The Numbers Behind Getting Into the Western States 100: Lottery and Qualifying Races

With the 2024 Western States 100 proper across the nook, I needed to higher perceive who can be rounding the corners come race day. If you happen to’re something like me, it is a bucket record race in your calendar, however the prospect of getting in is so distant that it’s extra of an idea than a sensible chance for therefore many people at this level.

Simply how troublesome is it to get into this occasion? What’s the finest technique for getting in? Will I be capable to run this occasion earlier than my physique offers out from overuse? On this article, I dive into the numbers in an try to shed some mild on these questions.

Breakdown of the 2024 Western States 100 Entrants

Western States is the oldest 100-mile race on the planet and attracts ultrarunners from across the globe to participate within the historic occasion. (See my earlier article for what this journey seems like.) Entry into this race has continued to develop in demand yr over yr, with solely a tiny fraction of all candidates gaining entry.

When the 2024 Western States kicks off in a number of days, 375 people will toe the road. Here’s a breakdown of how these 375 people gained entry into the occasion.

2024 Western States 100 Entrants Breakdown

Supply: https://www.wser.org/automatics/

We primarily have three primary methods to get into the occasion:

Grow to be very concerned with the occasion, resembling by being a board member or by volunteering at an support station for a few years;
Be actually, actually quick; or
Achieve entry via the race lottery.

With 72% (270) of individuals getting in by way of the lottery, that is the most typical option to get in. That doesn’t, nonetheless, imply that the chances are in your favor of getting in. Since choices 1 and a couple of are restricted to roughly 100 individuals, whereas the lottery this yr had 9,388 individuals, I can be focusing this text on the third group.

Western States is kind of clear with their lottery system — they don’t do an incredible job of choosing me — and supplies an in depth breakdown of lottery statistics yearly. Right here you may see the expansion of candidates over time and what number of tickets they’ve collected through the years. The variety of tickets an entrant has is calculated by 2^(n-1) the place n is the variety of years coming into the lottery with out gaining entry.

The Progress of Western States 100 Candidates From 200o to 2024

Be aware: There have been no lotteries for the 2009 and 2021 races as in every occasion entrants have been rolled over from the race being canceled the earlier yr. Supply: https://www.wser.org/2023/11/30/2024-lottery-statistics/

Due to this logarithmically scaled ticket system that rewards entrants who’ve been making an attempt for a few years, the 9,388 individuals really interprets to 53,966 complete tickets. Western States runs Monte Carlo simulations — a statistics method used to foretell outcomes of an unsure occasion — to indicate the anticipated probability of an entrant entering into the occasion given a sure ticket quantity.

The chart beneath particulars your odds of getting in for 2024. With 1 ticket, your chances are high lower than 1% and people possibilities solely enhance to above 50% with 128 tickets, which suggests 8 years of coming into the lottery and never being chosen.

Primarily based on Ticket Numbers, the Odds of Getting Into the 2024 Western States 100

Supply: https://www.wser.org/2023/11/30/2024-lottery-statistics/

Supplied these dismal possibilities, I needed to grasp how lengthy it might take a mean runner resembling myself to get into Western States. For the sake of this calculation, I assumed an applicant accomplished a qualification race yearly. Given the above odds and taking into account being chosen in a earlier yr, the anticipated variety of years to get into Western States is 6.79 years.

Be aware that the above doesn’t account for extra individuals coming into the lottery over time, which decreases one’s odds additional. If we have a look at current developments and apply a decay issue of 0.75 to replicate the change from the 2023 to the 2024 lottery, the anticipated variety of years turns into 8.3 years.

Perseverance is the important thing to being chosen for this race. Eight years is a very long time, however when you proceed to stack up these qualifiers, you’ll finally get in. By this level, in case your physique continues to be cooperating, you may be fairly skilled in ultra-distance occasions and in a great place to take advantage of the 100 miles.

A key half to this multi-year plan is to proceed to finish Western States qualifiers. Within the subsequent part, I break down the qualifying races and discover the panorama of those occasions.

