Solak spins Week 13 forward: Panic levels for the Steelers, Eagles, Colts, Ravens and Lions

Week 13 is within the books. It was a chippy one! There was loads of — because the broadcasters would say — pushing and shoving in Patriots-Giants, Jaguars-Titans and Steelers-Payments. Because the climate will get colder and playoff hopes dwindle, so the skirmishes start. Simply know that if any of you hit my editors late, I will be coming over with dangerous intentions.

Each Tuesday, I will spin the earlier week of NFL motion ahead, what the largest storylines imply and what comes subsequent. We’ll search measured reactions to everybody’s overreactions, have a good time the thrilling stuff that no one is appreciating and spotlight what you might need missed.

There will probably be movie. There will probably be stats (a complete part of them). And there will probably be enjoyable.

Soar to a piece:Huge Factor: Panic meter for 5 teamsSecond Take: It is OK for the Payments to runMailbag: Answering questions from … youNext Ben Stats: Wild Week 13 stats

The Huge Factor: Panic meter

Each week, this column will kick off with one extensive take a look at a key sport, participant or development from the earlier slate of NFL motion. What does it imply for the remainder of the season? This week, we’re 5 playoff contenders to gauge how panicked they need to be about latest skids.

Panic meter: DEFCON 1,000,000

(Sure, I perceive that the larger DEFCON numbers are literally much less extreme. “DEFCON 1” simply would not sound nearly as good.)

The Steelers’ 2025 offseason didn’t work. They pursued Aaron Rodgers within the perception that the 41-year-old quarterback had one other yr of championship-caliber play in him, and he clearly would not. They swapped security Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey within the perception that Ramsey may nonetheless play cornerback and provides them unprecedented versatility within the defensive backfield, and he could not and hasn’t. They prolonged T.J. Watt within the perception that the 30-year-old edge rusher’s sport would age nicely, and it hasn’t. They flipped George Pickens for DK Metcalf within the perception that Pickens’ behavioral complications weren’t value his manufacturing at receiver, which they might backfill with Metcalf, they usually have been flawed.

It’s obnoxious to say that all of us noticed this coming, however usually talking, we did. Watt’s explosiveness tailed off by means of the 2024 season earlier than his harm and has dropped once more this yr. His get-off was 0.75 seconds in 2022, then 0.79 in 2023, 0.83 in 2024 and now 0.87 in 2025. That full tenth of a second issues for a pace rusher similar to Watt, who has delivered a stress charge beneath 10% in every of the previous two seasons.

With a deep and younger group of edge rushers behind him, the Steelers have been well-positioned to get out a yr early slightly than a yr late. However transferring on from Watt did not match their timeline, so he was prolonged at a $41 million yearly — larger than the common annual worth of Myles Garrett’s contract. Garrett has 19 sacks this season; Watt has seven.

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Watt is now not a blue-chipper, and with Ramsey relegated to security to cover his diminishing athleticism, there aren’t any top-tier gamers left on Pittsburgh’s protection. Due to all of the veteran contracts, the Steelers’ protection is second in cap spending however twentieth in success charge. The shortage of staff pace kills them in explosive play charge, too; they’re twenty sixth in surrendering each explosive passes and explosive runs.

There are schematic frustrations as nicely, because the Steelers’ run protection is a travesty of errors alongside the line of defense and at linebacker. Buffalo ran for 249 yards on Pittsburgh on Sunday within the absence of first-round defensive deal with Derrick Harmon (knee); it was probably the most dashing yardage surrendered by the Steelers at house since 1975. They can not play an excessive amount of zone protection, both — it is arduous to cover these linebackers.

The offensive points are related however siloed in a single participant: Rodgers. No two methods round it, Rodgers is among the worst beginning quarterbacks within the league. He can’t drive the soccer however hates to throw interceptable balls, so he flutters passes on the fringe of his receivers’ vary. He additionally hates getting hit, so he eliminates the ball sooner than virtually some other passer, which negates his elite post-snap processing. As soon as the premier magician in extending performs and throwing on the transfer, Rodgers is now one of many worst QBs on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds. Solely Cam Ward, Joe Flacco and Jaxson Dart have worse success charges on such performs.

Recreation planning for Rodgers and the Steelers is extraordinarily straightforward. High corners journey with Metcalf (Christian Benford did this week, and DJ Turner II did two weeks earlier than) and press him on the line, disrupting the timing of Rodgers’ major quick-game goal. Rodgers will both throw up a prayer to an uninspiring downfield choice (Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson) or examine right down to working backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. If he is fortunate, it’s going to be tight finish Darnell Washington.

A number of instances per sport, a kind of after-the-catch athletes will get an enormous achieve. Warren is fast and arduous to deal with; Washington is gigantic and arduous to deal with. Amazingly, 66.4% of Rodgers’ passing yards have come after the catch, which is second solely to 2011 A.J. Feeley previously 15 years. That is 713 quarterbacking seasons value of pattern!

That is fully untenable. Rodgers’ 5.7 air yards per try is 703rd out of these 713 seasons; his minus-3.5 air yards to the sticks is 705th. Rodgers can’t and won’t throw the soccer downfield but stays in complete management of the offense on the line of scrimmage and usually checks out of runs and into passes. The passing sport is totally insufficient. This, like each different facet of the Steelers’ season, was foreseeable.

