It’s nearly baseball season, which implies we’re properly into projection season. Till we get to see all of it play out on the sphere, we are able to check out the way it could go.
Typically sure projected stat strains actually stand out, and get us enthusiastic about how exceptional the season is likely to be for that participant. Taking a look at FanGraphs Steamer projections, there are gamers whose numbers would attain the report books.
Right here’s a take a look at 11 gamers who’re projected to do one thing historic.
Juan Soto: ninth straight .395 OBP, sixth season with 25+ homers and 115+ walks
Soto’s projected .413 on-base share would lead the NL, trailing solely Aaron Decide’s .417 in MLB. This may mark the ninth season of Soto’s profession with at the very least a .395 on-base share. The one AL/NL gamers to have at the very least a .395 OBP in every of their first 9 or extra seasons are Ted Williams (first 17 seasons), Stan Musial (14) and Ferris Fain. Because it stands, Soto’s streak of eight straight such seasons to begin his profession is tied for fourth, with Frank Thomas, Wade Boggs and Charlie Keller. Soto is projected for 34 homers and 117 walks. This may be his sixth season with at the very least 25 homers and 115 walks. His 5 such seasons already are tied with Jim Thome and Lou Gehrig for fourth most in a profession, behind solely Barry Bonds (13 seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Williams (9). Soto’s energetic streak of 5 consecutive seasons performed with these totals is tied for second longest, with Bonds from 2000-04, behind Williams’ six from 1941-42 and 1946-49 (navy service 1943-45).
Ohtani was unimaginable but once more final yr, establishing a brand new 50-50 membership with 55 house runs and 62 strikeouts as a pitcher. Now, in 2026, we get a full season of two-way Shotime. He’s projected for 136 strikeouts on the mound and 43 homers on the plate, tied with Decide for essentially the most in MLB. There’s just one participant in MLB historical past to have greater than 15 house runs as a hitter and greater than 30 strikeouts as a pitcher in a season: Ohtani, in 2018, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23 and ‘25. Along with his projected 43 house runs and 136 strikeouts on the mound, he would have the third season in historical past with 40 and 100, becoming a member of his output in 2021 (46 house runs, 156 strikeouts) and 2023 (44, 167). Regardless of the way you slice it, he’s one in all one.
Paul Skenes: NL chief in ERA for second straight yr, NL chief in strikeouts
Skenes simply retains getting higher. He’s already simply the third pitcher to win each Rookie of the 12 months and a Cy Younger Award by the tip of his second season, together with Fernando Valenzuela and Dwight Gooden. He’s projected to steer the NL with a 2.92 ERA, which might be his second consecutive yr doing so. At 24 years and 121 days outdated on the ultimate day of the season, Skenes could be the youngest to steer his league in back-to-back seasons since earned runs turned official in each leagues in 1913, in line with the Elias Sports activities Bureau. At the moment, the youngest pitcher to take action is Clayton Kershaw, who was 24 years and 198 days outdated on the ultimate day of video games in 2012. Kershaw is the one pitcher to steer his league in ERA in consecutive seasons earlier than turning 25. Skenes can be projected to steer the NL in strikeouts, with 237. He could be the fifth youngest to steer his league in each ERA and strikeouts by age on the finish of the season, older than solely 1985 Gooden (20 years, 324 days), 1940 Bob Feller (21 years, 331 days), 1965 Sam McDowell (23 years, 12 days) and 2011 Kershaw (23 years, 193 days).
Tarik Skubal: AL ERA chief for third straight yr, MLB Triple Crown
What’s going to the reigning and back-to-back AL Cy Younger Award winner do for one more encore? Loads, per his projections. He’s projected to steer MLB with a 2.81 ERA and 242 strikeouts, and tie for the lead in wins with 14, with Garrett Crochet and Cristopher Sánchez. This may be Skubal’s third straight season main at the very least the AL in ERA. Simply 5 pitchers have led their league in ERA in three or extra consecutive seasons since earned runs turned official: 1962-66 Sandy Koufax (5 consecutive), 2011-14 Kershaw (4), 1929-32 Lefty Grove (4), 1993-95 Greg Maddux and 1990-92 Roger Clemens. Main or co-leading in all three classes would give Skubal his second profession Triple Crown. The one pitchers with a number of since earned runs turned official are Koufax (three), Grover Alexander (three), Walter Johnson (three), Clemens, Grove and Lefty Gomez. And this could be an MLB Triple Crown, main the Majors in all three, which has been achieved simply 3 times for the reason that mound was lowered (1969) — by 2020 Shane Bieber, 2006 Johan Santana and 1985 Gooden. And by the best way, with Skenes and Skubal each projected to steer their leagues in ERA once more: we’ve by no means seen back-to-back winners in each leagues in the identical season.
