Fast trivia query, trusted readers: What number of groups repeated as division champions final 12 months? That’s to say, who received division titles in each 2022 and 2023?
The reply is three. The Braves received the NL East (by 14 extra video games than they did in 2022), the Dodgers received the NL West (by six video games fewer, although nonetheless by 16 video games) and the Astros received the AL West (in a tie, after profitable it by 16 video games in 2022). That’s par for the course. Listed below are the variety of defending champs to win once more every of the earlier 5 years:
2022: Two2021: Two2020: Three2019: Three2018: Three
So, 4 out of the final six seasons, we’ve had three repeat division champions, a very sticky quantity when you think about the truncated 2020 season. In order we head into 2024, ought to we count on to see three once more?
Right here’s a take a look at the six division champions from final 12 months, ranked by the probability that they’ll win their division once more. Repeating: It’s not really easy to do. (Every membership is listed with its 2023 document and margin of victory within the division.)
1. Dodgers (NL West)100-62 (16 video games over D-backs)
The Dodgers could be a terrific option to prime this record it doesn’t matter what they did this offseason, contemplating they’ve received 10 of the final 11 NL West titles. However, uh, effectively … the Dodgers have certainly achieved some stuff this offseason. This 100-win workforce added Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández and a sure two-time MVP named Shohei Ohtani. The most effective participant they misplaced off final 12 months’s workforce is J.D. Martinez, who’s changed within the DH spot, in fact, by Ohtani.
And it’s not as if the remainder of the division made large steps towards the Dodgers. The Padres don’t have Juan Soto anymore and will lose Blake Snell, too. The Giants completed beneath .500 and noticed prime free-agent targets Ohtani and Yamamoto choose the Dodgers as a substitute. The D-backs have made some additions to a workforce that did go to the World Collection final 12 months, however they’re additionally a workforce that completed 16 video games behind Los Angeles.
The Dodgers ran away from everybody on this division final 12 months, they acquired tons higher within the offseason and no clear NL West challenger has emerged. It was not troublesome to rank them No. 1.
2. Braves (NL East)104-58 (14 video games over Phillies)
You possibly can inform how assured the Braves are about their means to succeed in the playoffs in 2024 by their offseason method. They didn’t make huge, sweeping, change-the-foundation-of-your-team strikes. Reasonably, they made tweaks. These are the form of transactions that received’t make a lot distinction over the course of a 162-game season however might make all of the distinction in a brief collection within the chilly of October. You most likely can’t rely on Chris Sale for 200 innings anymore, however for 15 innings with every part on the road? Not numerous guys you’d like on the market extra.
The Braves have received six straight division titles, however they’ve by no means received their division by as many video games as they did in 2023. With their core in place, they’re clearly not reinventing the wheel right here. They’ll face steeper division competitors than the Dodgers will, if simply because the Mets’ 2024 season can’t be practically as troublesome as their 2023 was, and the Phillies will likely be further motivated after their NLCS loss to the D-backs. However there’s a purpose everybody was chasing the Braves a 12 months in the past. It’s the identical purpose they’ll all be chasing them once more this 12 months.
3. Astros (AL West)90-72 (Gained tiebreaker with Rangers)
Talking of streaks, the final full season through which the Astros didn’t win the AL West was 2016, which was Alex Bregman’s rookie season. It has been some time.
There have been indicators that the Astros’ grip on the division – and, actually, the entire AL – could also be loosening, although. First there’s the truth that their division (and intrastate) rival, the Rangers, simply received their first World Collection after beating Houston in a seven-game ALCS. However the core of this workforce stays as sturdy as any in baseball: Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Abreu/Tucker is a gauntlet for any pitcher, they’ll have Justin Verlander atop that rotation for a full season this time round and now Josh Hader looms at the back of the bullpen.
This can be a powerful name – there’s an enormous hole between Nos. 2 and three on this record – notably with the Rangers wanting simply nearly as good as they did final 12 months (once they tied the Astros atop this division). However with as many pitching accidents because the Rangers have to begin the season, we’ll go along with the Astros. Actually, although, every of the final 4 divisions on this record are very a lot up within the air.