The Steelers’ short-term outlook is bleak. Their Week 14 sport towards the Ravens is winnable, however it’s on the highway towards a bodily and ascending protection. If Pittsburgh loses, it’s going to slip beneath .500 and lose management of the AFC North, which is its solely path into the playoffs.

The long-term outlook is bleaker. There is no such thing as a quarterback of the longer term on the roster, and the remainder of the cap sheet is loaded with dangerous contracts. Metcalf is due $31 million subsequent yr, Watt is due $42 million, and Ramsey is due $17.9 million. The Steelers must get well from their 2025 spending spree, they usually’ll possible don’t have any {hardware} — not even a division championship — to indicate for it.

The proof that Mike Tomlin is the chief to drag them from this spiral is diminishing quickly. Whereas I stay assured that Tomlin is an efficient coach (take a look at how lots of the Steelers’ younger gamers or veterans on small contracts are optimistic contributors), it is clear that his overarching organizational philosophy wants modernization. If there ever was an offseason to commerce Tomlin, rip the roster right down to the studs and begin to rebuild, it is this one.

Panic meter: It is the start of the top

I can clarify the Lions’ latest losses fairly simply. The Lions went 0-for-3 on fourth down of their Thanksgiving loss, whereas the Packers went 2-for-2 (with some officiating help besides). Within the loss in Philadelphia, the Lions have been 0-for-5 on fourth down. Within the loss to J.J. McCarthy (the Lions actually misplaced to J.J. McCarthy) and the Vikings, they have been 1-for-3 within the purple zone, and the Vikings bought 17 factors off three brief fields.

The Lions have been dropping in high-leverage moments these days. However these are the form of moments wherein losses develop into wins ought to one little factor break one other manner. I belief Dan Campbell and a veteran Lions staff to endure that valley and emerge by means of the opposite aspect slightly luckier.

With that mentioned, the Lions are 7-5, and that’s motive for panic. Homefield benefit is a gigantic deal for Detroit due to its quarterback. Jared Goff, a California native with small fingers, doesn’t play nicely in chilly climate underneath the celebs. Over his profession, Goff has a 68.2% completion proportion indoors, however that drops to 57.4% when taking part in outside in temperatures beneath 50 levels. His touchdown-to-interception ratio falls from 3.5 to 1.8, and his dropback success charge falls from 49.8% to 40.5%.

Lions followers do not like once I reference this stat as a result of Goff has been higher throughout his Lions tenure when outside and within the chilly relative to how he carried out with the Rams. That is solely barely true. He has a 42.7% success charge with the Lions in these spots, versus 39.2% with the Rams. He has a 60.3% completion charge with the Lions, versus 54.8% with the Rams. He has been slightly higher, however the problem was nonetheless clear and apparent towards the Eagles on “Sunday Evening Soccer” in Week 11. His grip on the ball falters, and his accuracy nosedives.

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The Lions have performed all however one in all their latest playoff video games at house, and the lone highway sport was in balmy Santa Clara, California. With solely an 8% likelihood to win their division, in line with ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index projections, the Lions will possible should journey by means of the postseason. Inexperienced Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia and even Seattle are open-air stadiums in chilly climates. It is a brutal draw for Goff’s specific weaknesses.

It would not cease there. Goff’s different main weak spot — his lack of pocket escapability — has been hammered of late. The Lions’ inside offensive line is markedly worse this season than it was in Goff’s earlier seasons. Rookie proper guard Tate Ratledge has changed Kevin Zeitler with common play, whereas Graham Glasgow has didn’t fill Frank Ragnow’s huge sneakers at heart. The Lions tried to get Ragnow again, however he failed his bodily. Left guard Christian Mahogany went down for the season with an harm, and Kayode Awosika has struggled in reduction. Unhealthy inside safety is a matter for each quarterback however is double damaging for a quarterback who lacks mobility. Goff has to hold within the pocket, and as such, he is getting hit — rather a lot.

The truth is, Goff has been hit on 20.2% of his dropbacks, simply the best of his Lions tenure. It is beneath solely his disastrous 2016 rookie season earlier than Sean McVay arrived in Los Angeles to rescue his profession. These hits accumulate on Goff, who deserves credit score for his toughness. However he is not Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen. He is not constructed to maintain this stage of harm, and his inside clock will speed up on lengthy and late downs when he sees blitz appears to be like.

The Lions’ offensive line was among the many league’s finest in Goff’s first few years in Detroit, however these days are behind us. In addition to the inside expertise drain, left deal with Taylor Decker is displaying indicators of his age, too. With out elite run blocking, Detroit faces extra third-and-longs. With out elite go safety, Goff struggles extra on these downs. The offense loses an edge. It isn’t a foul unit, however it is not elite anymore.

The protection can also be working into points. Beneath new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, the Lions stay dedicated to taking part in man protection at above-average charges and on high-leverage downs. The Lions have run man protection on 44.6% of their defensive snaps, simply probably the most within the league. On late downs, they’re at 68.7% (once more, probably the most). Within the purple zone, they’re at 69.0% (third most).

