UFC 305’s best betting props, parlays and picks | DDP vs. Izzy

UFC 305 goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 17, 2024) from inside RAC Area in Perth, Australia. The pay-per-view (PPV) important occasion has Dricus Du Plessis trying to defend his Middleweight title for the primary time. His opposition would be the returning Israel Adesanya, who has held that belt over two reigns and efficiently defended it on 5 events. The co-main for this one is Steve Erceg, who’s coming off an unsuccessful UFC Flyweight title shot in Brazil. In his hometown he’ll tackle Kai Kara-France.

Rounding out the principle card we’ve Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker at Light-weight/All-Violence, Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik at Heavyweight and Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates at Welterweight.

The late “Prelims” headliner is Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker. The early “Prelims” function Tom Nolan towards Alex Reyes.

As at all times, there’s tons to guess on this card (see it right here), and we’ve received odds for all of the fights beneath:

UFC 305 Primary Card Cash Line Odds

Dricus Du Plessis (+105) vs. Israel Adesanya (-125)

It will likely be 343 days between Israel Adesanya’s gorgeous loss to Sean Strickland in Toronto and his scheduled assembly with Dricus Du Plessis in Perth. In opposition to Strickland he regarded off. It occurred round a time when he was having private points (therefore the ‘He isn’t your financial institution’ T-shirt) and authorized points (resulting from a drink driving arrest). After the loss to Strickland, Adesanya stated he wanted a while away from the game. Personally, I don’t assume lower than a 12 months is adequate (particularly if you issue numerous the time spent doing promotion and a battle camp) and I fear he could be coming again too early.

Adesanya turned 35 final month. That could be one of many causes’ Adesanya’s hiatus turned a ‘brief break’. If he’d taken a professional break from the game and returned in a 12 months or two there’s a superb probability he wouldn’t be aggressive towards the rising crop of prime UFC Middleweights.

The stress to get again within the cage now, earlier than the window actually closes on his athletic prime, coupled with the conditions round his earlier losses, imply — for me — the vibes are off for Adesanya right here.

If he had confronted Du Plessis three years in the past I’ve no doubts that he would have been capable of snipe him from vary and put him down inside three rounds. Nonetheless, I’m not that assured of that occuring this time round, particularly given the truth that the 30-year-old Du Plessis remains to be trending barely upwards in his profession.

In his prime Adesanya feasted on fighters like Du Plessis; guys who come forwards with reckless abandonment (see his wins over Derek Brunson [here], Paulo Costa [here] and Robert Whittaker [here]).

We all know Du Plessis goes to cost Adesanya. What is going to decide the battle is whether or not Adesanya remains to be as composed and scientific as he was in his championship years. If that’s the case, then Du Plessis goes to stroll into one thing and get put to sleep. If Adesanya isn’t sharp, mentally and/or bodily, then Du Plessis will be capable of hit him and take him down earlier than these counters can land.

I believe if Du Plessis is ready to put stress on Adesanya, and never get checked with a tough jab or kick on the best way in, he might make this battle very robust for The Final StyleBender.

Du Plessis leads the Middleweight division with 6.49 important strikes landed per minute. The counter-striker Adesanya lands solely 3.93. Adesanya’s strikes have traditionally been extra significant, although (eliciting a division main variety of knockdowns).

Adesanya’s hanging protection doesn’t look excellent on paper. 56% places him barely within the prime ten of his division. Nonetheless, if you have a look at his latest fights he’s been spectacular in permitting only a few strikes from identified quantity strikers.

Strickland landed 137 in 5 rounds in his win over Adesanya. Strickland landed 173 towards Du Plessis and 182 towards Costa.

Jared Cannonier landed simply 90 in his 5 rounds loss to Adesanya. Cannonier landed 141 on Strickland and 241 on Cannonier.

Whittaker landed simply 59 over 5 rounds of their rematch. He landed 74 and 95 strikes in three spherical fights with Marvin Vettori and Costa.

The Adesanya we’re most accustomed to seeing has a superb probability of avoiding numerous Du Plessis’ offense. However I’m torn on whether or not we see that Adesanya right here (or ever once more).

One other factor to think about is that Adesanya’s capability to not take numerous strikes/punishment over his profession has been helped by his nice takedown protection (77%). On this battle, although, I believe Du Plessis will reach taking him down. Du Plessis was capable of take Strickland down six occasions (on eleven makes an attempt) to win the title. Strickland’s takedown protection can also be 77%. Du Plessis was additionally capable of take down Whittaker and Brunson, too, each of whom have takedown defenses of over 80%.