To no person’s shock, Decide is projected for yet one more monster yr on the plate, tying with Ohtani for the MLB lead in homers. If he can hit at the very least two greater than his projection, it could mark his fifth season with at the very least 45 house runs. Simply seven gamers in MLB historical past have at the very least 5 such seasons: Ruth (9 45-HR seasons), Bonds (six), Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire and Harmon Killebrew. He’s additionally projected to have a 172 wRC+ – that means he could be 72% higher than league common, offensively. This may be Decide’s fifth consecutive season with at the very least 35 homers and a 170 wRC+. The one gamers to try this in at the very least 5 straight seasons are 1926-32 Ruth (seven), 2000-04 Bonds and 1920-24 Ruth. Because it stands, Decide’s four-season streak is the fourth longest.
Schwarber is projected for yet one more 40-homer season, hitting that quantity on the dot. Schwarber has 187 house runs with the Phillies, third most by a participant in his first 4 seasons with a group behind McGwire’s 191 with the Cardinals and Ruth’s 189 with the Yankees. And along with his re-signing in Philly this offseason, that’s an inventory we are able to proceed to trace. 40 house runs this season would give him 227 in 5 years with the Phillies. The one participant with that many house runs in his first 5 years with a group is Ruth, with 235 with the Yankees.
At the moment, Steamer doesn’t challenge any gamers with at the very least 30 house runs and 30 stolen bases. However there are three gamers projected to have at the very least 30 stolen bases and 25 house runs: Carroll (27 HR, 33 SB), Ramírez (27-30) and Witt (26-31).
If any of them out-hits that house run projection ever so barely, we’re some 30-30 seasons. That will be a second consecutive for Carroll and third consecutive for Ramírez. Ramírez is simply the ninth participant to report at the very least two consecutive 30-30 seasons, becoming a member of Witt (2023-24), Ryan Braun (2011-12), Alfonso Soriano (2005-06, 2002-03), Vladimir Guerrero Sr. (2001-02), Barry Bonds (1995-97), Ron Gant (1990-91), Bobby Bonds (1977-78) and Willie Mays (1956-57).
The factor about that record? The one participant with three straight is Barry Bonds, which implies Ramírez could be the second to take action in baseball historical past. And Carroll would be a part of the bigger record. This may be the fourth 30-30 general for Ramírez and third for Witt.
The one gamers in MLB historical past with at the very least three 30-30 seasons are Barry Bonds (5), Bobby Bonds (5), Soriano (4), Ramírez and Howard Johnson. Carroll can be projected to steer MLB with 10 triples. That will be his third season with at the very least 10 triples, 25 house runs and 30 stolen bases, most in MLB historical past. His two are at present tied with Witt and Mays for essentially the most.
Final yr’s house run king is projected for 38 house runs, and earlier than anybody thinks the Huge Dumper is being disrespected by not having a 60-homer projection, take into account a number of issues, please. First, these methods are notoriously conservative — a projection is the almost definitely, not most unimaginable, consequence, based mostly on quite a few simulations. That’s why they play the sport. Second, the 38-homer projection for Raleigh is the best Steamer has had for a catcher in FanGraphs’ archive, which dates to 2012. This may be Raleigh’s fourth season with at the very least 30 house runs. The one gamers with at the very least 4 30-homer seasons whereas primarily enjoying catcher are Mike Piazza (9), Johnny Bench and Roy Campanella.
In main the NL in batting common in 2024, Arraez turned the primary participant to win a batting title in three consecutive seasons with three completely different groups (2023 Marlins, 2022 Twins). This yr, he’s projected to steer MLB with a .305 common. Since he’s a free agent and has but to signal, we don’t know which league’s batting title he would win. That additionally means he has an opportunity to set a report by successful one with a fourth group. As famous above, he’s the one participant to win a batting title in three consecutive years with three completely different groups. However even when we take away the consecutive qualifier, only one different participant has gained one with three groups at any level, per Elias. The one participant aside from Arraez with batting titles for 3 groups is Dan Brouthers (1892 Brooklyn Grooms, 1889 Boston Beaneaters, 1883 Buffalo Bisons, 1882 Bisons).