Being predictable is rarely good. The Packers shredded the Lions on late downs and within the purple zone with man-beating ideas, and the Lions’ incapability to go off rub routes created straightforward touchdowns for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. However the problem is not simply schematic; it is also personnel. For as a lot because the Lions like cornerback Amik Robertson’s disposition and management, he struggles with dimension and pace, as evidenced by the lengthy Christian Watson landing this previous Thursday. And Detroit invested a 2024 first-round decide in Terrion Arnold within the hopes he can be a shutdown CB1, and he merely hasn’t been. Now he is on the shelf with season-ending shoulder surgical procedure, and the depth behind Robertson and D.J. Reed will probably be sorely examined.

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Detroit would not have the personnel to run the coverages it needs to run. Security Kerby Joseph will come again from his knee harm finally, and the Lions are nonetheless fourth finest in success charge when taking part in man protection. However playoff opponents can have deep rosters of go catchers (as was the case with the Packers), aggressive quarterbacks and exact playcalling. It is arduous for Detroit to pivot to taking part in zone, as its base packages put too many linebackers on the sector. The Lions must stay on this risky defensive type, however I am unsure their corners have three dominant video games towards the Packers, Seahawks and Rams in them.

It isn’t honest to say that the Lions’ window has closed. The identical gamers who created the window — Goff, working again Jahmyr Gibbs, left deal with Penei Sewell, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive deal with Alim McNeill and Joseph — are nonetheless there. However the Lions’ window is formally transitioning from an inexpensive roster to an costly one, and the thinning margins are evident. GM Brad Holmes must hit on gamers in these subsequent couple of drafts — go rusher, inside offensive line, cornerback — to be able to maintain the ship afloat as at the moment constructed. In any other case, a tender roster reset will probably be required.

Panic meter: One week away from all-out mayhem

The Colts are on the cliff’s edge.

Let’s rewind the clock a month. It is Sunday, Nov. 2. The Colts simply suffered their second loss 27-20 to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It was a ridiculous sport. The Colts’ offense moved the ball at will however turned it over 5 instances (and particular groups contributed a sixth giveaway). Like most groups that hand over the ball six instances, the Colts misplaced. Nothing to fret about. Nothing to see right here.

Two days later on the commerce deadline, common supervisor Chris Ballard dealt two first-round picks and receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. Heck yeah. The AFC is gettable. The Colts had discovered the subsequent Baker Mayfield in Daniel Jones, who appears to be like like a renewed man in Shane Steichen’s offense. After an uncharacteristically aggressive offseason of free agent acquisitions (Charvarius Ward, Cam Bynum), why not make an all-in commerce and assault the chance this season? Positive, the value is excessive. Positive, this all however locks them into Jones as their QB for the subsequent three years. However a Lombardi Trophy is in sight.

Since that day, the Colts are 1-2, with solely an time beyond regulation win towards the Falcons of their pocket. The clock has struck midnight on Jones, who has seen his play underneath stress completely regress again to his Giants days. A fractured fibula throughout apply earlier than the Week 12 sport towards the Chiefs definitely hasn’t helped. However the Colts’ offensive line, which was elite by means of the primary half of the season, has bottomed out. High edge dashing duos in Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Houston have discovered success working by means of Indianapolis’ deal with pair of Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith. Heart Tanor Bortolini, an asset within the working sport, can also be getting uncovered in go safety.

The Colts are additionally feeling warmth from their AFC South rivals. When Ballard made the commerce for Gardner, the Colts had a 3½-game lead on the two-time defending AFC South champion Texans, who have been 3-5. Houston has since gained 4 straight, together with its Week 13 victory over the Colts, to achieve 7-5. It is just one sport again from Indianapolis and at the moment owns the tiebreaker. Equally, the Jaguars have been 5-3 on the time of the commerce — 1½ video games behind the Colts. Jacksonville has gone 3-1, dropping solely to the Texans, and now shares the identical 8-4 report as Indianapolis, with their first head-to-head sport approaching.

Only a nightmare roll of the cube proper after the Colts went all-in. A QB harm, two divisional rivals peaking and a few shut losses — and the cherry on high is Gardner being out a number of weeks due to a calf pressure. He will not go on injured reserve (there’s little level this late within the season), however the hope is that he is again in the course of the common season. That’s to say: not a assure.

When groups attain true contending standing with out elite quarterbacks, their basis tends to be very fragile. A lot has coalesced for these squads to excel with an imperfect quarterback that, if anybody joint in the home of playing cards wiggles, the complete operation falls. We will see this in Philadelphia, which collapsed in 2023, excelled in 2024 and is on the breaking point once more in 2025. Take into consideration how briskly the 2024 Vikings fell aside underneath Sam Darnold, and even the 2024 Lions with Jared Goff, or the injury-riddled 2025 Buccaneers with September MVP Baker Mayfield. When it is good, it is good. When it is dangerous, it is dangerous.