In conclusion, I’d like to see Adesanya rewind the clock and declare again his title with a scientific KO win over the anti-popular Du Plessis. Nonetheless, I simply don’t see it occurring. I fear that Adesanya’s mindset won’t be repaired but and, even whether it is, his declining athleticism and velocity ought to permit Du Plessis to get near him. I predict Du Plessis can land near 100 strikes and half a dozen takedowns on this battle. I believe that’s a recipe for resolution win or a late TKO.

Choose: Dricus Du Plessis through TKO, spherical 4.

Kai Kara-France (+150) vs. Steve Erceg (-180)

The final time we noticed Steve Erceg is was when he threw away his UFC Flyweight title shot at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro. Erceg was lighting Alexandre Pantoja up on the ft within the first few rounds of their battle. Nonetheless, within the halfway level of the competition he determined to strive mixing issues up. He went away from what was working for him and engaged Pantoja in prolonged clinch and grappling battles that allowed the Brazilian again into the battle and finally resulted in him shedding a choice. Erceg was close to tears after the bout, I believe as a result of he should have realized he was successful this factor and would have been taking a belt house to Perth if he had simply stored the battle standing.

He’s again in Perth now, albeit with out a belt. And he has Kai Kara-France as his opponent. The oddsmakers have him as the favourite and that’s a superb place to take if Erceg has discovered from his mistake. Exterior of that battle Erceg has appeared like a heady particular person so I believe there’s a good probability we see him pile on the stress subsequent time he has an opponent in bother.

Kara-France has been out of motion for over a 12 months. His final battle was a break up resolution loss to Amir Albazi within the UFC APEX. That battle got here a 12 months after his earlier bout, a TKO loss to Brandon Moreno for the interim Flyweight title (see that right here). The 12 months lengthy break between the Moreno and Albazi battle was resulting from a knee harm. The 12 months lengthy break between the Albazi battle and now was resulting from a concussion, which took him out of a deliberate battle with Manel Kape final September.

The scorecards within the Albazi battle have been a lot criticized, with the overwhelming majority of media scores ruling in favor of Kara-France (per MMA Choices). Although I scored the battle for Kara-France, I don’t assume this was a theft. It was only a very shut battle with quite a few rounds that might go both approach.

I like Erceg to win this battle. I believe he erased numerous questions over his power of schedule by taking Pantoja to 5 rounds and completely drubbing him on the ft. He’s preventing somebody extra tried and examined than him, once more, however I believe I’m optimistic that Erceg shall be improved after his expertise of preventing for the title.

I’m involved about Kara-France’s lengthy lay-off and I don’t assume he can out-wrestler Erceg the best way Pantoja did ought to he really feel he’s coming off second finest within the hanging exchanges.

Prediction: Steve Erceg through resolution.

Mateusz Gamrot (-340) vs. Dan Hooker (+260)

Dan Hooker is an enormous underdog towards Mateusz Gamrot right here in Australia. The Kiwi is coming off an exhilarating backwards and forwards battle with Jalin Turner final July. That was over a 12 months in the past, although. He was resulting from battle King Inexperienced in December however needed to pull out of that resulting from an arm harm.

Hooker’s win over Turner adopted his physique kick end over Claudio Puelles (see that right here). These wins got here after fast losses to Arnold Allen (see it right here) and future champion Islam Makhachev (see that right here).

He’s been given a troublesome opponent right here within the type of Mateusz Gamrot. Every time he’s fought somebody of an analogous stature Hooker’s faltered (see his losses to Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler), so I can definitely see why the bookies assume Gamrot will come out on prime down underneath.

Gamrot has gained three straight; towards a fairly washed Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev (resulting from harm) and Jalin Turner (a break up resolution). These wins got here after he was shut out by Beneil Dariush. Gamrot’s finest win within the promotion, on paper, is his unanimous resolution over Arman Tsarukyan. Nonetheless, I and lots of different onlookers assume Tsarukyan gained that battle.

Gamrot vs. Hooker is a fairly even battle if it simply occurs on the ft. Each are nice strikers. Gamrot’s persistence and effectivity and Hooker’s attain and aggressiveness make the stand-up battle a wash for me. I believe each will be capable of land on the opposite, however I’ve doubts that both will be capable of put the opposite one away standing.

