Jon Jones has been ready a very long time for this even when nobody else has.
When Jones captured a vacant heavyweight title with an absolute drubbing of Ciryl Gane at UFC 285, few took subject with the suggestion that Jones’ first protection could possibly be in opposition to Stipe Miocic, a fellow legend of the sport. Miocic holds the report for many profitable consecutive defenses (3) within the division and he defended it 4 instances complete throughout two reigns.
The issue is that Jones’ title win occurred in March. Of 2023.
Miocic hasn’t fought since his second title run was ended by a Francis Ngannou knockout in March. Of 2021. He hasn’t gained a combat since August 2020.
And through all this time, a promising heavyweight named Tom Aspinall ascended to the highest of the division with a superb run of knockouts in opposition to prime opponents. Aspinall is at the moment the interim champion, has already defended it as soon as in opposition to Curtis Blaydes to avenge his lone UFC loss, and he stands at No. 1 within the MMA Combating International Rankings whereas Jones and Miocic have each been eliminated for inactivity.
We’ve all needed to settle for that Jones was by no means going to combat Aspinall this 12 months (it needs to be famous Jones spent a lot of the primary half of 2024 recovering from a pectoral harm) and may by no means combat Aspinall, so all we will do is recognize that we’re about to see the dream matchup of Jones vs. Miocic—even when it’s a tad previous it’s greatest earlier than date.
In different most important card motion, light-weight contenders Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler rematch in a five-round co-headliner, undefeated middleweight prospect Bo Nickal takes on the problem of veteran Paul Craig, top-15 flyweight Viviane Araujo appears to snap Karine Silva’s 10-fight win streak, and Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop look to open the pay-per-view with a spotlight.
What: UFC 309
The place: Madison Sq. Backyard in New York
When: Saturday, Nov. 16. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Hulu, adopted by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN+, ESPNews, FX, and Hulu at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight most important card begins at 10 p.m. ET completely on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses point out standing within the MMA Combating International Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Placing apart all of the bullshit, that is nonetheless Jon Jones we’re speaking about right here. And when the cage door closes, Jon Jones continues to be fairly rattling good.
There have been some shut requires Jones in recent times, however I’ve at all times been a believer that Jones is at his worst when he doesn’t have the correct motivation (see: Dominick Reyes, Thiago Santos). Whereas that’s a simple excuse to make for “Bones” each time he has an off-night, it’s honest to distinction these performances with when he’s at his greatest.
He manhandled Ciryl Gane, an athletic heavyweight who offered Jones with severe issues on paper (uh, apart from within the takedown protection division). Alexander Gustafsson, certainly one of Jones’ first actual assessments, didn’t make it previous Spherical 3 when Jones was locked in for the rematch. He holds two convincing wins over Daniel Cormier (certainly one of which has been erased from historical past as a consequence of a failed drug check, however nonetheless!).
Though a few of his most memorable moments have been years again, I’ve no purpose to imagine he’s misplaced his one-of-a-kind mixture of expertise. Elite wrestling. Vicious ground-and-pound. Irritating distance hanging. Nigh-impenetrable protection. Clinch work that’s possibly the very best we’ve ever seen from a blended martial artist.
It sounds ridiculous to brush off Stipe Miocic as solely having a puncher’s probability, however what else can we do once we’re debating the percentages for a fighter that lately celebrated his forty second birthday and hasn’t gained a combat in over 4 years? Miocic by no means had that air of conceitedness and invincibility like Jones, which is without doubt one of the causes his time on the prime so compelling.
Miocic is a good wrestler and has greater than sufficient energy to harm Jones if he’s capable of shut the space. That’s such an unlimited “if.” Jones has such a velocity and athleticism benefit over Miocic that there’s nearly no approach he will get caught early until he fully underestimates the challenger. And if Miocic will get too shut, Jones will look to dump him on his again. If (there’s that phrase once more) Miocic can stuff a takedown or two, then this combat will get attention-grabbing.
There’s simply too some ways for Jones to win right here and this undoubtedly falls into the class of fights he’s motivated for. He hasn’t shut up about it for over a 12 months!
So we’re getting Good Jon Jones on Saturday night time as he provides one other spectacular identify to his hit record. After that, we will get again to endlessly pontificating on what he may do subsequent.