4. Twins (AL Central)87-75 (9 video games over Tigers)
Are the Twins the least imposing workforce on this record? They most likely are. They received solely 87 video games final 12 months, they misplaced two of their greatest beginning pitchers in Sonny Grey (to the Cardinals) and Kenta Maeda (to these division-rival Tigers), and so they have made minimal additions to the roster.
So why are the Twins nonetheless this excessive on the record? It’s their division. Detroit might be Minnesota’s greatest competitors within the AL Central, except you suppose the very same Guardians who received 76 video games in 2023 can by some means achieve 10-plus wins in 2024. In case you consider the Tigers – who’ve been extra aggressive this offseason – will likely be that significantly better this 12 months, possibly you suppose they will make a cost.
Nonetheless, the Twins had a nine-game cushion final 12 months, and that was regardless of getting little or no from two of the gamers anticipated to steer the workforce: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Minnesota additionally might get a full season this time round from Royce Lewis (the No. 1 total Draft choose in 2017), who has battled accidents however was unbelievable in 58 video games as a rookie final 12 months. Minnesota nonetheless might take a step ahead in 2024 – however it won’t must on this division.
5. Orioles (AL East)101-61 (2 video games over Rays)
Even with none beginning pitching additions this offseason – and one supposes there may be nonetheless time – the Orioles ought to be thought of the favourite within the AL East. They’ve acquired all of the younger gamers that they had final 12 months, all with one other 12 months’s value of expertise, plus sooner or later they’ll add Jackson Holliday, who might have extra expertise than any of these gamers. (They barely even have house for Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo, all of whom, like Holliday at No. 1, rank amongst MLB Pipeline’s prime 27 prospects.)
However the lack of pitching additions (apart from nearer Craig Kimbrel) has eliminated numerous margin for error, notably on this division, which has some extremely motivated rivals. The Blue Jays are at risk of getting their Vlad Jr.-led core go their complete prime with out profitable a playoff recreation. The Pink Sox have a brand new management group keen to clean the unhealthy style out of their followers’ mouths. The Rays have a great deal of pitching, as all the time, and two future lineup mainstays in Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero about to turn out to be the brand new items they construct round. And the Yankees, beneath immense strain after a disappointing 2023, landed Juan Soto (who’s seeking to make the absolute best free-agent case) and Marcus Stroman.
Every part principally went proper for the Orioles in 2023. Can we rely on that in 2024? The O’s certain appear to be relying on it. The remainder of the division goes to make it powerful.
6. Brewers (NL Central)92-70 (9 video games over Cubs)
It seems that the Brewers didn’t actually dismantle their roster this offseason. Corbin Burnes remains to be right here. So is Devin Williams. So is Freddy Peralta. So is Christian Yelich. So is Willy Adames. Regardless of all of the rumors and scuttlebutt, there was not an exodus of expertise following supervisor Craig Counsell out the door after he left for the Cubs. In truth, there’s expertise coming in, most notably No. 2 total prospect Jackson Chourio, who appears able to step into the lineup on Opening Day after inking a record-setting contract. Plus, if Milwaukee’s reported take care of Rhys Hoskins goes by way of, that ought to present the membership with a much-needed middle-of-the-order bat.
However the Brewers are nonetheless the logical choose on the backside of this record. Their rotation and bullpen each look significantly thinner than final season, which suggests they’ll be relying extra on a lineup that, honest to say, isn’t all the time probably the most dependable or productive. And it stays to be seen if new skipper Pat Murphy is as adept as Counsell was at squeezing probably the most out of his roster.
The division additionally ought to be a lot more durable than it was in 2023. The Reds have added to a core that’s oozing with expertise. The Cubs have their outdated supervisor and have added key items in Shōta Imanaga and Michael Busch – and so they is probably not achieved. The Pirates ought to be higher, and youthful, than they have been in 2023, and bear in mind, they received extra video games final 12 months than they’ve since 2018. And the Cardinals can’t probably repeat the nightmare they went by way of final 12 months. This division seems like a complete tossup. It might go the Brewers’ manner once more. However the path to victory appears a lot narrower.