I believe Gamrot’s takedowns would be the decider on this bout, one thing he used to dominate Dos Anjos final day out. Hooker has nice takedown protection on paper at 80% (Gamrot’s is 90%, by the best way). However he’s not confronted numerous guys in his profession who make the takedown a focus of their assault. He’s largely fought guys who’re as completely happy as he’s to face and bang. The one opponents he’s fought within the UFC with a takedowns per 15 minute common increased than 2.00 are Puelles, Makhachev, Chandler, Gilbert Burns and Hatsu Hioki.

He evaded eight of eight takedowns from Puelles, however these weren’t precisely stellar takedown makes an attempt — they have been largely Puelles rolling for leg locks or him flopping forwards from too distant. He was taken down as soon as (on one try) by Makhachev and submitted. Chandler didn’t try any takedowns of their battle. Burns tried one takedown and didn’t convert. Hioki went 2 for five (again in 2015). So I don’t assume that 80% takedown protection score is far to jot down house about (particularly if you happen to take away his success towards a very poor trying Puelles).

Gamrot is a keen, and efficient, takedown artist and that could possibly be an actual nightmare for Hooker on this match-up.

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot through unanimous resolution.

Tai Tuivasa (+180) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-220)

Tai Tuivasa is in a gap proper now. He’s misplaced his final 4, all by stoppage. Two of them have been through TKO. Now, admittedly, that’s come towards a assassin’s row of Ciryl Gane (see that TKO right here), Sergei Pavlovich (see that TKO right here) and Alexander Volkov.

The UFC haven’t executed him any favors right here, although. In his house nation he’s been given one other heavy hitter who will in all probability be capable of discover and check his chin on Saturday night time.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik outlasted Shamil Gaziev final day out. Previous to that he was choked out by Jailton Almeida (see that right here). That got here after he scored his seventh TKO win in UFC, with a 23 second victory over Chris Daukaus (see that right here).

Tuivasa has change into a fighter who will simply stand in entrance of you and check to see if you happen to’re highly effective sufficient to knock him out. He’s by no means tried a takedown in UFC and his hanging protection is a porous 43%. He absorbs 5.05 important strikes a minute, which is dreadful and harmful, particularly at Heavyweight.

Rozenstruik has a 3 inch attain benefit on Tuivasa and it’ll simply be a matter of time earlier than Bigi Boy rings Bam Bam’s bell.

Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik through KO, spherical 1.

Li Jingliang (+250) vs. Carlos Prates (-320)

Veteran Muay Thai fighter Carlos Prates continued to look slick within the Octagon when he took out Charles Radkte with a hellacious knee to the physique a number of months in the past (watch it right here).

This battle shall be occurring on Prates’ thirty first birthday. He’s not that lengthy within the tooth, however he has had numerous fights throughout that point and that’s not together with the various bouts he’s racked up in Muay Thai reveals that don’t seem on Tapology. In professional MMA he has two fights fewer than Li Jingliang, who’s 5 years older than him.

Li’s profession has already hit its ceiling. His loss to final gate-keeper Neil Magny in 2020 confirmed he was by no means more likely to break into the highest 5 at Welterweight. Since then he beat Santiago Ponznibbio through KO (see it right here), was smeshed by Khamzat Chimaev (see that right here) and TKO’d Muslim Salikhov (see it right here). In his final bout he misplaced a break up resolution to Daniel Rodriguez.

Prates is an honest favorite right here and that’s due to his youth and his huge seven inch attain benefit.

Prates ought to be capable of chew the Leech up in hanging exchanges, patiently jabbing away at him from vary and touchdown counters when Li tries to shut distance. Li has by no means been stopped by strikes, so it might be an enormous feather in his cap if Prates might pull that off. His strikes are nasty and properly positioned, so I believe he has an opportunity to do this. If not, although, I nonetheless see him hitting and hurting Li sufficient that he’s capable of cruise to a choice.

Prediction: Carlos Prates through unanimous resolution

UFC 305 ‘Late Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Junior Tafa (-120) vs. Valter Walker (Evens)

A battle of low output Heavyweights. Not precisely the battle to get people’ excited and persuade them to purchase the PPV.

Junior Tafa was beat up by Marcos Rogerio de Lima final day out (after coming in on brief discover to interchange his brother). Earlier than that he KO’d Parker Porter (see that right here). He misplaced his UFC debut to Mohammed Usman through unanimous resolution.

Valter Walker misplaced his UFC debut to Lukasz Brzeski in April. He was undefeated previous to that. Although, the largest identify on his file is Mike Perry’s BFF Alex Nicholson.

