The hypothesis is lastly over. Forward of the Pittsburgh Steelers Week 10 recreation, they’ve traded for former Jets WR Mike Williams, utilizing one in every of their pair of fifth-round picks to take action.
At the moment, I needed to have a look at and concentrate on 2024 receiving knowledge on Williams, together with league-wide and present Steelers. A full rankings desk is included on the finish of the article for context. The purpose is to check how issues have gone to this point this season and what Williams may present the Black and Gold.
Let’s begin with routes run and targets for receivers’ amount of alternatives:
Mike Williams lands barely above the imply in routes run with 188, rating forty seventh out of the 100 qualifying WRs (min. of 20 targets). We see targets had been a lot tougher to come back by in a proficient WR room in New York, with solely 21 (T-97th). I’d anticipate that ratio to develop considerably in Pittsburgh, with much less depth that spurred the acquisition.
Touchdown closest to Van Jefferson on the visible sheds mild on his 2024 alternatives up to now, and will probably be fascinating to see how Williams’ presence impacts the remainder of the room and Pittsburgh’s offense.
Now analyzing targets additional: including yardage context with common distance of goal (ADoT) together with common distance of catch (ADoC):
The visible highlights Mike Williams’ status as a deep ball risk. This pairs effectively with QB Russell Wilson’s moonball talents and provides a layer to the passing recreation subsequent to among the best within the NFL already, WR George Pickens.
For extra context, Williams has a 14.2 ADoT that leads all highlighted gamers and ranks twelfth league-wide, with an 11.6 ADoC that ties for twentieth. Pickens’ 13.3 ADoT (T-Twenty third), with a greater 12.4 ADoC that ties for tenth most within the NFL. I, for one, wouldn’t look ahead to that problem if I had been a coach.
WR Calvin Austin additionally lands above the imply in every, significantly the extra essential ADoC (Twenty third), in comparison with an 11.3 ADoT (52nd). The place Pittsburgh lacked deep connection most was Van Jefferson, with an above-average 11.7 ADoT (T-Forty third), however plummeting compared to a low 6.6 ADoC (T-71st).
So, it will possible be one of many greatest adjustments and impacts Williams will present instantly, encouragingly.
Listed below are NFL receivers heading in the right direction catch charges (whole receptions divided by the variety of catchable targets) and drop percentages (drops divided by catchable targets):
Whereas it might be worse, Mike Williams has been barely under common within the fingers division this season. His 85.7 on-target catch charge ties for fifty fifth, and he has a 6.7 drop charge that ties for 61st. Sarcastically, the latter ties with Jefferson, with Williams’ quantity extra bearable contemplating his ADoT.
Williams does have a greater on-target catch charge than Pickens (78.9), which ranks a lowly 91st of 100. The caveat for Williams is just one drop, along with his low goal whole dinging his drop charge. One thing we’d see crop up, however knock on wooden, just isn’t an enormous situation.
Subsequent, I needed to have a look at and supply total completion percentages, together with receiver scores (quarterback passer score when focused):
This highlights the dismay that the 3-6 New York Jets have suffered total in 2024. The workforce hasn’t been enjoying effectively total, together with QB Aaron Rodgers’ far cry from his play that may possible make him a future Corridor of Famer, together with a 37-15 current loss to Pittsburgh.
Mike Williams caught simply 12 passes on his 21 targets this season for a poor 57.1 completion charge (seventieth). Inside poor outcomes right here for Williams are two interceptions on his targets, together with no TDs, which severely dings his abysmal 43.1 receiver score that’s fifth worst amongst qualifiers (96th).
Because the visible illustrates, all three Pittsburgh receivers have above-average receiver scores. That’s spectacular on their half but additionally indicative of quarterback play, which has been much better total in Pittsburgh this season. Hopefully, this aids a a lot better second half of 2024 for Williams.
Different essential parts I needed to have a look at come situationally, so listed below are receivers’ first down charges, together with damaged/missed tackles per reception to see who earned/created further yardage:
Excessive sides of the spectrum for Mike Williams. The good information is he’s been a sequence mover, with a 75.0-percent first down charge that ties for sixteenth. That is low quantity and is smart along with his ADoC. Knock on wooden, that influence continues within the Metal Metropolis.
Pickens and Austin have additionally been above common in these phrases, whereas all three land under common in damaged/missed tackles. Williams, specifically, has none on his 12 catches by means of 9 video games. So, I wouldn’t anticipate to see an excessive amount of of that. That’s okay, in my view, contemplating all of the churning YAC monsters Pittsburgh already has on the roster.
To shut, let’s take a look at a extra complete view utilizing factors earned per route (the entire of a participant’s EPA duty on targets utilizing the Complete Factors system that distributes credit score amongst all gamers on the sector for a given play).
Totals are scaled as much as map the common factors scored or allowed on a workforce stage, with the participant’s snap depend figuring out how a lot to regulate. For receivers, this consists of accounting for offensive line play, off-target passes dropped passes, and damaged tackles) and constructive charges (charge of passes thrown to the participant that resulted in a constructive EPA:
Mike Williams leads all targeted gamers with a 57.1 constructive charge, tying for twenty ninth within the NFL. So, whereas issues weren’t excellent in New York, he supplied above-the-line worth total in comparison with his friends on the WR place. Contemplating that the speed makes use of EPA, which components within the influence of scoring on a play-by-play foundation, that is nice to see.
When it comes to factors earned per route, Williams had a median of 0.8, rating forty seventh. The hope is that coming to a extra fluid offense at the moment will bode effectively for Williams, positively impacting his numbers and play for the remainder of the 2024 season.
General, the transfer was a no brainer contemplating the compensation, and I really feel that his addition will bode effectively for Pittsburgh’s offense. Right here’s to hoping that’s the case.
Here’s a wrap-up rankings desk of the information:
Finest ranks: ADoT (twelfth), 1st Dn Fee (sixteenth), ADoC (twentieth), Optimistic Fee (twenty ninth).
Middling ranks: Routes Run (forty seventh), Factors Earned (forty seventh), On Goal Fee (fifty fifth), Drop Fee (61st).
Worst ranks: Completion Fee (seventieth), BR/MT Fee (89th), Receiver Fee (96th), Targets (97).
