The Honolulu Blueprint: 4 keys to a Lions Week 7 victory over the Vikings

The Detroit Lions (4-1) are on the highway in Week 7, touring to the dual cities to tackle the Minnesota Vikings (5-0), hoping to grab management of the NFC North.

“What a take a look at we’re going to have this week,” coach Dan Campbell stated on Wednesday. “These guys are enjoying actually good soccer. 5-and-0, at their place, 1-0 within the division for these guys, lively opportunistic protection, ball hawks, 11 takeaways, they’re simply enjoying at a excessive stage.”

If the Lions need to get an early lead within the division, they’ll have to comply with the keys to victory specified by this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

Vikings base schemes

Usually on this part, we break down the Lions’ opponent’s base schemes, however we determined to increase our view in a separate piece: Lions Week 7 Preview: Breaking down Vikings’ offensive and defensive schemes.

So, be sure you test it out for extra context associated to this week’s keys to victory.

Key 1: Proceed to ascertain the run early

The Lions’ speeding assault has been very efficient in 2024. They set up themselves on the bottom early and it turns into a weapon they will lean on at any level through the sport. They common 157.8 yards per sport (fourth within the NFL), are second in DVOA in speeding offense effectivity, and have a 49.7% speeding success charge per NextGenStats, the third-highest mark within the NFL since 2016.

The Vikings at present have the No. 1 DVOA speeding protection within the NFL and are permitting opponents to hurry for simply 67.2 yards per sport—second-best within the NFL, behind Baltimore (59 ypg) and one spot forward of Detroit (83.2 ypg).

What’s stunning about this success towards the run is that Minnesota leans on six defensive backs roughly 85% of the time, usually preserve two defensive backs deep 65% of the time, and stack the field lower than 10% of the time.

So how do they accomplish this?

First, as we mentioned in our assessment of the Vikings’ schemes, the Vikings will overload the road of scrimmage and disguise their intentions. Whereas they usually have seven or eight defenders drop into protection post-snap, by protecting defenders shut pre-snap, they put themselves in place to cease the run early in performs.

Secondly, the Vikings have had unimaginable early success in video games.

vs. Giants, they bought a 21-3 lead, successful 28-6
vs. 49ers, they gained the turnover battle (extra on that in a bit)
vs. Texans, 21-0 lead and gained 34-7
vs. Packers, it was a 28-0 lead earlier than holding off a comeback and successful 31-29
vs. Jets 17-0 lead, however solely gained 23-17 and wanted an interception to shut it out

With three-score (17 or extra level) leads in 4 of their 5 video games, Vikings opponents have been compelled to place the ball within the air and transfer away from the run.

The best way to counter that is for the Lions to remain aggressive and set up themselves on the bottom early, controlling the clock and the rating. If they will discover success, as they’ve all yr, this can put their offense in a spot to maintain the Vikings’ protection guessing on whether or not Detroit is working or passing the ball.

Key 2: Goff, offensive line want preparation and persistence

Whereas the Vikings’ defensive scheme is purposely complicated pre-snap, they do have tendencies and can present you their intentions rapidly post-snap. With the Lions’ expertise going through this protection—this would be the third time the Lions have confronted the Vikings previously 10 months—they will discover success by way of the air if they provide Jared Goff sufficient time within the pocket to evaluate the scenario.

Discovering success on the bottom is the 1st step, whereas step two will come right down to offensive line communication and execution, which is one thing the Lions are hoping they will accomplish by way of movie preparation.

“We noticed it twice final yr (and) the core of this unit and the thought behind it’s nonetheless there, nonetheless very a lot there,” coach Dan Campbell stated earlier this week. “There’s a few wrinkles and the personnel is best, they’ve upgraded, however I feel seeing this and game-planning for it and calling the sport towards it and ensuring you could have a solution for the whole lot, that’s what you need.

“That you must have a solution, and so long as you give Goff a solution—which in flip offers this offense a solution—you then’ll be positive, you’ve bought an opportunity. […] And so, we’ve bought the solutions, Ben [Johnson]’s bought the solutions, it’s arrange, it’s about execution. However yeah, right here we go man, Ben, it’s his third yr calling the offense after which, like I say, third yr going towards this type, so it’s massive, and I feel it offers us a bonus.”

To attempt to offset their predictability, the Vikings will often blitz to power offenses to make fast choices. At the moment, the Vikings are blitzing 41.1% of the time (down from 50+% final season) which is second within the NFL. They blitz on practically half of early downs, hoping to place offenses in third-and-long, after which again off on third down and clog throwing lanes.

Regardless of the narrative that Goff struggles underneath strain, his stats say in any other case in 2024. Per NextGenStats, Goff is averaging a league-high 10.7 yards per try when underneath strain and has solely been sacked on 17.6% of his pressures, the Twelfth-lowest charge within the NFL.

This brings us again to my No. 1 key to victory from my 2023 Honolulu Blueprints: Goff might want to assault the blitz.

When the Vikings blitz, they have a tendency to maintain two defensive backs excessive (over 56% of blitzes) in split-zone protection, which opens areas beneath for slot retailers All-Professional broad receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, who can uncover rapidly and quiet down into zone protection. Final season, per NextGenStats, when Goff confronted a split-safety protection blitz from the Vikings, he accomplished seven of 9 passes for 154 yards and a landing (17.1 YPA).