Neither of those guys are UFC stage (as if which means something these days). Walker is a really massive man. He couldn’t make that depend towards Brzeski, although. He was capable of get takedowns, however his hanging was so dreadful that Brzeski’s work on the ft was capable of cancel out all of the management time he received on the bottom.

Tafa ought to be capable of replicate what Brzeski did for a lacklustre resolution win.

Prediction: Junior Tafa through resolution.

Josh Culibao (-150) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+125)

It is a fairly evenly matched battle. Each guys have had an analogous up and down profession in UFC, up to now, with losses to robust opponents. Culibao misplaced a break up resolution to Danny Silva final day out and misplaced to latest headliner Lerone Murphy, through unanimous resolution, earlier than that. Ricardo Ramos is coming off back-to-back guillotine choke losses to Julian Erosa and Charles Jourdain. Culibao has the slight benefit on the ft, however Ramos poses extra of a menace within the grappling division (3.02 takedowns per quarter-hour and 60% accuracy). Culibao has respectable, however not stellar, takedown protection (67%).

I like Ramos on this battle resulting from his extra various assault. Culibao will hope this battle is all hanging, however I’m not satisfied he can power that to occur.

Prediction: Ricardo Ramos through resolution.

Casey O’Neill (+145) vs. Luana Santos (-175)

Luana Santos simply submit Mariya Agapova a month in the past, with little or no bother. That made her 3-0 in UFC, following wins over Stephanie Egger and Juliana Miller (through TKO). That has earned her a step-up in competitors and a battle with Casey O’Neill.

After a superb begin to her UFC profession, which included wins over Antonina Shevchenko and Roxanne Modafferi, O’Neill has misplaced to Jennifer Maia and Ariane Lipski Da Silva.

O’Neill is a quantity distance striker who lands 8.41 important strikes per minute. That leads all energetic UFC fighters. That stat could be way more spectacular if she wasn’t absorbing 6.3 important strikes a minute herself.

Santos lands 5.33 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.21. She additionally scores two takedowns per quarter-hour and makes an attempt two submissions per quarter-hour. She’s the extra well-rounded fighter right here and her strikes have extra snap and menace to them than O’Neill’s. She’s coming in on brief discover (changing Tereza Bleda), however I believe she’s one to look at at Flyweight and I believe she’ll be capable of dangle with O’Neill on the ft and get her in bother on the bottom.

Prediction: Luana Santos through submission, spherical 2.

Jack Jenkins (-850) vs. Herbert Burns (+500)

Herbert Burns is one in every of our largest underdogs on the cardboard. He’s not regarded nice in UFC. Julio Arce TKO’d him in March (see that right here). That was after a two 12 months lay-off. Earlier than the lay-off he was exhausted by Invoice Algeo (see that right here) and crucified by Daniel Pineda (test that out right here). He’s 36 now and I doubt UFC will hold him round after this battle, win or lose. Even when he’s doing them a strong by flying out to Australia on brief discover to fill in for Gavin Tucker.

Jack Jenkins got here off the Contender Sequence in 2022. The Australian beat Don Shainis and Jamall Emmers earlier than shedding to Chepe Marsical in his final battle (resulting from an harm). He’s one other fighter who hasn’t fought for near a 12 months.

Burns has some dimension on Jenkins, however he’s additionally 36, not very energetic, and coming off a nasty loss.

Prediction: Jack Jenkins through TKO, spherical 2.

UFC 305 ‘Early Prelims’ Underneath Card Odds

Tom Nolan (-1150) vs. Alex Reyes (+650)

Tom Nolan is an enormous favourite on this battle. He final fought in Might, beating Victor Martinez as a -500 favourite. That win received him to 1-1 in UFC, having been TKO’d by Nikolas Motta in his debut (see that right here).

Nolan was dropped within the Martinez battle earlier than he was capable of land the knee that may successfully finish Martinez’s night time. It was a superb end for Nolan, however the efficiency was a bit underwhelming contemplating that Martinez had fought simply twice previously 5 years.

Alex Reyes is coming off two stoppage losses. Final September he was TKO’d by Charlie Campbell (see it right here) and earlier than that he was knocked out by a Mike Perry knee (see that right here). These fights (his solely within the UFC) have been six years aside.

Nolan is a really massive Light-weight, however he gained’t have a attain benefit over Reyes. He’s a really uncooked, and considerably sloppy, expertise at this level of his profession. He’s been given one other opponent like Martinez although, somebody older, slower and who has barely been energetic over the previous half decade. He’ll doubtless win, however this battle gained’t inform us a lot about him if he does.