The excellent news for the Colts is that they constructed an enormous cushion. Their 7-2 begin has insulated them throughout this fall to the place they’re nonetheless in a first-place tie with the Jaguars. Jacksonville is much from an ideal staff, and even in its latest surge, it has eked out time beyond regulation wins over the Raiders and Cardinals. The Jaguars are gettable.

Whereas the Colts have been by no means going to maintain their early-season historic scoring tempo, inevitable regression would not erase the ceiling altogether. The Colts’ offense has been higher than some other offense within the AFC for a big stretch of this season. They have not had any main harm absences on that aspect of the ball, both — solely Jones is hampered. It is affordable to anticipate the Colts’ offense to bounce again to a decent stage. I nonetheless belief it greater than I belief the offenses of Denver, Baltimore, Houston and Jacksonville.

However that perception has a one-week shelf life. Battle towards Jacksonville’s protection — a fancy group with a red-hot go rusher in Josh Hines-Allen — and the division would possibly slip completely out of attain. The offense is barely half the battle. The Colts’ protection must put forth a successful effort with out Gardner and DeForest Buckner, who remains to be on injured reserve due to a neck harm.

Lose to the Jaguars, and the Gardner commerce would possibly finally go down as one of many worst midseason trades in NFL historical past. Beat the Jaguars, and the snowball stops rolling down the mountain simply earlier than it turns into an avalanche. No huge stakes or something!

Panic meter: Reasonable to extreme

Let’s begin with the principle motive to not panic.

In Week 13, quarterback Lamar Jackson missed a walkthrough apply due to a toe harm. The earlier week, he missed two consecutive practices due to an ankle harm. The week earlier than that, he missed a apply due to knee soreness. All of this got here after lacking three video games (over 4 weeks) due to a hamstring harm.

Jackson is clearly not wholesome. In his 5 video games again from harm, he has run for 14, 36, 10, 11 and 27 yards — a mean of 19.6 yards per sport. His profession common earlier than this season was 59.9 yards per sport.

Gamers do not magically develop into more healthy in Week 14. Soccer is a brutal sport, and every week of restoration hardly ever accounts for gathered put on on the physique, particularly this late within the season. It’s unreasonable to anticipate Jackson to out of the blue develop into extra wholesome and harmful as a runner. Ought to their season crumble right into a 9-8 end with no postseason berth, the 2025 Ravens can be removed from the primary playoff-caliber staff to overlook the dance due to their quarterback’s well being.

However it isn’t unattainable that he will get more healthy the additional he will get from the hamstring harm. Once more: not going, however not unattainable. A more healthy Jackson mitigates a few of the offensive line points, because the Ravens’ younger trench gamers — left guard Andrew Vorhees, proper guard Daniel Faalele and proper deal with Roger Rosengarten — have all underwhelmed this season. Vorhees rotated with third-round rookie Emery Jones Jr. at left guard this previous week towards the Bengals. Jones is lastly wholesome, however a third-round rookie nonetheless on a studying curve is just not precisely elite reinforcement.

The offensive line is not the one space wherein inside promotions and improvement have failed the Ravens. Baltimore’s go catchers merely usually are not adequate for a postseason run. Zay Flowers — the Ravens’ nominal No. 1 — is proficient. However he isn’t a real field-tipping risk who calls for defensive consideration. Flowers has 340 yards after the catch on the season however solely 26 YAC over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. He is not creating yardage a lot as he is getting what he is anticipated to get.

Flowers can be a No. 2 receiver for many groups, however the larger problem in Baltimore is depth. Rashod Bateman, whom the Ravens prolonged on a three-year deal this offseason, has 0.8 yards per route run this season. He has been about as productive as Kalif Raymond, Tyler Lockett, Jamari Thrash and Jahan Dotson. Behind Bateman are DeAndre Hopkins (who has been high-quality as a job participant) and Devontez Walker (who has not been the deep risk the Ravens hoped he would grow to be).

Neither Bateman nor Flowers scare opposing defenses or problem one-on-one protection, and the identical is true for the Ravens’ tight ends. Mark Andrews was as soon as that participant, however age has sapped his explosiveness. This season, Andrews is averaging 6.4 yards per goal and 9.0 yards per reception; his earlier profession lows have been 7.5 and 11.6, respectively. Working mate Isaiah Seemingly, from whom the Ravens have been hoping for an emergence, stays an explosive participant however doesn’t shoulder excessive quantity as a go catcher.

As has usually been the case when the Ravens made postseason appearances previously, they are not harmful sufficient within the dropback passing sport. Ought to they fall behind, as they did towards the Bengals on Thursday evening, they cannot throw their manner again into competition. It was already arduous when Jackson may scramble and create — now that he is restricted, the toothlessness of their offense is revealed.

The scariest non-Jackson participant final season was Derrick Henry, after all, however Henry has misplaced a step. By NFL Subsequent Gen Stats monitoring, Henry is averaging 11.27 mph this season and has cleared 15 mph on 8.8% of his performs. Final season, he was at 11.52 mph, and he was over 15 mph 11.7% of the time. Watch him, and also you see a participant who can nonetheless devastate defenses with a runway, however he is entering into that runway rather less usually.

