Thunder, Warriors, Clippers among NBA teams primed to defy preseason forecasts

One enjoyable factor in regards to the NBA preseason is determining the place my views on a group differ from these of the consensus. I get a imprecise concept simply by studying different individuals’s ideas in regards to the offseason, however the actual check all the time comes later in the summertime. That’s when rosters are full, all my fashions have spit out their numbers, and I’ve one thing I can evaluate to an out of doors consensus.

That “outdoors consensus” is a shifting goal, in fact, however there’s a affordable proxy for it in playing markets. Preseason Las Vegas win-total over/unders, whereas having a slight bias on the “over” facet (we’re all optimists, apparently), supply a helpful benchmark for a group’s mid-tier consequence within the eyes of most people.

With that mentioned, my job is to choose 5 groups that I believe are comparatively more likely to beat their over/below projections (I’ve used BetMGM’s numbers as of Sept. 19) and which of them are more likely to fall brief.

Earlier than we begin, nonetheless, it’s time for a efficiency assessment of my picks from a 12 months in the past. It seems that revising my projection mannequin earlier than final season appears to have helped — or slightly, un-revising it after some adjustments I made forward of 2023-24 produced a subpar prediction efficiency.

Final season, I had the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns beating their preseason numbers and went 4-for-5. Three of these groups, Cleveland, Atlanta and OKC, topped their preseason quantity by greater than 10 wins, and Detroit and Cleveland did so by greater than 15. Phoenix … not a lot.

I’ve my work minimize out to match my efforts from a 12 months in the past, however I’ll give it my greatest. Listed below are 5 groups, together with their over/below marks, that I believe will exceed expectations for the approaching season, beginning with one which already set an especially excessive bar:

Thunder (62.5)

The Thunder’s two largest obstacles to beating this quantity are accidents and tedium. Final 12 months, they received 68 regular-season video games with a historic level differential whereas carrying the league’s youngest minutes-weighted roster, even with each of their key large males (Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein) lacking lengthy stretches.

This 12 months, they’ve the identical group — the highest 13 gamers on the depth chart are precisely the identical — and are mainly in a “identify your win complete” situation. They’ll most likely win 70 in the event that they go all out and dash by the tape, however that appears unlikely, as NBA groups have develop into a lot smarter about leaving gasoline within the tank for the video games that actually matter in Might and June.

Nonetheless, the competitiveness of the remainder of the Western Convention ought to encourage the Thunder to push laborious deep into spring to make sure they’ve the highest seed within the playoffs. Plus, a group like Cleveland or Orlando within the East could rattle off a excessive sufficient win complete to maintain OKC sufficiently motivated to take care of home-court benefit in a possible NBA Finals matchup.

The Thunder even have sufficient depth to rack up wins even when they’re resting gamers within the second half of the season. This group is robust sufficient that a number of issues can go flawed, they usually can nonetheless get to 63 wins. I’m shocked the over isn’t considerably increased.

Clippers (48.5)

The Clippers could also be coping with an enormous penalty from the league workplace sooner or later, however until Adam Silver voids Kawhi Leonard’s contract earlier than Christmas, I’ve a tough time seeing how they find yourself profitable fewer than 50 video games. Final 12 months’s version received 50, with the league’s fifth-best scoring margin, with Leonard enjoying simply 37 video games.

Whereas age is actually a priority, the Clippers’ previous guys have one necessary factor of their favor: All of them have been good final season. Main that group is James Harden, who performed 79 video games in his age-35 season. He can most likely take a couple of extra days off this season as a result of the Clippers have another individuals who can truly dribble, importing Chris Paul and Bradley Beal within the offseason. In addition they have an actual backup heart in Brook Lopez, who provides the Clippers a stretch-five possibility and may take a few of the pressure off starter Ivica Zubac.

When it comes to withstanding the regular-season grind, few groups are higher positioned than LA. The Clippers can are available with a second unit of Paul, Kris Dunn, Bogdan Bogdanović, Derrick Jones, Jr. and Lopez that might cling with most groups’ starters. LA additionally patched its largest weak point by lastly getting a legit energy ahead, parlaying Norman Powell’s profession 12 months into John Collins as soon as it turned clear it might get Beal to take Powell’s spot.

You may argue for some regression from key gamers, notably Zubac (coming off a profession 12 months) and Harden (who could wrestle to copy his earlier work at age 36), and that might present a slight headwind. However the Clippers have massively fortified the roster and have sufficient high quality depth to maintain their previous guys’ legs recent.

Warriors (45.5)

I’m flabbergasted that Golden State’s projected win complete is so low. The Warriors went 30-11 from the time they acquired Jimmy Butler till Stephen Curry harm his hamstring in Recreation 1 of the second spherical in Minnesota. That’s a half-season of excellence that ought to stamp them as a reasonably official contender within the West.

