With two seasons finished and one left earlier than the following lower for promotion and relegation, a take a look at the standings. Issues look full of life for 2025 with Astana and Arkéa already beneath the road for relegation however would one or each enroll at this time for relegation if they might have the assure their workforce stayed afloat for 2026 and past? In the meantime Uno-X are on the up and Cofidis and DSM Firmenich-PostNL have causes to be nervous.
Guidelines reminderEvery three years the top-18 males’s groups qualify for WorldTeam standing, which incorporates the precise to begin all the key races together with the golden ticket of the Tour de France. The present cycle is 2023, 2024 and 2025 so there’s one season coming as much as decide which groups transfer up or down. WorldTeams beneath 18th place face relegation. Groups are ranked by the haul of factors annually by their 20 best-scoring riders. You may see level and rankings tables right here.
Does it matter?Many a workforce supervisor will say variations “we simply need to win, we don’t care about factors as they’ll observe with victory” but two sentences later display the recall to know what number of factors go to seventh place in a 1.Professional or the factors for ending twelfth within the Vuelta and so forth. Briefly a number of groups don’t prefer to admit it however are quietly obsessed by factors and it drives race applications, recruitment and race techniques.
The worry is relegated groups could not survive. As soon as they lose the understanding of a Tour de France begin sponsors could not stick round, riders received’t need to be part of and so forth. Lotto-Dstny and IPT show this isn’t true however one is a nationwide establishment; the opposite a private hobbyhorse so there are causes they’re nonetheless going however backed by ongoing funding that’s saved them aggressive as de facto WorldTeams.
If at this time was tomorrow…
That’s the standings for 2023 and 2024 with 2025 to go. There are two ProTeams within the top-18 above the pink line: Lotto-Dstny and Israel-PremierTech. As issues stand they’ll look ahead to promotion. This may come on the expense of Astana and Arkéa-B&B Accommodations which sit beneath 18th place.
What modified in 2024?
This chart exhibits the factors haul for 2024 solely with the extent of UAE’s season seen from house. Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale loved virtually a dream season – the Tour de France was the nightmare – and they also sure up from seventeenth place to eleventh within the 2023-2024 rankings because of a season that noticed them pip Ineos.
On the different finish of the size Uno-X are actually scoring alongside WorldTeams. Bahrain had a tricky time. Cofidis fared worse, they loved a good 2023 however plummeted down the tables in 2024 to place themselves in relegation hazard.
All to journey for?
The chart right here zooms in on the groups across the relegation zone. With one season to go there’s loads to race for. Astana have now employed 11 new riders with Matteo Malucelli the lastest. The workforce sits 4,700 factors behind Cofidis in 18th place and that’s a a chasm to shut. It might simply be achievable on situation of getting a fantastic season and others being caught. All the brand new hires are vital however inadequate, the arduous half will probably be creating the surroundings for them to attain, to spend a part of the workforce’s funds on coaching camps, efficiency enhancements and racing on as many fronts as doable.
Arkéa-B&B have extra factors however wanting forward they’re in hassle. Think about sizzling air balloonists jettisoning ballast to get some carry, solely right here they’re lobbing their greatest riders overboard. Clément Champoussin has joined Astana, Dan McLay to Visma and Vincenzo Albanese is reportedly going to EF too. A weak workforce already, they might fare worse in 2025 though they’ll hope signings Arnaud Démare and Florian Sénéchal perk up and Kévin Vauquelin begins to ship extra on his expertise
Each groups will need to keep up however there’s a secondary contest to rank as excessive as doable throughout 2025 alone as UCI guidelines stipulate automated invitations to grand excursions go to the perfect two groups exterior the World Tour on the 2025 rankings. So if Astana can’t get out of the deficit created in 2023-24, they’ll intention to attain massive in 2025 and nonetheless qualify by proper for the 2026 Tour de France.
Existential questionsAlas we will speculate additional. Arkéa-B&B should not unloading fine quality riders in the mean time by selection. Plus the workforce’s title sponsorship offers run out on the finish of subsequent yr, the squad might expire earlier than being relegated if the sponsorship isn’t secured and that is the place issues intertwine, it’s not a straightforward deal to land given they’re going through relegation and should not journey the Tour de France sooner or later.
In the meantime Astana aren’t on the UCI’s checklist of groups for 2025. That is an admin difficulty, the UCI says some groups “didn’t submit all of the important paperwork earlier than the deadline of 15 October 2024 and are due to this fact not included within the checklist”. Nonetheless there’s vary right here from Astana being a day late with one PDF to basic issues with the workforce’s capability to fund itself subsequent season given it’s speculated to be funded by a motorcycle model that appears to be spending extra on a workforce than the likes of Trek, Specialised or Pinarello.
If both or each relegated groups don’t exist come 2025 or 2026 then the one seen change can be when it comes to invites to grand excursions, as an alternative of the perfect two groups of 2025 robotically invited it could be greatest three. We’re a good distance from this… however now .
Cofidis vs Uno-X
To date two groups up, two groups down. However there may very well be a 3rd battle with Uno-X closing in on Cofidis, the French workforce was completed 4,000 factors forward in 2023 however the Norwegians have halved this hole in 2024. This units up a good 2025 particularly with Cofidis shedding two of their prime scorers in Axel Zingle and Guillaume Martin. In come Emanuel Buchmann, Alex Aranburu and Simon Carr they usually’ll should settle right into a workforce that’s having a tricky time.
Extra groups in hassle?DSM Firmenich-PostNL are simply 407 factors forward of Cofidis proper now too. They need to be okay given the roster after some dangerous luck this yr however that’s the purpose, they’re near the drop due to this and extra hiccups spell hassle.
Intermarché-Wanty are 1,700 factors above DSM which must be okay however be aware their reliance on Biniam Girmay, he’s proportionally essential to them like Pogačar and Evenepoel to UAE and Soudal-QS bringing a 3rd of their factors so there’s the danger of stalling with harm or sickness.
Wildcard invitesNext yr’s invitations to the grand excursions will see the perfect two non-WorldTeams on the 2024 rankings (not 2023-2024 mixed) and it’s Lotto and IPT anyway. This leaves two elective locations for organisers however issues get dynamic with a sport of musical chairs. Lotto turned down the Giro in 2024 they usually’re prone to do the identical subsequent yr given belt-tightening which frees up an area. Tudor may love to do the Giro given the corporate has sponsored RCS races however now has its eye on the Tour de France with the likes of Julian Alaphilippe and Marc Hirschi as candidates to displace Uno-X or TotalEnergies. We’ll see nonetheless see Caja Rural, Kern Pharma and Euskaltel-Euskadi jostling for 2 locations on the Vuelta.
ConclusionEverything factors to Lotto and IPT again the World Tour for 2026. Who goes down at their expense? Astana are effectively behind however they’ve been on a buying spree to recruit 11 riders so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if they’ll shut the hole in 2025. Assuming their paperwork will get authorized it’ll be a narrative for 2025. Arkéa-B&B Accommodations have extra factors proper now however ought to battle subsequent yr as they lose worthwhile riders and thus far haven’t signed anybody resembling a substitute, plus they threat slipping right into a vicious spiral the place the spectre of relegation scares off sponsors. Plus we might see a 3rd promotion-relegation contest if Uno-X thrive and Cofidis dive.
One additional motive why all this issues is the combo of reforms coming after 2026. Final time promotion and relegation was simply that, up or down. Now the game is supposed to be taking a special form – how a lot stays to be seen – and being on the prime might present extra of say, a special calendar and probably extra funding. Groups and managers don’t need to miss out.