The Ravens’ offense has taken a step again throughout the board. With no improvement or significant additions at go catcher, one other yr of attrition on Henry and poor play on the offensive line, the Ravens are arduous to take significantly as 2025 contenders at the same time as their protection continues to shine. A out of the blue wholesome Jackson would colour within the traces some however not sufficient to beat a legit area of AFC defenses. Jackson will bounce again subsequent season as he heals, however work is required to bolster the offense in 2026 and past.

Panic meter: We have been right here earlier than (unclear if that is truly excellent news)

Let’s drive a contrived comparability between this season and the Eagles’ 2023 season.

By 12 weeks in 2023, the Eagles have been 10-1. Their solely loss (I will provide you with a billion {dollars} if you understand this off the highest of your head) was to the Zach Wilson-led Jets. That they had simply overwhelmed the Payments and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks.

However even at 10-1, all of us knew there was some nonsense. Beneath new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, the Eagles had a top-10 offense by most metrics (EPA per play, success charge, factors per drive), however the fan base was livid with him because the Eagles’ passing sport ran extraordinarily cold and warm. The faculty-inspired offense was heavy on unfold formations, RPOs and QB runs — too easy, and blitzes confounded everybody from Johnson to younger quarterback Jalen Hurts.

The defensive numbers have been way more damning: twenty fifth in defensive EPA per play, twenty sixth in factors per drive allowed and twenty sixth in explosive play charge surrendered. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai was undoubtedly struggling, and the Eagles finally handed playcalling over to defensive analyst Matt Patricia. The Eagles misplaced 5 of their final six video games to complete second within the NFC East and bought walloped 32-9 by the Bucs within the wild-card spherical.

We’re by means of 13 weeks in 2025. The Eagles are 8-4, which is a reasonably correct reflection of the staff. The defensive numbers are good this time — ninth in each EPA per play and factors per drive allowed — although there are some apparent issues at No. 2 cornerback and towards the run. It is the offensive numbers which might be clearly problematic. The Eagles are twenty third in factors per drive and twenty seventh in offensive success charge. The one offenses which might be worse are the Jets, Vikings, Raiders, Titans and Browns.

The final time the Eagles have been right here, they made a December playcalling change. It was on the opposite aspect of the ball, and it helped nothing. Apparently, no December playcalling change will come this season, as head coach Nick Sirianni voiced his confidence in first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo after the Eagles’ Black Friday loss to the Bears. I would wager this vote of confidence has much less to do with Patullo and extra to do with the fruitless 2023 swap. A playcalling change this late within the season is just too little, too late.

As a result of the Eagles have been on this gap in 2023 after which gained the Tremendous Bowl the very subsequent season, it is unwise to panic too arduous. The Eagles can say with confidence one thing the Colts and Lions cannot say: They’ve a championship formulation with their present quarterback. To get well it, the Eagles want an infusion of creativity on the offensive teaching workers (and large enchancment throughout the offensive line, which has regressed in well being and efficiency this season), however this 2025 downswing doesn’t condemn the offense or the staff to dying. We all know it could possibly emerge from this.

However within the brief time period, it’s unattainable to rank the Eagles among the many high tier of NFC contenders. The offense is much too feeble. The philosophy because the starting of 2024 was to keep away from turnovers, however the second the Eagles get a foul bounce on a fumble — as they’ve previously two video games towards the Cowboys and Bears (three fumbles misplaced) — they don’t have any dropback passing sport to erase the deficit. The playcalling fails to fabricate straightforward touches for Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown — two of the league’s finest playmakers — in a way that’s completely impermissible. With out proper deal with Lane Johnson, Hurts doesn’t belief his pockets. He additionally is not working almost as a lot this season, which is clearly a conscientious alternative between him and/or the teaching workers. There is no such thing as a juice and no reduction coming across the nook.

The Eagles would possibly win a playoff sport on the again of an awesome defensive efficiency. However it’s unattainable to rank them subsequent to the Rams, Seahawks and Packers as the category of the NFC. I feel they’re beneath the 49ers and Bears as nicely. Till new blood joins the offensive teaching workers, the Eagles can’t be taken significantly — and that will not occur instantly. Panic for 2025 is actual. Panic for 2026 and past is not mandatory.

Second Take: It is OK for the Payments to be a run-first staff

ESPN’s “First Take” is understood for, nicely, offering the primary tackle issues — the moment reactions. Second Take is just not a spot for immediate reactions however slightly the place I will let the mud settle earlier than taking maybe a little bit of a contrarian view.

Buffalo Payments quarterback Josh Allen didn’t throw the soccer downfield on Sunday.

Actually. He had zero makes an attempt 20-plus yards downfield. In 136 video games throughout Allen’s profession, solely six have come with out a go 20-plus yards downfield. 4 of these six video games have come this season.

Because the deep ball vanishes from Allen’s sport, his general air yards per try drops in live performance. Allen’s 7.3 air yards per try is a brand new profession low, and if that quantity holds, it’s going to be the eighth season in a row wherein Allen’s common depth of goal has dropped from the earlier season, encompassing yearly of his profession. (To be honest, rookie Josh Allen was hucking that factor. A lower was inevitable.)