First, let me play satan’s advocate: Golden State is previous, particularly with key gamers Curry, Butler and Draymond Inexperienced all of their mid-30s. There’s a situation the place stuff goes off the rails quick. The Jonathan Kuminga saga nonetheless hangs over the group as we enter coaching camp, and baked into my estimate is an assumption that Kuminga, Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II all will finally signal with the Warriors.

That mentioned, this win complete simply isn’t that tough to prime. The Warriors received 48, 46, 44 and 53 video games the previous 4 seasons, and that was with out Butler. And the NBA typically has a “bubble” of groups that find yourself profitable 45 to 50 video games due to the late-season divide, when playoff groups maintain pushing whereas laggards begin tanking. Final 12 months, 13 groups received not less than 46 video games; the 12 months earlier than, an incredible 18 groups received not less than 46. Will we not assume the Warriors can not less than be one of many league’s 13 greatest groups?

If the Warriors are ready the place they’re wherever near 45 wins down the stretch, they’re seemingly chasing each single win to keep away from the Play-In Match and/or maximize their playoff seeding. That’s how they’re more likely to prime this quantity even when they find yourself being barely disappointing on the ground. They’d must be really mid or worse to fall brief right here.

Bulls (32.5)

Over the past three seasons, the Bulls have received 39, 39 and 40 video games, they usually made the Play-In in every of these three seasons. I’ve a tough time seeing how the script for this season finally ends up being a lot totally different, which is why I’m amazed that their over/below is so low. To realize that over/below would imply that the Bulls fell out of the Play-In race, even within the lowly East, and fell out by such a margin that they began tanking late within the 12 months, which is a method this franchise has by no means embraced.

I additionally wrestle to see how worst-case eventualities might end up that badly for these guys. Chicago isn’t good by any means, but it surely has sufficient depth that it ought to survive the regular-season slog in comparatively fine condition. My projections worth 13 of their 15 gamers at above substitute stage, with the fifteenth being rookie Noa Essengue. (The opposite one is, um, beginning heart Nikola Vučević. Let’s transfer on.)

Anyway, “no horrible minutes” isn’t an upside technique, but it surely delivers a fairly dependable flooring. The Bulls even have some upside outs within the second-year model of Matas Buzelis, the still-young Josh Giddey and the truth that each key participant besides Vučević is of their 20s.

The Bulls didn’t precisely crumble after the Zach LaVine commerce in 2024-25, going 17-13 of their remaining 30 video games, they usually’re bringing again primarily the identical group. Domination isn’t within the playing cards, however Vegas has set the bar ankle-high. I’d be very shocked if the Bulls misplaced 50 video games within the East.

Jazz (18.5)

Jazz can be unhealthy this season, principally as a result of the Jazz can be motivated to be unhealthy. Ending with one of many league’s backside 4 data is crucial, because it ensures a top-eight protected draft decide that they owe to the Thunder received’t be conveyed. (After this season, that obligation vanishes, and the Thunder get nothing.)

Nonetheless, 18.5 wins is an extremely low bar. (Not so low that the Jazz can’t hit it, thoughts you — they solely received 17 video games a 12 months in the past.) However this season, they need to be higher regardless of themselves. Largely, that’s as a result of (in the event you watched any of EuroBasket) Lauri Markkanen seems to be again to his All-Star type, vastly higher than the sore-back-addled model of Markkanen we noticed final season.

To present you an concept of how low that 18.5 determine is, solely 9 groups within the final decade have completed a season with 18 or fewer wins (prorating for the 2 COVID-shortened seasons). Not one of the others had a wholesome All-Star who was on the roster the complete season. And sure, I do anticipate Markkanen to be on the roster all 12 months. (Veterans on expiring offers resembling Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love and Georges Niang? Not a lot.)

Moreover, a few of the extra tragic minutes the Jazz handed to children can’t presumably get any worse. Amongst gamers with not less than 1,000 minutes performed, Cody Williams and Isaiah Collier have been two of the 4 worst gamers within the league by BPM. They’ll both play higher or lose minutes to different new younger gamers, and regardless of how uncooked this season’s crop is (led by Ace Bailey), they’ll have bother replicating the unfavourable stats of final season’s first-round duo.

This takes us to the opposite level about Utah: Sure, I anticipate them to have interaction in some late-season shenanigans if they should guarantee their place within the backside 4. However the win complete required to cement a bottom-four place is more likely to be within the excessive 20s, not wherever close to 18. My projected fifth-worst group has 30 wins, which suggests Utah needs to be comfortably within the clear to maintain its draft decide by mid-March. Even within the West, a Utah group with Markkanen and Walker Kessler that not less than kind of tries ought to have the ability to keep away from 60 losses.

(High photograph of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins and James Harden: Joshua Gateley / Getty Photographs)