That is a part of a mini-series exploring 5 of the main achievements lacking from Tadej Pogačar’s already gorgeous palmarès: Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix, the Vuelta a España, an Olympic title, and a record-equalling fifth Tour de France title.
Can he tick these off? We’re taking a more in-depth take a look at every race to analyse his possibilities.
Tadej Pogačar hasn’t fairly gained all of it in skilled street biking, however he is not all that far off after seven years of racing on the prime stage.
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The Slovenian has thus far racked up Grand Tour wins on the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia, Monument wins on the Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia, varied WorldTour stage race victories together with Tirreno-Adriatico, Paris-Good and Critérium du Dauphiné, different main one-dayers together with Strade Bianche, Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Wallonne, plus a few world titles in addition.
A brief record of main races is presently lacking from Pogačar’s palmarès, together with the Vuelta a España, a clutch of different main stage races, Olympic titles and two of biking’s Monuments.
We have already analysed his possibilities at one of many hardest challenges mendacity forward of him within the form of La Classicissima, Milan-San Remo. Within the second a part of our collection, we’re one other momentous activity – Paris-Roubaix.
In contrast to his relationship with Milan-San Remo, there is not a protracted historical past between Pogačar and the Hell of the North. He has tried, and thus far failed, to win the Italian Monument on 5 events, taking third place in every of the previous two editions.
As such, he clearly has much less expertise on the tough cobbles of the Nord, at a race the place it is stated expertise counts if you wish to succeed. That maxim normally rings true, since few riders can flip up and compete on the sharp finish of affairs right away.
Nevertheless, that clearly wasn’t the case for Pogačar, who raced a restricted spring marketing campaign – together with solely Flanders from the same old schedule of cobbled Classics – earlier than heading to Roubaix for the primary time as a professional.
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It was a debut lengthy teased and far rumoured amid the clear stress of Pogačar desirous to have enjoyable and participate within the greatest races on the calendar versus his crew preferring him to keep away from the cobbles, difficult roads and threat of crashes of the Classics to as an alternative give attention to the massive cash maker of the Tour de France.
The speak began in mid-February when he and teammate Tim Wellens rode a recon of the race route, together with the enduring Trouée d’Arenberg.
From there, his directeur sportif Marco Marcato performed down the probabilities of Pogačar racing, saying, “Paris-Roubaix continues to be not on Tadej’s programme,” earlier than the person himself saved the hypothesis alive by saying a choice can be made after San Remo.
The Italian Traditional got here and went, with Pogačar once more on the rostrum with out a win, and 4 days later, he confirmed that he’d be lining up in Compiègne, regardless of his crew remaining at odds with him over the choice.
The E3 Saxo Traditional and Gent-Wevelgem have been subsequently wiped off his calendar, with solely Flanders – one other win so as to add to the record – serving as a ‘warm-up’ for the Hell of the North.
Come race day, few fairly knew what to anticipate, although Pogačar was, naturally, on the record of favourites regardless of his lack of expertise. It is exhausting to keep away from doing so wherever he exhibits up these days, in any case.
He had set a number of Strava information throughout a recon journey within the week earlier than the race after which greater than lived as much as that promise through the five-and-a-half-hour slog north itself.
Regardless of there being no climbs on which to mount an assault, Pogačar tried and tried once more to interrupt clear, with a transfer at 72km to go on the Tilloy à Sars-et-Rosières sector, touchdown him on the head of the race alone with the Alpecin-Deceuninck duo, Van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen.
The Belgian would final till Mons-en-Pévèle, leaving the debutant and the double-winner to battle it out through the closing 51km. It would not be a struggle all the way in which to the Vélodrome André-Pétrieux, nevertheless, as Pogačar went too deep right into a nook on the Pont-Thibault à Ennevelin sector, 40km from the end, hitting the deck and dropping out of rivalry within the course of.
In the long run, Pogačar, who like Van der Poel, additionally battled via a puncture late on, received to Roubaix in second place, 1:18 down on the Dutchman. A incredible exhibiting, even when it wasn’t the win he had hoped for. His crew got here away with their star rider having prevented any main accidents, too.
