It’s a giant deal who truly wins the SEC championship sport. That staff will get a bye into the quarterfinals, a complete of three weeks off after enjoying in Atlanta and a matchup with the winner of the 8-versus-9 sport.
From there, it’s as much as the Playoff committee to determine which SEC groups make the sphere. And that’s the place jumbled standings and unequal scheduling may bleed into nationwide that means.
May Brian Kelly and LSU contend for the SEC title and/or a School Soccer Playoff berth? (Brett Patzke / USA As we speak)
The working assumption is the loser of the SEC championship sport remains to be a shoo-in, having been adequate to be one of many convention’s prime two groups. However what in the event that they’re not? One want solely look at a few of the schedules above to provide you with believable situations: LSU going 7-1 in convention however dropping its opener to Southern California and getting creamed within the SEC title sport; Missouri getting into 7-1, the one loss a decisive one at Alabama, then additionally getting overwhelmed badly by its opponent within the SEC championship. Would 11-2 in that state of affairs, if there aren’t many high quality wins, nonetheless be sufficient — particularly if different SEC groups are solely 10-2 however performed more durable schedules?
Sorry to select on LSU and Missouri. The packages merely present examples for a higher level, and we thanks for taking part in alongside.
And sure, the problem of schedules as they appear now are sometimes not how they appear after the season. Groups are higher and worse than anticipated.
One other vital caveat: The season might play out in completely clear vogue. The 2 clear finest groups within the SEC could also be mirrored within the standings. Or a tie for first or second place could also be cleanly damaged by way of the luck of an obtainable head-to-head tiebreaker.
That is all new, in no way predictable, and watching it play out needs to be enjoyable.
Particularly in the event you love chaos. Since you very properly might get that.
(Prime photograph of Texas coach Steve Sarkisian: Brett Patzke / USA As we speak)