Decide: Jones
Charles Oliveira (4, P4P-17) vs. Michael Chandler
That is such a harmful combat for Charles Oliveira with little upside, I’m really getting severe upset vibes. What does he acquire from beating Michael Chandler once more? Wouldn’t it actually earn him one other shot at Islam Makhachev? Or if Makhachev loses to Arman Tsarukyan in a still-to-be-booked title combat, would Oliveira get a rematch with Tsarukyan, who simply beat him in a aggressive combat this previous April?
He undoubtedly doesn’t have as many apparent causes to be motivated as Chandler. “Iron Mike” can avenge a loss, steal the present at Madison Sq. Backyard, and probably slip right into a title shot after losing the previous two years chasing Conor McGregor. We will criticize Chandler all we wish for his dogged pursuit of McGregor, however he by some means at all times finds a approach to preserve his identify close to the entrance of the contender line.
As unusual because the timing is for this rematch, it ought to make for a compelling bout. Oliveira is at all times able to threat it for the biscuit and you’ll guess Chandler might be there at each flip to fulfill him head on. I’m at all times going to favor “Do Bronx” on this situation, so he ought to shut the door on this non-feud, this time forcing a faucet from Chandler.
Decide: Oliveira
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
High quality reserving right here as Bo Nickal has a legit check forward of him in Paul Craig. That’s an enormous step up from Cody Brundage, Val Woodburn, and Jamie Pickett.
That stated, Craig can also be the proper identify to usher a prospect alongside. He’s on the opposite aspect of 35, he’s in a 1-4 hunch (with all of his losses coming in opposition to high quality fighters), and he’s extremely vulnerable to a end. Even higher, he has some spectacular wins to his identify, so if Nickal beats him, he will get to say he beat the man who beat the blokes. Sensible approach to push a prospect.
Nickal is the most important favourite on the cardboard for good purpose. He’s aggressive, explosive, and, oh yeah, he can wrestle a bit of. Craig is an keen grappler relating to preventing off of his again, however that might be a mistake with Nickal bearing down on him. I see Craig trying to make use of his veteran guile to lure Nickal right into a lure solely to be obliterated on the bottom.
Decide: Nickal
Viviane Araujo (12) vs. Karine Silva
This matchup isn’t getting the identical degree of hype, however Karine Silva is dealing with the same problem to Nickal. Viviane Araujo has been a mainstay within the flyweight rankings and she or he stays a tricky out even with losses in three of her previous 4 fights. She’s close to unimaginable to complete, she’s a robust grappler, and she or he doesn’t thoughts making a combat ugly to get a win.
Silva has stormed out of the gate to start out her UFC profession, ending her first three opponents within the first spherical after which incomes a call nod over veteran Ariane da Silva. She’s able to climb the rankings and that begins with Araujo, who has sometimes solely misplaced to contenders.
It’s the calculated aggression that Silva fights with that makes her so harmful. She’s by no means in a rush, by no means scrambling to determine her subsequent transfer. When she sees a gap, she pounces; when she senses weak spot, she finishes. Silva’s win over da Silva was the primary time she needed to go to the scorecards to safe a victory.
A floor battle might flip right into a stalemate, so I favor Silva to profit from her moments on the ft and use well-timed energy punches to remain up on the playing cards. She’ll rating factors from prime place if the chance presents itself, however in any other case I count on Silva to ship a mature efficiency en path to a call win.
Decide: Silva
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Take Mauricio Ruffy’s artistic and athletic offense and blend it with a short-notice opponent with defensive deficiencies. Are you able to say… Efficiency of the Evening bonus?
James Llontop did not hit the contracted catchweight restrict for this combat after being referred to as upon two weeks in the past, so primarily based on that it’s honest to say he’s not at his greatest. I’m positive he’s entering into with the intention to win, however coming in over the restrict tells you numerous about how ready he’s to face one of many light-weight division’s most enjoyable up-and-comers.
Search for Llontop to come back out sizzling early to attempt to catch Ruffy off guard and mitigate any potential cardio points. Ruffy will use slick motion to create angles from which to choose Llontop aside earlier than touchdown a coup de grace strike. And the Combating Nerds roll on.
Ruffy by first-round knockout.
Decide: Ruffy
Preliminaries
Jonathan Martinez def. Marcus McGhee
Chris Weidman def. Eryk Anders
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson
David Onama def. Roberto Romero
Marcin Tybura (9) def. Jhonata Diniz
Ramiz Brahimaj def. Mickey Gall
Oban Elliott def. Bassil Hafez
Veronica Hardy def. Eduarda Moura