Afterwards, Pogačar referred to as Roubaix “the toughest race I’ve ever finished in my life” by way of energy output, and briefly talked about “subsequent time I come right here”, whereas Van der Poel stated, “for positive, he’ll be again to try to win this race”.
However will that return are available in 2026? And the way can he beat the person who has now taken house the cobblestone trophy in every of the previous three years?
How can Tadej Pogačar win Paris-Roubaix?
It is a powerful query. Whereas the Milan-San Remo route might supply up a handful of potential launchpads with which the very best climber within the peloton, such because the Cipressa and Poggio, there are fewer apparent places the place he would possibly drop the likes of Van der Poel and race on to glory. Nicely, to be frank, there aren’t any such places, on condition that Paris-Roubaix is a race with no hills.
After all, the Paris-Roubaix parcours options quite a few flashpoints the place the massive strikes are made. The primary important sortings-out occur at Haveluy à Wallers and the Arenberg. Afterward within the race, Mons-en-Pévèle, Camphine-en-Pévèle, and Carrefour de l’Arbre as a rule play host to the decisive strikes.
Pogačar might want to depart behind the specialists – Van der Poel, Philipsen, Mads Pedersen, Wout van Aert – someplace. In 2025, he dispatched with most of them, although he was fortunate in that Pedersen suffered a puncture simply because the decisive break up was made on the entrance.
It is exhausting to see the place that may occur, although, particularly given the uncooked energy and profitable know-how Van der Poel possesses. The three-time winner has soloed to the end of Paris-Roubaix with benefits of 46 seconds, three minutes, and 1:18 for a mean of 1:41. These aren’t small margins to shut up, not to mention match after which depart that rider behind.
The truth of the state of affairs is that, irrespective of the place he assaults or what tactic he pulls out of the bag, Pogačar merely is not going to provide as a lot energy on the flat as Van der Poel, who weighs in 10kg heavier. We have seen that he can drop the Dutchman on the bergs of the Tour of Flanders – it is the place his decrease weight, and thus, larger power-to-weight ratio, comes into play.
Clearly, Pogačar cannot use that to his benefit at Paris-Roubaix, and given his Grand Tour commitments, the probabilities of him piling on the kilos to focus on one race appear vanishingly small.
However perhaps he would not have to. He was with Van der Poel effectively into the ultimate, in any case. On his debut, too, having demonstrated he was stronger than each different cobbled Classics specialist within the race, placing to 1 facet the poor luck of Pedersen and a Van Aert not at 100%.
And that was after a flurry of assaults and strikes dotted all through the race – a few of them which might maybe be dialled again in future participations. Simply 30km into this yr’s race, he was chasing down strikes on the entrance of the peloton, whereas afterward, he led the race via the Arenberg. Then there have been the assaults at Wallers, Tilloy and Mons-en-Pévèle earlier than the transient acceleration at Pont Thibault earlier than his fall.
These assaults added as much as “the toughest race I’ve finished in my life” he stated later, including that his crash was additionally brought on by inexperience – “If you go full gasoline and motos are in entrance of you they usually do not flip, you additionally suppose there isn’t any flip. However I ought to know there is a nook, so no excuses,” he stated.
With some expertise behind him, a contact of energy-saving using right here and there, and that further course know-how, who’s to say he could not match Van der Poel additional into the race – even perhaps to the velodrome – in future?
It will take one thing further to drag off the win, although. Dropping Van der Poel earlier than the end, and even beating the likes of him, Philipsen, Pedersen and Van Aert in a velodrome dash, would possibly simply come all the way down to legs on the day or a stroke of luck slightly than any explicit strategic transfer.
Tadej Pogačar has gained loads of races throughout his profession, and he appears to be like set to win loads extra. Together with Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix poses the largest problem but, and the 2 races appear to be the toughest challenges of all. He is already stood on the rostrum of each, however the step as much as the highest step is a giant one.
What do you suppose? Can Pogačar win Paris-Roubaix, or may it find yourself one thing he is left chasing? Inform us your ideas within the feedback!