Even in that backdrop, this sport towards the Steelers stands out. Allen averaged 1.6 air yards per try, virtually half the gap of his earlier single-game low (3.1). There have been solely 5 video games previously 15 NFL seasons with an air yards per try beneath 2.0 yards.

It is clearly not good to have the complete passing sport stay inside 10 yards of the road of scrimmage. No one is in Orchard Park, New York, celebrating a completely realized offensive sport plan that mirrored the Payments’ identification and demonstrated their prowess as an AFC contender.

Nevertheless … this was a really encouraging sport for the Payments’ offense! It was an indication of progress from offensive coordinator Joe Brady! It is the model of the offense that may truly win a Tremendous Bowl!

Let’s begin with the apparent: Each beginning tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, have been out. Simply final week towards the Texans, we noticed what would occur if Allen tried to hold within the pocket for any time frame, and that was with each beginning tackles taking part in (albeit Brown was clearly harm). In opposition to the Steelers, whose defensive power is the sting rush, it was necessary to eliminate the ball rapidly. Simply because it was the shallowest depth of goal of Allen’s profession, it was his fifth quickest in time to throw at 2.46 seconds.

How Buffalo removed the ball rapidly was fascinating. Not like the sport towards Houston, when Allen spent a lot of his time within the gun, Brady put Allen underneath heart on 37% of his dropbacks — a brand new excessive this season. The Payments faked a give on 37% of Allen’s dropbacks, as nicely (second highest). Within the first quarter, Allen had no under-center dropbacks. However by the second quarter, the under-center, play-action pretend turned the featured cog of the offense, and the passing sport awakened.

Why? As a result of the Payments have been working the ball in dominant trend. James Cook dinner III ended the day with 32 carries for 144 yards. Ray Davis contributed one other 62 yards on 9 carries. Allen ran it eight extra instances for 38 yards. It’s perplexing to say a couple of staff using the reigning MVP at quarterback, however the Payments’ offense has been remarkably higher this season when it commits to the bottom sport.

Think about the Payments’ irritating losses this season. In opposition to the Falcons, who sported one of many league’s worst run defenses on the time, the Payments referred to as passes on 63% of their snaps. That wasn’t a perform of the sport script, both — they’d a go charge over expectation of three.6%, per Subsequent Gen Stats. In opposition to the Dolphins in Week 10, the Payments have been 71% go, 29% run — an enormous skew. Once more, adjusting for sport script, the Payments had an enormous go charge over expectation of plus-5.5%.

The Payments’ earlier single-game excessive for run charge over expectation was plus-4.6%. In opposition to the Steelers, it was plus-20.4%. You’d assume such an strategy is protecting Allen, the staff’s Lamborghini, parked within the storage. I feel it is the Payments lastly recognizing that they’ve two Lamborghinis.

Over the previous two seasons, the Payments’ working sport has proven indicators of Eagles- or Ravens-esque dominance because of a proficient offensive line led by an awesome OL coach in Aaron Kromer, in addition to a remarkably underrated again in Cook dinner. Cook dinner would not have the true third gear that the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs does, and he accordingly hits fewer house runs. He would not have the body that the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor does, and he accordingly breaks fewer tackles. However whereas Cook dinner’s bodily traits are extra nice than elite, his imaginative and prescient and really feel are really high tier.

Cook dinner has 231 carries and has been stuffed for no achieve or a loss solely 26 instances. Solely 5 backs within the NGS period have had 200-plus carries and a decrease stuff charge than Cook dinner; one of many 5 is his personal 2023 season.

When the Payments decide to a run-first strategy on offense, they roll their opponents. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt spoke about this after the sport, particularly Buffalo’s use of a run idea referred to as Duo. He mentioned, “I’ve by no means seen a staff run the identical play as a lot as they ran it in the present day and have as a lot success as they’d. I am out of phrases for it.”

This brings us again to Allen and the passing sport. If the working sport is bulldozing that successfully, should not play-action passes end in deep photographs? Single-high coverages, loaded containers, biting linebackers, and so on.?

Ideally, sure. However deep passing is rather more a large receiver stat than a quarterbacking stat. Take deep accuracy: When the ball is within the air for an prolonged time frame, a receiver’s potential to rapidly observe and alter to the throw is the distinction between a ball that appears correct and one that appears inaccurate. Quicker receivers are good for uncovering on a runway however dangerous at catching by means of contact from incoming safeties; larger receivers are nice at boxing out cornerbacks on the catch level however require chemistry and belief. Some throws in shallower areas of the sector nonetheless require a few of these traits, after all, however some are simply level and shoot. This isn’t the case additional downfield. Each throw is within the air lengthy sufficient that its accuracy is dramatically affected by the receiver monitoring it.

Watch Allen’s dropbacks on Sunday, and you may see open receivers additional downfield. Here is Brandin Cooks uncovering within the intermediate center in an enormous void between zones.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025

Here is Tyrell Shavers with a step on a deep nook route on a play-action boot.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025

However Allen has tried one go to Cooks and 17 passes to Shavers (a few which have been deep). He isn’t going to begin holding the soccer longer than he must (particularly after being sacked eight instances towards the Texans) to push the ball downfield in a sport that his protection and run sport have been controlling. That is mature quarterbacking — one thing he was not displaying earlier this season, when irritating first halves spiraled into urgent within the passing sport (Atlanta, Miami, Houston).

