The Auburn Tigers (3-6) will try to start out start the ultimate month of the common season on a excessive word once they host UL Monroe (5-4) at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday.
Auburn is coming off one among it is worst losses of the season towards Vanderbilt. The loss not solely dropped the Tigers again to 3 video games below the .500 mark, however pressured Auburn into needing to win its last three video games with a purpose to qualify for a bowl sport. Louisiana Monroe alternatively is one sport away from postseason competition. The Warhawks final received 6 video games in 2018, and have solely appeared in a single bowl sport in class historical past, the Independence Bowl, over a decade in the past in 2012.
Auburn’s season is probably not going the best way anybody throughout the program hoped, however the Tigers expertise nonetheless has them tabbed as 24.5-point favorites to seize win quantity 4 this week in response to BetMGM. ESPN FPI agrees with the sports activities books evaluation of this matchup, because the Energy Index provides Auburn a 92.6% probability to take residence a victory.
Will a deeper dive into the story of the tape present the Warhawks have an even bigger alternative to shock the world than specialists imagine? As at all times, we’ll begin by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled all through his time on the Plains, however is taking part in comparatively good soccer within the second half of 2024. Over the past 5 contests, the senior has thrown for 225 yards per sport, 6 touchdowns, and solely 2 interceptions. Whereas the private numbers have been fantastic, Auburn’s offense has solely eclipsed 20 factors twice in these 5 video games.
The senior hasn’t been unhealthy, however Thorne has not been adequate to assist carry an Auburn offense to factors on the scoreboard, or extra importantly. wins. On the season, Thorne has thrown for 1,825 yards, 13 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
On the opposite aspect, UL Monroe sophomore Aiden Armenta has been serviceable, however not distinctive, since taking on the beginning sign caller job from Common Booty. The Albuquerque, NM native has thrown for 898 yards in 5 begins and elements of three different video games this season, accumulating 8 whole touchdowns and eight interceptions. Whereas neither quarterback’s stats precisely “leap off the web page”, Thorne clearly has the sting.
The offensive ability participant hole is ever extra lopsided. The Warhawks do have a stud freshman operating again in Ahmad Hardy, who has rushed for precisely 2 extra yards (915) than Auburn star Jarquez Hunter (913) has rushed for this season, however the similarities between the ability gamers cease past that. Auburn’s prime move catching quartet of KeAndre Lambert-Smith (657 yards), Malcolm Simmons (349 yards), Cam Coleman (292 yards), and Rivaldo Fairweather (267 yards) have all out produced UL Monroe’s prime move catcher Davon Wells (232 yards) this season.
For those who add within the truth Auburn’s beginning offensive line is just larger and brings extra massive sport expertise than UL Monroe’s entrance 5, and the Tigers have a large edge in nearly each class heading into this matchup on Saturday.
On the defensive aspect, issues aren’t very shut both. The Warhawks protection has given up slightly below 5 touchdowns per contest in 4 highway video games this season, whereas Auburn’s protection, which has seemingly improved each week, has but to permit greater than 19 factors to a non-conference opponent this season. DJ Durkin’s unit has given up simply 16 factors per sport during the last three contests towards SEC competitors, giving the unit the clear edge over UL Monroe’s resistance, which has struggled mightily within the Solar Belt.
After looking on the story of the tape, it is clear Auburn has the sting in each main class forward of this matchup. The one believable cause the Tigers aren’t favored by much more most likely lies within the truth Auburn has been susceptible to beating itself many instances within the Hugh Freeze period.
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This text initially appeared on Auburn Wire: Story of the Tape: Auburn vs. UL Monroe
