Persevering with the collection studying in regards to the new Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, I wished to dive deeper into an essential facet of profitable offenses – third and longs (>= seven yards).
In fact, the primary goal is to keep away from this undesirable state of affairs on the cash down, however in the present day’s purpose is to see how the brand new QB room fared within the state of affairs together with former Steeler Kenny Pickett for comparability.
third and lengthy QB drop backs (go makes an attempt, sacks, and scrambles), listed here are conversion charges and anticipated factors added (EPA = efficiency in comparison with expectation) for gamers with no less than 250 complete drop backs:
Instantly, we see Fields had the most effective steadiness of each information factors, touchdown above the imply in every. His 29.3 third and lengthy success fee ranked impressively at tenth, properly above common among the many 33 qualifying quarterbacks at sustaining drives in less-than-ideal circumstances on third down. Very refreshing to be taught.
Fields’ EPA was additionally respectably ranked at thirteenth, however was a unfavourable quantity (-0.035). This emphasizes that QBs usually had much less constructive performs within the poor state of affairs with solely 11 quarterbacks having a constructive EPA stat. Fields being near that group can be encouraging general.
This got here on 82 third and lengthy drop backs although, tying for twenty third, with decrease makes an attempt clearly the desire. So, whereas Fields’ high quality was fairly respectable in comparison with his friends, limiting the amount with extra profitable early down outcomes will hopefully development positively in future alternatives in Pittsburgh.
Let’s examine this to Pickett: 67 third and lengthy drop backs (tenth), 25.4 conversion fee (twenty first), -0.004 EPA (twelfth).
Pickett’s drop backs get an asterisk contemplating eh appeared in simply 12 video games, however are a good comparability to Fields, who performed in 13. This emphasizes the Bears offense getting in poor third down conditions much more than Pittsburgh in 2023. Hopefully the latter is the case for Fields within the Black and Gold if he receives ample taking part in time.
We additionally see Pickett’s conversion fee was stale compared, however EPA was very comparable between the 2 QBs.
Probably the most unlucky a part of the research is Wilson’s outcomes, under common in each information factors on third and longs. His 23.7 third and lengthy conversion fee ranked twenty fifth, together with a -0.200 EPA that landed twenty fourth. Every landed within the backside ten of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks. So, Wilson’s current resume on third and longs had been noticeably the worst high quality of the three QBs in our sights.
There have been some clashes in Denver with Wilson and coach Sean Payton’s offense struggling to mesh, resulting in a late season benching after 15 video games performed. In that span, Wilson had 76 third and lengthy makes an attempt (T-Sixteenth), so whereas the standard within the state of affairs was worst, Wilson dealing with the state of affairs much less that Fields on extra complete drop backs, encouragingly.
The hope for each new QBs is with a change of surroundings, and all of the investments Pittsburgh made on offense will result in a way more environment friendly offense in 2024, that can hopefully embrace robust third and lengthy outcomes.