Bear in mind when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense misplaced the deep ball in 2023? All of us blamed two-high shells for ruining the game. Nevertheless it wasn’t a change in Mahomes’ capability or a schematic revolution. It was a mirrored image of the Chiefs’ receiving room. Groups with dangerous receivers cannot maintain throwing deep towards shell protection as a result of these are the throws on which receivers must be spectacular and carry extra of the burden for making them correct. The identical factor is occurring in Buffalo.

After all, the Payments cannot throw within the towel on the downfield passing sport fully — they usually will not. However not each staff is provided to win video games wherein they can’t rip off chunk positive factors by means of the air, and Buffalo is lucky to be a kind of valuable few that may. It’s a win for common supervisor Brandon Beane, who constructed this offensive line and working backs room with few missteps. It’s a win for Brady, who leans closely on his school background to discover a ton of manufacturing on swings and screens. It’s a win for Kromer, because the Payments’ offensive line is among the best-coached items in soccer. It’s a win for the Payments’ tight ends and receivers, all of whom are high-effort blockers with buy-in on working downs. And it’s a win for Allen, who stepped apart and let the working again room attempt on the superhero cape on this one.

The Payments can win playoff video games like this. Not 1.6 yards downfield, precisely, however 6 or 7. However they definitely haven’t got the extensive receiver expertise to win video games 11 or 12 yards downfield. That is a 2026 offseason drawback. For 2025, that is the trail up the mountain for the Buffalo offense.

From y’all

The very best a part of penning this column is listening to from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by electronic mail (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — however particularly on Monday every week — to ask a query and doubtlessly get it answered right here.

From Dave: Will the Vikings fireplace Kwesi this low season? Ideas on the supposed quarterback whispering coach?

I am not going to reply the primary half of the query. That is one for Jeremy Fowler or Dan Graziano. I am not tremendous impressed with Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s physique of labor, however I are usually very judgey towards common managers.

To the second half: I discover the truth that the Vikings’ fan base is popping on Kevin O’Connell very foolish. O’Connell definitely talked an enormous sport this offseason and sure needs he stored a extra cautious tongue. “Organizations fail younger quarterbacks earlier than younger quarterbacks fail organizations” is each a bar and undoubtedly true. However that is most likely a soundbite not value dropping into the ether to get thrown again in your face.

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With that mentioned, it’s painfully obvious to anybody watching the Vikings and J.J. McCarthy that the group did not fail him. McCarthy would not have it. Organizations would possibly fail younger quarterbacks first, however that does not imply they at all times fail younger quarterbacks. Typically they provide them the instruments — an awesome playcaller, wonderful go catchers, a supportive working sport, an explosive protection — and the quarterback fails anyway. It is nonetheless the NFL draft. Typically you draft a man who would not have a excessive ceiling. You’ll be able to coach round him — the Vikings beat the Bears with this man! The Lions, too! — however you’ll be able to’t change his stripes.

Ball up high within the 2026 and 2027 NFL draft. Welcome to NFL purgatory.

From Chris: How apprehensive are you about Darnold? I assumed he was okay towards MIN (OL was terrible many of the sport), however he was buzzing till the Rams sport and now it looks as if groups are determining learn how to disrupt his timing with unique blitzes and protection disguises.

I am unchanged on Sam Darnold. I cherished how he performed to begin the season, however I do not assume anybody thought he was a completely modified man from his failures in Minnesota (and struggles earlier than). It is arduous to calibrate to this when a staff has a brand new quarterback, however it’s necessary to recollect: each quarterback appears to be like worse towards good defenses. That is what makes good defenses good.

Darnold has been shaky towards stress these days. He possible will probably be for the remainder of the season. However play underneath stress is notoriously not sticky, and the Seahawks’ passing sport is among the league’s most harmful when the QB is unpressured. The Seahawks nonetheless have a Tremendous Bowl-caliber offense. They’re only a staff with a flaw, like virtually all Tremendous Bowl groups — champions included — earlier than them.

From Andy: Everyone appeared to know the Rams have been good till you place an aged QB out in a chilly rain. We might even see that Stafford once more developing Dec. 18.

The Rams had an offensive success charge of 58% — the Twelfth-best single-game efficiency of any sport this season. Additionally they had a 50% dropback success charge and a whopping 70% success charge on the bottom. They did not see a fourth down in the complete first half — no punts, no area objective makes an attempt, no fourth-down tries, nothing.

Three turnovers will spoil anybody’s efficient offensive day, however this sport was not an alarm bell. Not by an extended shot.

From BPA: Ben are the Bears good?

Yep. And so is Caleb. Which you heard right here first.

Subsequent Ben Stats

NFL Subsequent Gen Stats are distinctive and insightful nuggets of knowledge which might be gleaned from monitoring chips and big databases. Subsequent Ben Stats are often numbers I made up. Each are beneath.

plus-25.6%: That is the Panthers run charge over expectation of their win over the Rams on Sunday. It is the second-highest quantity for any offense in any sport this season.