Western States 100 Qualifying Races and Their Attributes

Western States qualifiers are “based mostly solely on the scale of the race” with massive and established races getting precedence, and the one restriction being that races shorter than 100 miles will need to have not less than 8,202 ft (2,500 meters) of elevation acquire. The race group reiterates its method is “based mostly solely on the variety of runners and never course issue.”

This method differs from that of different races, such because the Hardrock 100, the place many components are considered for qualifying races. With Hardrock’s cumulative vertical acquire of 33,000 ft and a mean elevation of 11,000 ft, its board has set stricter standards for its qualifying races. They have a look at information about race traits resembling excessive elevation, lengthy steep climbs, extreme climate, and uncovered terrain to make sure entrants are ready to soundly full the Hardrock 100.

Desirous about this issue standards received me within the range of races included within the Western States qualifiers. As a result of there isn’t a issue standards, some races are inherently simpler qualifiers. On the finish of the day, every race is as troublesome as you select to make it and also you see runners push themselves to the brink from 100 meters to 100 miles. What I need to give attention to on this part are the components that contribute to an athlete finishing a race within the requisite qualifying time for a lottery ticket. Which races are most probably to safe the common runner a qualifier?

Andre Blumberg ending the 2013 Western States 100, alongside his spouse and crew, Patchanida Pongsubkarun. Photograph: Patchanida Pongsubkarun

Dataset

On this part, I have a look at all Western States qualifier races within the U.S. and Canada. The information is pulled from every race’s gpx information.

Utilizing a fundamental scatter plot view, I mapped the gap and elevation of Western States qualifiers for 2024:

Distance Versus Vertical Achieve within the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers

A number of issues leap out about this chart. First, we’ve got our outliers up and to the precise, with 4 200-mile or longer races. These 200-mile races are out of the scope of this text — and don’t get me began on 300-mile races. For sure, when you full considered one of these races, you’re a monster and never searching for the ‘simple’ lottery entry into Western States.

Eradicating these outliers, we are able to get a greater view of the 100-kilometer and 100-mile distances that I give attention to for the remainder of this part.

On this graph, we see two primary clusters on the x-axis across the 100k and 100-mile distances, with appreciable variation within the vertical acquire (y-axis) for related distance occasions. For 100-mile occasions, this spans from the Hennepin Hundred Mile, which positive factors lower than 1,000 vertical ft to the Hardrock 100, which boasts over 33,000 ft of climbing.

This variation is big. A mountainous 100-mile course at elevation is a very totally different race than a flat occasion of the identical distance at sea stage. Western States falls close to the center of the vertical acquire distribution for 100-mile occasions with round 18,000 ft of vertical acquire.

Vertical acquire is a crucial issue, however what goes up should finally come down — except you’re the Cocodona 250 Mile, you then simply preserve going up. distance and web acquire, we are able to see a barely totally different story.

Distance Versus Internet Achieve within the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers

Most programs are near zero web acquire, being run on loops or beginning and ending in related places. The California programs take the crown for web downhill, with Western States itself having essentially the most web downhill, edging out the Angels Crest 100 Mile and the Canyons 100 Mile.

The space together with vertical acquire and web acquire are essential components when analyzing how troublesome a qualifying race is. One other vital issue to think about when securing a qualifier is the cutoff time. distance versus cutoff time, we see a detailed correlation with variation resulting from different issue components of the course.

Distance Versus Cutoff Time within the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers

Most 100k cutoffs fall within the 17- to 22-hour vary, whereas most 100 milers are between 30 and 36 hours.

Distance and elevation acquire are the 2 most generally accessible information factors round races and provides us a top level view of the cutoff customary in extremely races. Desirous about the Hardrock 100’s qualifier necessities, I needed to gather information round some further traits like elevation and lengthy, steep climbs to color a extra detailed image of those races.

I pulled this data and compiled a dataset for all races from their gpx information. The extra variables I checked out in addition to distance and ascent have been common elevation, most elevation, sustained climbs of over 2,000 ft, and sustained climbs of over 3,000 ft. Initially, I needed an outline of which variables have been most intently tied to course cutoff instances. By plotting a heatmap of correlation between variables, we are able to see which variables are intently associated to different variables.