However will the Vikings preserve two-high safeties vs. the Lions? They’ll nearly should lean this fashion for one most important purpose: Jamo.

Jameson Williams’ pace is electrical, he’s been a favourite of Goff this season, leads the group in receiving yards, and the Vikings don’t have the defensive personnel to match up with him one-on-one. Stephon Gilmore is 34 years previous and lacks the pace he as soon as possessed, whereas Byron Murphy and Josh Metellus (each with 4.55 pace) will need assistance excessive from safeties.

In earlier seasons, Williams wanted time to beat protection and get deep, however this season, he’s elevated his route effectiveness and is getting open rapidly and presenting a dependable goal for Goff. When groups have pressured Goff this season, he has seemed Williams’ method 11 instances, finishing eight of these passes for 202 yards and a landing.

Moreover, the Vikings run Cowl-0 on 10.5% of their defensive performs (most within the NFL). And whereas they’ve solely given up one explosive play on this protection, it’s value noting that Goff’s reply to this protection can be to show to Williams. Groups have solely examined Goff with this protection 5 instances this season, however he has gone three of 4 (one sack) for 76 yards and two touchdowns.

Goff is effectively suited with solutions to among the Vikings’ finest traits, however he’ll want to acknowledge them after they occur and have the time to execute his sport plan.

“That’s actually the main target right here, preserve your composure, talk and also you’ve bought to battle,” Campbell concluded.

Key 3: Dial-up inside strain with Alim McNeill

Whereas the Lions will all the time prioritize stopping the run, they’ll nonetheless want to seek out methods to strain Vikings’ quarterback Sam Darnold. And with the lack of Aidan Hutchinson, together with the Vikings having strong bookended offensive tackles, that seemingly means the Lions will flip to their inside defensive position to create alternatives.

In 2024, Alim McNeill—recent off a brand new contract extension—has accounted for 14 pressures on 144 go rushers (9.7% success charge), per NextGenStats. However when the Lions misplaced Hutchinson through the Cowboys sport, McNeill stepped up and registered seven pressures, together with 4 pressures on 9 one-on-one matchups with All-Professional Zach Martin.

Tasked with blocking McNeill this week can be Vikings proper guard Ed Ingram (29.4 go safety grade from PFF) and middle Garrett Bradbury (50.1). Collectively, the pair have allowed 30 of the group’s 53 pressures.

Darnold has been sacked 15 instances in 2024, and whereas his inside go blocking has been suspect, he additionally holds onto the ball longer than most quarterbacks. On common, he holds the ball for 3.13 seconds (second-longest within the NFL) as he’s persistently wanting downfield for open targets. Per NextGenStats, he holds the ball for a minimum of 2.5 seconds on 72% of his dropbacks, the very best charge within the NFL.

If the Lions can play include with the EDGE gamers and create strain up the center, with McNeill and/or inventive stunting, the Lions ought to see a big profit.

Key 4: Win the turnover battle

Producing turnovers has been an enormous a part of the Vikings’ defensive success. Not solely are they forcing 2.6 turnovers a sport (second most within the NFL) however they’re getting them at well timed junctures.

“It’s enormous and a lot of these video games it’s—effectively, definitely the Inexperienced Bay sport early—nevertheless it’s, you rating, get a cease, you rating, they flip the ball over, you rating, and unexpectedly you’re 21-0,” Campbell stated of the Vikings’ success on offense mixed with well timed turnovers from their protection. “Man, they’re huge errors they usually’re getting up by two scores, three scores in some circumstances, early, and in regards to the time you struggle your method again, then they draw back once more. So, it’s actually by no means been shut, and it’s, the turnover ratio goes to be ginormous.”

Whereas the Vikings’ protection has been excellent in producing turnovers, the offense has not been as sharp, turning the ball over 1.8 instances per sport. Darnold’s 0.8 interceptions per sport is across the league common, whereas their 1.0 fumbles misplaced (1.8 fumbles per sport) is worst within the NFL.

Darnold has struggled vs. man protection this season and the Lions run the third most man protection (43%) within the NFL. Final week, they ran man protection 50% of the time towards the Cowboys and restricted Dak Prescott to 5 of 17 for 86 yards and two interceptions towards this protection.

The Lions’ safeties have been an enormous key to their success on turnovers and collectively Brian Department and Kerby Joseph have mixed to power eight of the Lions’ 10 turnovers.

Whereas the Vikings’ 2.6 turnovers per sport are spectacular, the Lions are simply behind them, forcing 2.0 turnovers per sport, fourth finest within the NFL. And whereas the Vikings are giving up 1.8 turnovers a sport, the Lions are giving up simply 0.8 turnovers on offense per sport. That breaks right down to the Vikings having a +0.8 in takeaways (seventh finest within the NFL) ratio, whereas the Lions are producing a +1.2 (fourth finest) ratio.

“Yeah, that’s usually going to be the distinction within the sport and people guys have been thriving off of it,” Goff stated about takeaways. “So yeah, we’ve bought to do a superb job caring for it and, like I stated, they’re extraordinarily ball-aware, they’re attempting to take it away, you may inform, and we’ve bought to be much more conscious this week.”