Prediction: Tom Nolan through KO, spherical 1.

Tune Kenan (-195) vs. Ricky Glenn (+165)

One other battle with older guys who’re but to compete on this calendar 12 months. Enjoyable.

Tune Kenan and Ricky Glenn have a mixed age of 70 and a mixed UFC file of 9-9. Tremendous enjoyable.

Tune is coming off a bruising loss to Kevin Jousset in December. Glenn was viciously TKO’d by Drew Dober in October (see it right here). Previous to that he was KO’d by Christos Giagos.

This battle is going on at Welterweight. Glenn, determined to shake-up his battle profession, is a former Featherweight.

Each these guys shall be all the way down to scrap, however neither have a lot of a chin to see them by such scraps. Somebody goes down and I’ll belief the pure Welterweight to be the hammer and never the nail right here.

Prediction: Tune Kenan through TKO, spherical 2.

Stewart Nicoll (-240) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+195)

Stewart Nicoll is making his promotional debut at UFC 305. He’s 8-0 after time spent completely on the Aussie circuit. He’s received numerous potential, although. Jesus Aguilar is 2-1 in UFC. He was submitted in his UFC debut towards Tatsuro Taira (no disgrace in that). After that he KO’d Shannon Ross in 17 seconds (see it right here). He additionally has a win over Edgar Chairez exterior of the UFC.

The bookies have purchased the hype on Nicoll. I haven’t seen sufficient of him to clap again on that, so I’ll facet with Vegas.

Prediction: Stewart Nicoll through resolution.

UFC 305 Prop Bets And Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look attention-grabbing (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC 305 card …

Two choose parlay: Jairzinho Rozenstruik to beat Tai Tuivasa and Mateusz Gamrot to defeat Dan Hooker (-114)

I believe it’s going to be a foul night time for Oceania with a lot of Aussies and Kiwis accumulating Ls. Two of these house nation fighters with the worst match-ups are Tai Tuivasa and Dan Hooker. Tuivasa has been used for goal practise currently and I don’t assume Rozenstruik will miss his probabilities to place him away. Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot might placed on a enjoyable brawl, however I believe Gamrot goes to have the ability to take the Hangman down (on repeat) for a convincing win.

Mateusz Gamrot takedowns landed – Over 4.5 (+100)

I believe this whole is de facto low for this battle. I believe it’s been set at 4.5 resulting from Dan Hooker’s takedown protection (80%). Nonetheless, as I defined above, I don’t assume that’s an correct reflection on his capability to cease Gamrot taking him down on this battle. In opposition to Rafael dos Anjos in his final battle, Gamrot scored 11 takedowns (which says extra about RDA than him, sadly). Earlier than that he was 1 of 6 towards Fiziev over one and a half rounds (Fiziev has a legit takedown protection of 89%, although). In earlier bouts he took Jailin Turner (74% takedown protection) down 4 occasions, Beneil Dariush (80% takedown protection) down 4 occasions and Arman Tsarukyan (75% takedown protection) down six occasions.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates to go to a choice (+150)

I believe this can be a robust battle for each males. Li is one of the best MMA fighter Prates has ever confronted, even with the truth that Li has declined significantly from his peak years. Li additionally has a heck of a chin and he’s by no means been stopped. I believe Prates will win this battle, however I believe Li shall be robust sufficient to face up to the strikes he’ll get thrown at him (even ones which have been adequate to place down the likes of Charles Radkte and Trevin Giles). Li has scored his justifiable share of stoppages, however I don’t assume he’ll cease Prates on Saturday night time.

Prates is hard as hell, too. He has one TKO loss on his file. I’ve watched it. It was a bout with Mikhail Romanchuk in China in 2017. It regarded kinda mounted to me, with Prates preventing underneath the identify Carlos Vega. He didn’t throw a punch all the battle and simply wrapped up Romanchuk and allowed him to wing punches at his shoulders till he known as the ref over and advised him to cease the battle. Anyhow, I digress. I believe this battle goes to the judges’ scorecards.

UFC 305 Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of probably the most?

What else are you liking for this occasion? Hit us up within the feedback beneath.

Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of all the UFC 305 battle card, beginning with the “Prelims” play-by-play proper right here and adopted by the “Primary Card” play-by-play proper right here. The motion begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET. These are adopted by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ earlier than the principle card begin time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

To take a look at the most recent and biggest UFC 305: “Du Plessis vs. Adesanya” information and notes you’ll want to hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.