The above plot may be very colourful and enjoyable, however what does it actually inform us? The row I’m most interested in is how sure variables are correlated with cutoff time.

Zooming in on this backside row we see that distance is most correlated with cutoff time — no shock there — whereas the variables subsequent most intently correlated to cutoff instances are vertical change and sustained climbs, which refers back to the variety of sustained climbs of greater than 2,000 and three,000 vertical ft, suggesting a mountainous course.

Predicted Occasions for Ultramarathons In comparison with Their Cutoffs

Contemplating these variables, I used to be curious to see if we might decide which races are theoretically essentially the most affordable to finish throughout the cutoff time. We’re, in fact, restricted by information and the next evaluation doesn’t seize the various nuances of an extremely race. Regardless, I hope you discover the next evaluation fascinating when it comes to fascinated about the relation between race options and cutoff time.

The gang celebrates after Gunhild Swanson completed the 2015 Western States 100 with six seconds to spare. Photograph: Ted Knudsen

Taking the earlier scatter plots taking a look at totally different options, I needed to suit a regression mannequin to view the anticipated cutoff time. Right here we are able to see the anticipated line for cutoff time based mostly off essentially the most intently correlated characteristic, distance.

Regression Fashions Present Anticipated Cutoff Occasions for the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers

Taking out the 48-hour cutoff races outliers of the Hardrock 100, Fats Canine 120 Mile, and Merciless Jewel 100 Mile, we are able to higher evaluate races with related cutoff instances within the scatter plot beneath.

Including in additional variables we are able to proceed to enhance the accuracy of the mannequin as we account for extra options of the race.

After accounting for the entire variables collected we are able to graph a residual plot exhibiting how a lot a race’s cutoff time deviates from what could be anticipated based mostly on its options.

A Residual Plot Displaying How A lot the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifier Races’ Cutoff Occasions Deviate from Anticipated

The above graph is fascinating as a result of it permits us to have a look at the information factors with the biggest residual. These are the races which have a decrease predicted cutoff time than the precise cutoff time, i.e., a beneficiant relative cutoff time. If you’re chasing cutoffs, a change of an hour or two might be the distinction between finishing the race and timing out.

In accordance with this mannequin, the races with the biggest residuals (most beneficiant cutoffs) throughout 100k and 100-mile distances are the Dinosaur Valley 100k, the Misplaced Soul 100k, the Extremely-Path Harricana 125k, the Quebec Mega Path 100 Mile, the Superior 100 Mile, and the Zion 100 Mile. To reiterate, these usually are not the best races, slightly these with essentially the most beneficiant cutoffs based mostly on the options accounted for on this mannequin.

I’d have beloved to spend extra time on this space to construct out a extra full mannequin round ultramarathon course issue (keep tuned for this sooner or later), however, alas, cutoffs, this time of the editorial selection! Onto the takeaways.

Takeaways

There are greater than 200 qualifying races for Western States to select from. When contemplating a qualifying race, you will need to notice that races differ considerably in distance, elevation, and a wide range of different methods.
If you’re trying to get a Western States qualifier, you will need to think about the cutoff time. A race might seem ‘simpler’ on paper, however might need a much less beneficiant cutoff time, thereby making it troublesome to finish throughout the time constraint.

For these of you racing Western States this yr, better of luck and take a second to understand what received you to this second — particularly these of you who received in with one lottery ticket!

Name for Feedback

I really like information, however acknowledge it doesn’t inform the total story. What different components do you suppose contribute essentially the most to races being extra ‘troublesome?’
For the races I recognized as having essentially the most beneficiant cutoffs, are there any that you just disagree with based mostly on different components that weren’t included within the mannequin?
Are there any races you suppose are ‘simpler’ qualifiers?

Ladies’s champion Ruth Croft on the Rucky Chucky river crossing at mile 78 of the 2022 Western States 100. Photograph: iRunFar/Bryon Powell