The best? The Jets towards the Browns, which hardly counts.

I’m in awe of the dedication from Dave Canales and his teaching workers to controlling sport state by means of the working sport. The rain was dropping in sheets in the course of the second half, however I do not assume the precipitation tells the entire story. The Panthers did not name a single go on first-and-10 within the second half. 11 handoffs, one RPO throw, and a kneel. They weren’t essentially shredding on the bottom, both — these 11 first-down runs gathered solely 3.7 yards per carry.

However the runs stored Bryce Younger and the Panthers’ offensive line out of clear pass-rush conditions, the place the Rams have an unlimited benefit (over them and most different groups). Younger was pressured on solely 4 dropbacks — 4! Younger went 0-for-1 on these dropbacks, taking two sacks and scrambling as soon as. However by tiring out these defensive linemen with a heavy, downhill working assault that sustains drives and by limiting third-and-longs by grinding away 3.7 yards at a time, these stress alternatives aren’t as frequent or as harmful.

The working clock additionally shortens the sport, which the Panthers have been in because of a reasonably lucky first half — they intercepted a ball ultimately zone after a deflection off Derrick Brown’s helmet and bought one other decide off sometimes mistake-free Stafford that they housed for a landing.

On this manner, the sport adopted an analogous script to the Panthers’ huge Week 9 upset win over the Packers. Inexperienced Bay’s execution errors stored the sport shut within the second half, and the Panthers responded by shortening the sport and affording the opposing offense fewer drives to proper the scales.

After all, you need to execute in your key offensive moments to make an strategy like this work. Which brings us to our second stat:

14.45: That is Younger’s complete EPA generated on third and fourth down Sunday. It is probably the most passing EPA generated on late downs in a sport for any quarterback this season.

I will say one factor for Younger; he is clutch. Younger had three 30-plus-yard landing throws on third and fourth down on this sport. He is the primary quarterback with not less than three 30-plus-yard touchdowns on late downs in a sport since Daunte Culpepper did it towards the Lions in 2004.

The third-down landing wasn’t that thrilling — a swing display screen to Chuba Hubbard that caught the Rams in a foul blitz for a walk-in, untouched rating.

The 2 fourth-down touchdowns? Downfield throws towards man protection, each dropped properly into buckets. In video games wherein he drops again usually and will get hit a ton, Younger can develop into extremely erratic within the pocket and vulnerable to errors, particularly when throwing over the center. However on sport plans like these, wherein opposing defenses load the field to cease the run or ship further our bodies on the blitz, Younger can take his photographs. He throws with nice contact down the sector.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025

Very similar to towards the Packers, we will pretty say the Panthers do not win this sport more often than not. Scoring three offensive touchdowns from 30-plus yards out is just not a sustainable path to prolific offense. Getting three turnovers off Stafford is a really uncommon prevalence. However Canales and his workers perceive learn how to take video games wherein the Panthers are clearly outclassed — they have been 10.5-point underdogs at house — and warp them into kinds the Panthers can win.

That is having an identification. All the staff — playcallers to gamers to sport managers — rows the boat in the identical route. There may be shared perception in a single cohesive concept of successful soccer.

Many groups haven’t got that, and most of these groups aren’t within the playoff race. The Panthers have it, and they’re.

plus-0.14: That is Patrick Mahomes’ EPA per dropback on prolonged dropbacks this season. These are dropbacks of longer than 4 seconds.

Here is a graph. It is the entire quarterbacks on prolonged dropbacks this season.

Mahomes is having top-of-the-line seasons on prolonged dropbacks we have seen in fairly a while pic.twitter.com/sCDzMub0c5

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 1, 2025

Here is one other graph. It is each quarterback season over the previous 5 years on prolonged dropbacks.

Here is the final 5 seasons. Lmao. pic.twitter.com/c2vMHottIe

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 1, 2025

We have not seen a quarterback have a season like this on lengthy, improvised dropbacks since early Mahomes, early Lamar Jackson, and early Josh Allen — these seasons wherein no one had seen that kind of athleticism and improvisation. Defenses bought higher on the scramble drill and realized to respect Mahomes et al., later and later within the down. However this season, the magic is again.

Not the one-score magic, after all, The Chiefs are 6-6 and would possibly miss the playoffs. However no one has extra prolonged dropbacks than Mahomes this season, and no one is producing a optimistic play on such dropbacks save for Mahomes. He’s as he has at all times been: one in all one.

2,934 days: That is how lengthy of a niche there was between quarterbacks throwing four-plus interceptions of their debut begin, as Max Brosmer did for the Vikings on Sunday.

That quarterback in Week 11 of 2017 was Nathan Peterman, who went 6-of-14 for 66 yards and 5 interceptions in his debut for the Payments.

There are three non-Tremendous Bowl video games for which I can keep in mind precisely the place I used to be once I watched the sport. The Odell Beckham Jr. catch sport (I used to be there in individual). The Payments-Chiefs 13-second sport (at my in-laws, watching on my telephone and making an attempt to not scream). And the Peterman begin. I used to be at my buddy’s home along with his total household. They’re all lifelong, diehard, obsessive Payments followers. It was one of many best experiences of my life.