The middleweights will undoubtedly be the celebs of UFC 319, however the division one weight class beneath ought to provide the most effective fights of the cardboard when Carlos Prates squares off with Geoff Neal. In a basic prospect vs. veteran matchup at UFC 319, Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) will look to get again on the profitable path after a slim defeat to Ian Machado-Garry.
Standing in his approach is the brick wall that’s Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC), a stalwart opponent who has made a dwelling off of dealing out huge knockouts for the final eight years. Beneath is a full battle breakdown for the premier welterweight matchup.
UFC 319 Battle Breakdown: The Grappling Recreation
Neither of those guys is thought for his or her floor sport, nevertheless it ought to play a small half in Saturday night time’s affair at UFC 319, largely at Neal’s discretion. The American will hand over two inches in peak and three inches in attain in opposition to Prates, making it possible that some form of offensive clinching is carried out into the gameplan.
When confronted with an analogous bodily drawback in opposition to Machado-Garry, Neal selected to battle on the entrance foot, crowding the longer man and repeatedly pushing him in opposition to the cage with a purpose to mitigate his longer attain. He by no means actually introduced a hazard to Machado-Garry on the fence, selecting to attempt to rack up management time over really dropping for a takedown.
Nonetheless, in a previous battle with Shavkat Rakhmonov, Neal shied away from clinching in any respect, fearing the superior submission expertise of the Kazakh fighter. This comparability ought to assist reveal how Neal plans to method an opponent like Prates throughout UFC 319 on Saturday.
Of Neal’s three matchups talked about right here, Prates is by far the worst grappler. The Brazilian confirmed a wonderful aptitude for denying outright takedown makes an attempt in his personal matchup with Machado-Garry, defending 15 of 19 pictures. An important distinction is that Machado-Garry typically selected to shoot in the midst of the Octagon whereas actively trying to pull Prates down, not maintain him on the fence.
No opponent has tried to manage Prates on the cage for an prolonged interval, opening a gap in his sport that Neal will attempt to exploit. Neal will battle on the entrance foot, and when he does provoke a grappling trade, it will likely be a dirty, disagreeable cage-holding minute or two for each fighters.
UFC 319 Battle Breakdown: Carlos Prates
Fortunately for followers, the aforementioned clinch conditions ought to represent solely a small minority of this battle at UFC 319. The remainder of the competition within the open Octagon ought to comprise a few of the most fun, technically clear placing of the yr, buoyed by an fascinating stylistic matchup.
Maybe a very powerful stylistic word is that each males primarily battle in a southpaw stance. Prates, a lefty himself, has not confronted a pure southpaw within the UFC but, however he nonetheless has some noticeable tendencies which have developed when opponents have switched stances. When confronted with a closed stance, Prates is way more keen to stress opponents, typically disregarding his attain benefit in favor of stepping ahead whereas rising his quantity.
Moreover, his leg kicks change into particularly potent due to their pure goal of the skin a part of his opponent’s leg. As at all times, although, there’s a give and take, with the closed stance partially nullifying Prates’ rear kicks to the top and physique, in addition to the rear knee accountable for ending Charlie Radtke.
Additional hurting the Brazilian is the truth that his finest strike, his cross, may have a more durable time touchdown in opposition to one other lefty. Regardless of his size, Prates shouldn’t be a jab-heavy fighter, as an alternative selecting to attend and sprinkle just a few proper arms in whereas ready for a gap to throw his energy pictures. The closed stance, as soon as once more, makes it tougher to search out the mark for one among his finest weapons.
UFC 319: Battle Breakdown: Geoff Neal
Naturally, Neal ought to profit in numerous methods from combating out of a closed stance. Prates’ elevated stress ought to assist him shut the space whereas opening home windows for the American’s finest pictures, his looping hooks. When that distance is closed, Prates has proven an inclination to depend on his size and a defensive shell. He’ll attempt to pull his head out of hazard whereas leaving his arms low to defend his physique, a tactic that’s tremendous in kickboxing vary however a probably lethal mistake within the pocket. Neal has the ability to capitalize on that mistake, particularly if it occurs a number of instances.
Outdoors of the collisions within the pocket, Neal may have a tough time discovering an offensive rhythm. He typically chooses to blitz out of his excessive guard, firing lengthy combos whereas steaming ahead to account for his brief attain. In opposition to Prates, a incredible counter-striker who persistently lands transferring backwards earlier than discovering artistic methods to angle off, that tendency ought to be an issue in UFC 319.
At distance, Neal will discover himself peppered with entrance kicks to the physique and a jab thrown with rising frequency, seeing as Machado-Garry was in a position to penetrate the excessive guard time and time once more along with his lead hand. The closed stance, whereas primarily useful, does damage Neal by opening the door for Prates’ leg kicks, a pure counter to his boxing-heavy stance.
The American has a number of defensive disadvantages right here, however none so giant that they appear prone to finish in Neal’s first knockout loss within the UFC.
UFC 319: Battle Breakdown: Ultimate Prediction
This battle at UFC 319 will probably be nearer than the betting odds predict it to be. The end result will hinge on the sport plans carried out by every fighter’s cornermen. If Prates is ready to restrain his aggression in opposition to southpaw fighters and decide at Neal from a distance, depend on his counterstriking, and keep away from making an attempt to knock out a man who has been KOed as soon as in 22 fights, he ought to win on the scorecards.
Greater than possible, although, Prates will proceed to do what has made him so common within the UFC: go for the kill. That ought to enable Neal to land a plethora of massive pictures within the pocket, leading to a late end.
Ultimate Prediction: Geoff Neal by KO, Rd. 3
